On September 16, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the rate to 3.75%-4.00%. The first hike in three years.
The last time rates were raised, BTC crashed 20% immediately.
This time?
BTC hovered around $75,000 without any significant dip. When Powell held his press conference, the price didn’t even experience a second wave of decline, just oscillating between $75,000 and $77,000.
Rates went up, but no drop. This fact alone is more unsettling than a drop.
Because the market is pricing in one question: "Is this just the beginning, or the only time?"
CME data shows about a 50% chance of another rate hike in October, and nearly a 90% chance of at least one more hike this year. The dot plot is even clearer—16 policymakers believe hikes are still needed this year, compared to only 6 in June.
Powell’s exact words: "Financial conditions are not restrictive; this hike is a partial removal of accommodation."
In plain language: the bullets aren’t all spent yet.
So the question now isn’t "Will it drop?" but "How much will it drop, and how to handle it?"
No guessing the direction. Here are three scenarios; match yourself accordingly.
Scenario A: Rate hike happens in October (about 50% probability)
What will happen:
The hike is already half priced in. But the psychological impact of a "second hike" is much greater than the first. The first was "finally here," the second is "it really continues."
BTC will likely test $72,000-$73,000. CryptoQuant analysts point out that $71,300 is the average cost of circulating BTC in the market; breaking below means many holders move from profit to loss, triggering a chain reaction.
How to act:
Reduce your position to less than half before the hike. Hold USDT, not illusions.
Wait for a pullback. Start buying in batches around $73,000, add more at $72,000. Don’t buy all at once; split into three batches.
What to watch:
Within 48 hours after the hike, whether BTC ETFs switch from net outflows to net inflows. From September 8 to 11, ETFs had a net outflow of $462 million, reversing August’s full-month inflow of $3.52 billion. If ETFs continue bleeding after the hike, it means institutions are withdrawing, and $73,000 won’t hold.
Scenario B: No hike in October, but dot plot remains hawkish (about 40% probability)
What will happen:
Short-term positive. No hike itself is the opposite of "all good news priced in"—the market will breathe a sigh of relief.
BTC might push to $78,000-$80,000. $78,000 is the middle Bollinger Band, $80,000 is a liquidity concentration zone. These aren’t random marks; many are waiting to break even there.
How to act:
Don’t chase highs. $78,000 to $80,000 is a sell zone, not a buy zone.
"Skipping October" doesn’t mean "stopping hikes." Huatai Securities believes December will be the next real battleground—because Powell has canceled forward guidance, each meeting is an independent "blind box."
What to watch:
Powell’s comments on the "terminal rate." If he hints 4.1% is the end, the market will rally. If he says "data-dependent," it means nothing; don’t read too much into it.
Scenario C: Direct 50bp hike in October (very low probability but must prepare)
What will happen:
Risk assets will be fully repriced. BTC breaking below $70,000 is not alarmist.
The 10-year Treasury yield has already touched 5.01%. If the hike is 50bp, it could jump above 5.5%. Once the global asset pricing anchor is pulled up, no asset can remain unaffected.
How to act:
Clear all leverage. Only keep spot base positions.
This is not a bottom-fishing moment; it’s a survival moment.
What to watch:
10-year Treasury yield. If it breaks 5.5%, do nothing but wait.
No matter the scenario, these three things must be done weekly:
First, watch CME’s rate hike probability. If it jumps from 50% to over 70%, the market is panic pricing—reduce positions. If it falls below 30%, pressure eases, and you can be a bit optimistic.
Second, watch BTC ETF weekly net inflows. BlackRock’s IBIT absorbed $1.08 billion in 20 days, but Grayscale’s GBTC lost $255 million in the same period. Positive net inflows mean institutions are still buying; two consecutive weeks of net outflows means don’t hold.
Third, watch the 10-year Treasury yield. It’s the pricing benchmark for all assets. If it rises, everything you hold is being revalued.
Don’t leverage more than 3x. BTC is stuck between $75,000 and $78,000, with liquidity traps above and below. Until direction is clear, leverage is just giving money to exchanges.
Before direction is clear, saving bullets is more important than firing them all.
You think you’re bottom-fishing, but you’re just catching knives.
$BTC$ETH$SOL
Disclaimer: OKX Orbit content is provided for informational purposes only. Learn more
