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crypto元老
crypto元老
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昨天我还在问:$BTC 76000到底还能不能扛住? 结果昨晚市场直接给答案了。 BTC不但跌破76000,一度连75000都没守住。前一天刚从76000拉到79600,转头又把涨幅基本吐了回去。 更巧的是,BTC暴跌的同时,CLARITY Act程序性投票也没能过60票这一关。 所以很多人把昨晚的暴跌直接归因于CLARITY。 但我反而有点怀疑。 BTC到底是被CLARITY砸下来的,还是本来就已经想跌,只是CLARITY刚好给了空头一个理由? 毕竟79600本身就没站稳,昨天刚修复的四小时结构很快又被打坏,连我们一直盯着的76000也失守了。 所以我会修正昨天的判断:76000→79600这波,目前更像一次失败的筑底尝试。 CLARITY没过确实是利空,但我更倾向于它只是导火索,BTC自身的弱势才是火药桶。 如果昨晚CLARITY真的拿到60票,BTC就一定不会跌破76000吗?
crypto元老
crypto元老
BTC shows a double blow to both bulls and bears, can 76000 still hold?
$BTC In the past couple of days, both bulls and bears have been thoroughly cleaned up. Yesterday, it just surged from around 76,000 all the way to 79,600, but the bears hadn't recovered, and today BTC suddenly turned around and fell back to around 77,000. Those who chased short positions yesterday got pulled down, and those who chased long spots got slashed again. In two days, before the direction was figured out, the bulls and bears were already killed. Why did things go this way? I think the problem is, the two answers the market is really waiting for still haven't come out. One is the CLARITY Act. The latest version has already absorbed 126 substantive amendments proposed by the Democrats, but the next procedural vote requires 60 votes, while the Republicans only have 53 seats, meaning at least 7 Democrats or independents are still needed. This is certainly important for crypto, but the question now is: whether it can pass is not yet an answer. The other is the FOMC. Currently, market expectations for a 25 basis point Fed rate hike are already very high, and macro pressure itself hasn't disappeared. So BTC isn't without any positive news, nor is it suddenly all negative news; rather, neither positive nor negative news has truly materialized, so the market can only keep trading expectations. The technical aspect is also clear. Yesterday, BTC surged to a high of 79,600, but the resistance between 78,000 and 78,500 didn't really hold, and today the price fell back below the MA20 and EMA20. So I can't yet define yesterday's wave as a "successful bottoming"; it's more like a failed breakout after a bottoming attempt. Next, I actually refocused on 7600

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