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峰哥的交易日记
峰哥的交易日记
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76450美元的BTC,你慌了吗? 先看表面:利空三连击,但价格没崩。 议息会议后市场懵了,加息25bp到3.75-4%,主席Warsh张嘴就是“通胀还没好,年内可能再加”。同一天,市场结构法案程序性投票49-50没过。两天ETF净流出7.46亿。跌破箱体后没有加速,反而在76000-76500盘整。该跌不跌,必有妖。 第一件事:加息是真利空,但市场已经“定价过头”了。 美联储9月16日加息25bp,点阵图显示年内还有一次,利率要到4.1%。市场第一反应是“加息周期重开”,风险资产全部挨打。 加息消息出来那天,BTC最低74900,现在还在76450。为什么砸不下去?因为市场在加息前已经把最坏的预期打进去了。 第二件事:CLARITY法案被否,但真正的核弹在众议院。 参议院49-50否决了CLARITY法案的程序性投票,市场结构法案卡住。同一周,众议院金融服务委员会28-21推进了战略比特币储备法案。 参议院:监管法案继续拖(短线利空) 众议院:要把罚没/储备的BTC锁仓20年(中线核弹级利好) 监管叙事从“可能落地”变成“继续拖”,但储备叙事从“没人提”变成了“正式立法推进”。 第三件事:ETF在跑,但结构根本没坏。 美国现货BTC ETF两天净流出7.46亿,IBIT、FBTC是赎回主力。但累计净流入还有545亿,ETF AUM约950亿,占市值6.2%。 结构根本没坏,只是边际买盘暂停。 多空对决,你自己看 一边是: 加息周期重开,流动性叙事短期不利 CLARITY法案卡住,监管预期落空 ETF两天流出7.46亿,边际买盘暂停 价格跌破76700活跃成本,鲸鱼在派发 10年期美债收益率一度站上5%,风险资产头风 一边是: 加息利空落地,该跌不跌 战略比特币储备法案28-21推进,锁仓20年 ETF累计净流入545亿,AUM 950亿,结构没坏 STH成本71300是链上大防线,第一次到大概率反弹 日线中期结构未坏,8月大底62k-65k仍在 强阻力:77100-77500(原箱体地板,必须放量站稳才算修复) 次阻力:78000-78600(空头防守) 大阻力:79500-82200(9月供给区+公司金库成本80500) 当前枢轴:76000-76500(多空拉锯) 近支撑:75500-75000(本周低点,失守加速) 链上支撑:73500 / 71300(STH成本,大防线) 更深需求:68000-65000 操作策略 短线选手: 75500-75800轻仓试多,止损74800(日线收盘计)。77100-77500减多或轻仓试空,止损78100。 波段玩家: 等日线收盘站上77100再考虑加仓,回踩76500-76800接,止损75800,目标78600-80000。 长线信仰者: 73500-71300区域分批定投。71300是链上大防线,第一次到更适合减空而不是加空。 拿1-2年,赌的是储备立法+ETF存量+减半周期。 空头延续场景: 4H收盘跌破75000,反抽75200-75500不过,空单目标73500→71300,止损收回76000上方。71300第一次到,减空不加空。 加息落地、法案被否、ETF流出——三颗雷炸完,BTC还在76450。这叫该跌不跌。 76700是活跃成本,71300是STH成本。你猜机构会在哪个位置接? 76450的BTC,跟120000的BTC是同一个东西。 变的不是价值,是你的情绪。 未来5-10天只看两件事: ETF是否停止日均3亿级别流出 日线能否收回77100 两件都不给,就按75k-77.5k网格。给了再顺势加。 76450这个位置,你敢加仓吗? $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美联储三年来首次加息25个基点
峰哥的交易日记
峰哥的交易日记
A year ago, ZEC was still lying in the $40 corner, ignored by everyone. A year later, it surged into the top ten by market cap, with the price breaking $1300. It rose 2300%. But if you only focus on the candlestick chart, you completely miss the point of this rally. ZEC’s rise is not about the price itself. It’s about the valuation of "privacy coins having a compliant institutional entry point for the first time." Let me start with a number: 3%. Grayscale’s ZCSH, two weeks after listing, has AUM exceeding $500 million, holding over 550,000 ZEC — directly locking up 3% of the total circulating supply. This is not futures exposure. This is real money absorbing spot on the secondary market. Cumulative net inflows exceed $70 million, plus $100 million in physical subscriptions completed by DCG-affiliated entities. In the first 11 trading days after listing, ZCSH’s cumulative inflows reached $179 million, doubling AUM from the initial listing. Who is buying? Not retail investors. It’s traditional capital sitting behind brokerage accounts. In the past decade, the biggest problem for privacy coins was never "lack of story." It was that institutions couldn’t build compliant positions. Custody, private key management, compliance review — each was a wall. Grayscale tore down that wall. ZCSH allows traditional investors to buy ZEC without touching private keys or worrying about custody, just by opening a brokerage account. This is the first time in privacy coin history. Look at the on-chain data. This time it’s not just narrative. In February 2026, shielded transactions of ZEC reached a historical high of 59.3%. After the Ironwood upgrade, it again approached this level. Currently, about 4.4 million ZEC are in shielded pools, accounting for about 26% of circulating supply. Another metric shows shielded transactions now account for 90% of total network transaction volume, with shielded supply around 4.2 million ZEC, also a record high. What does this mean? Privacy is not just a story. Privacy is being genuinely used. In the AI Agent era, on-chain analysis is getting stronger, financial data tracking more detailed. When every transfer of yours can be fully exposed, "optional privacy" shifts from a "geek toy" to a "must-have." The exact words from Grayscale’s Chief Legal Officer: The Zcash ecosystem, after nearly a decade of development, is entering a new institutional phase. But there’s one thing you must know. On September 17, ZEC futures open interest surged to a record high. On the Hyperliquid platform, ZEC’s open interest nominal value rose to $840 million, a 60% jump in 24 hours, ranking behind BTC, ETH, and HYPE. Leverage is entering the market. When ZEC broke $1000 on September 4, about $36.6 million in leveraged positions were liquidated, with $34.5 million from shorts. Shorts were forced to cover → need to buy ZEC → price keeps rising → more shorts get liquidated. A classic short squeeze positive feedback loop. The higher it rises, the more exhilarating; the fall is equally brutal. Has ZEC’s valuation logic changed? Yes. Previously, ZEC was a "privacy coin." The market priced it based on the sector valuation. Now ZCSH has turned it into an institutionally accessible asset. The market prices it based on "entry valuation." SOL’s ETF taught Wall Street to buy high-performance public chains. ZEC’s ETF is teaching Wall Street to buy privacy. The valuation ceiling of the second lesson is much higher than the first. Because privacy is not just a narrative of one chain. Privacy is a fundamental financial infrastructure demand. When AI makes everything transparent, privacy becomes scarce. And Zcash is the only privacy asset institutions can buy through brokerage accounts. Monero can’t do this. Because of its mandatory privacy model, custody layers don’t work. $ETH $ETH $ZEC

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