At 2 a.m. on September 17, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate hike.
This is the first rate hike since July 2023. Waller was hawkish throughout, and the dot plot shows one more hike this year, with the median rate locked at 4.1% for next year and the year after.
The market exploded. Gold plunged $100, the dollar index broke through 100, and U.S. stocks turned down across the board.
But what about Bitcoin?
One hour after the decision was announced, BTC dropped to $75,355. Then, it climbed back up—to $75,813.
A 24-hour drop of less than 1%.
In the Powell era, BTC would often drop 5% on rate hike days. In the Waller era, BTC fell 0.5% on rate hike days.
The market has changed. Or rather, the market stopped caring a long time ago.
Why? Because the bad news had already been fully priced in half a month ago.
On September 15, the Senate procedural vote on the Clarity Act failed 49-50. This bill was supposed to be the federal regulatory framework for the crypto market but got stuck at the 60-vote threshold, missing by 11 votes.
Once the news broke, BTC plunged from 78,000 to 74,900, a single-day drop of 4.6%. The crypto market liquidated $771 million, Coinbase plummeted 8%, and Strategy fell 5%.
What needed to fall had already fallen then.
So when the rate hike actually landed, BTC only dropped less than 1%.
This is the "bad news fully priced in" scenario—not good news, but not worse news either.
The real bombshell is below.
CoinGlass liquidation map shows: in the $75,982 to $83,575 range, cumulative short liquidation pressure reached $4.79 billion.
And the long liquidation scale below? $2.05 billion.
Shorts above are 2.5 times the longs below.
What does this mean?
As long as the price rises back above $76,000, entering the dense short zone, it will trigger short covering. Short covering = forced buying = price continues to rise = triggers higher-level short liquidations. A chain reaction, one link after another.
In the past 24 hours, the market added a large number of shorts. BTC short liquidations totaled $53.63 million, longs only $32.16 million. Shorts are adding positions, betting BTC will continue to fall.
But they bet on the wrong direction.
What did Jiang Zhuoer say?
Founder of the Leibite mining pool, one of the most influential bulls in the Chinese community.
On September 16, he clearly stated: he expects the market to "fall first then rise" after the Fed decision, with BTC possibly dropping below $75,000 before rebounding to $83,000 to $84,000.
The post-decision movement was almost exactly as he said—first down to $75,355, then a rebound.
$75,000 is the low point of this drop. The next target is $80,000 to $84,000.
But risks remain.
Short-term holders are accelerating their surrender. On-chain data shows BTC transferred to exchanges surged from 19,400 to 33,100 coins, with 23,200 coins at a floating loss—this is the largest stop-loss selling in nearly a month.
Kraken inflows exceed 6,000 coins, Binance inflows exceed 10,000 coins. Recent buyers are cutting losses.
But note: these are short-term holders, not long-term holders.
Long-term holders have not moved. ETFs are buying. This week, spot BTC ETFs had a net inflow of about $550 million.
On one side, panicked retail is cutting losses; on the other, institutions are buying at low prices.
The moment the rate hike bad news lands is the countdown to short covering.
$75,000 is not the end, but the launchpad for the next round of squeezes.
$4.79 billion in shorts are waiting for a trigger point.
$BTC$ETH$XAU#美联储三年来首次加息25个基点
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