BTC at $78,100, do you dare to chase?
First, look at the surface: three major bearish factors bombarded, but the price didn't fall.
On September 15, a big bearish candle hit near 76,000, scaring retail investors into cutting losses overnight. What happened next? On the 16th-17th, a long lower shadow was left, and on the 18th, a bullish candle directly pushed back to 78,100. A 2% rebound from 76,200 within 24 hours, with 76,000 fiercely defended—don't hand over your chips in panic.
First thing: The rate hike landed, but the market didn't collapse.
The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points on September 16-17, with the dot plot leaning hawkish, hinting at possibly one more hike this year. As soon as the news came out, BTC instantly dropped to 76,000.
Sounds scary? But look at the chart—it pulled back right after the drop.
What the market fears most is "not knowing if there will be a hike." Now that the boot has dropped, it actually gives bulls a breather. Oil prices have recently fallen, tech stocks rebounded, and risk appetite is recovering.
Second thing: Shorts got liquidated, but this is not a new bull market.
On September 17-18, tens of millions to over a hundred million dollars in short positions were liquidated, pushing the price quickly from 76,300 back above 78,000. A typical leveraged short squeeze.
This rebound was not driven by buying pressure but forced short covering.
From September 15-16, a total of $750 million flowed out, and only on the 17th did it turn positive by $159.5 million. Spot buying did not expand in sync.
Short squeeze ≠ trend reversal. This is a technical correction, not the start of a new bull market.
Third thing: On-chain data tells a painful truth.
Corporate treasuries have only bought 5,900 BTC in nearly three months, with an average cost of 80,500—most companies are currently at unrealized losses.
But on the other hand: the proportion of loss-making outputs dropped from nearly 60% to 27%, and long-term holders are quietly accumulating. Exchange reserves continue their long-term decline.
In plain language: those who can't hold are cutting losses, those who can hold are picking up coins.
Below 76,000 is the psychological defense line for most. If held, expect oscillation upward; if broken, 71,300 is next.
Bull vs. bear, you decide.
On one side:
Rate hike landed, short-term bearish factors exhausted
Short liquidations over a hundred million, selling pressure temporarily exhausted
Long-term holders still accumulating, exchange reserves declining
House advances strategic Bitcoin reserve bill, VanEck calls for 100k next year
On the other side:
ETF fund flows unstable, institutions deleveraging
Corporate treasuries at unrealized losses, new buying cautious
Funding rates turned positive (bulls paying), slightly crowded
78,000-82,000 is a dense supply zone, heavy resistance
Resistance above: 78,500-79,000 → 79,600-79,800 (key) → 82,000 (September high)
Support below: 76,800 → 76,200-76,500 (iron bottom) → 75,500 → 71,300 (short-term holder cost)
Trading strategy
Short-term players:
Wait for a pullback to 76,800-77,200 to lightly test longs, stop loss below 76,000, target first at 78,800-79,200 for partial profit-taking. Add more on volume breakout above 79,500, target 81,500-82,000.
Bearish scenario:
If unable to hold above 78,500 and 4H shows long upper shadow + volume stagnation, lightly test shorts near 79,000, stop loss above 79,800, target 76,500-75,800.
Breakout confirmation:
Daily close above 79,800 + continuous ETF inflows → add to longs, target 82,000-86,000
Break below 75,500 and close steady → open 71,300, then reassess bottom fishing
At 76,000 you fear a crash, at 78,000 you fear chasing highs.
So when exactly do you want to buy? Wait to slap your thigh at 100k?
Short term is a consolidation market, don't mistake short squeezes for a new bull market. But mid to long term—only one or two rate hikes, ETF inflows resume, 82,000 supply zone digested—any one of these conditions fulfilled, BTC will make you rethink what "digital gold" means.
At 78,100, do you dare to add to your position?
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