UNI at $8.95, do you still dare to chase?
First, look at the surface: up 35%-45% in the past week, more than doubled in a month, climbing from $4 straight to $9.2-9.4, while BTC was still hovering around 80,000 during the same period. UNI has completely decoupled from the market, running an independent trend. Market cap is 5.5 billion, TVL 3.8-4.3 billion, trading volume expanding—starting from the June low of 2.3-4, hitting 9.4 in three weeks, this is the acceleration phase.
First thing: SEC didn’t name UNI, but the framework matches
On September 17, the SEC released an “innovation exemption”—a conditional five-year exemption for tokenized securities trading venues (TSV), allowing tokenized US stocks to be traded on public chains via permissioned AMM/liquidity pools.
The SEC didn’t explicitly approve Uniswap, but funding went to the “compliant RWA gateway” premium.
Previously, institutions dared not touch DeFi due to compliance concerns; now there is a five-year pilot window.
Tokenized US stocks can be traded in Uniswap’s permissioned pools.
Second thing: Burning is not the whole story, but it’s not a money printer either
By the end of 2025, governance will open protocol fees, with part of the fees going into the TokenJar; only burning UNI can withdraw fee assets (Firepit). There is also a one-time burn of about 100 million tokens from the treasury. In 2026, fee scope expands to multi-chain and v4; the burn address holdings have exceeded 110 million tokens, with monthly burns reaching millions of dollars.
This pushes UNI from a “pure governance token” toward “protocol revenue hedging supply.”
However—
LPs take most of the fees; the protocol only gets a small slice.
Burning hedges growth budget/unlocking, not guaranteed net deflation.
Third thing: Technicals tell you 8.95 is a "peak and wait for buyers" level
Large scale: The rebound started from the June low; the monthly chart has left the long-term bottom; mid-term measures see 12.7 or even higher—but that’s a wedge projection and needs time.
Mid-short term: Three weeks from 6 to 9.4, an acceleration phase; 8.95 is right in the pullback/consolidation zone after the surge.
Momentum: RSI fell from overbought; price stalled after touching the upper Bollinger Band, indicating "peak and turnover," not a broken trend.
Upside: 9.20-9.40 (recent high) → 9.52-9.93 (resistance wall) → 11-12.7
Downside: 8.50-8.28 (first support) → 7.85-7.67 (strong support) → 6.4-6.5 (weekly retest)
Bull vs. bear, judge for yourself
On one side:
SEC innovation exemption opens compliant RWA gateway
Fee burning implemented; burn address holds over 110 million tokens
Whales withdraw from Binance, Bybit, OKX; spot outflows support the rally
Governance temperature check expands to Circle’s Arc chain, vote on September 23
DEX leader position solid, TVL 3.8-4.3 billion
On the other side:
Doubled in a month; good news largely priced in
Fed raised rates 25bp to 3.75-4.00%, dot plot hawkish
BTC near 81,000, ETF funds flow in and out repeatedly, liquidity not loose
CLARITY Act failed in Senate; regulatory legislation stalled
Exemption is a five-year pilot with limits, not full open access
Trading strategy
Bullish bias:
Wait for pullback to 8.50-8.28, 1-4 hour volume contraction and stop of decline or moving average recovery, then lightly go long
More conservative is to wait for 7.85-8.00, a reasonable retracement zone for this acceleration phase
Targets: first watch 9.2, then 9.5-9.9; only after breaking and holding above 9.93 consider 11-12
Stop loss: below 7.85 without quick recovery, this pulse likely ends, exit
Add on breakout:
Only consider adding slightly on pullback to 9.2-9.3 if daily close holds above 9.52 with volume support
Risk control:
If surge fails to break 9.4, long upper shadow, fee rate turns positive and positions crowded, reduce longs or hedge short term
If below 8.28 and 4-hour can’t recover, reduce leverage first; don’t add mid-way
Before September 23, watch Arc fee proposal temperature check results; good news may also lead to “buy the rumor, sell the fact.”
UNI has two advantages over ordinary altcoins:
SEC permissioned AMM narrative matches v4 product and ongoing fee burning. So it can strengthen independently during a rate hike week.
But 8.95 has already priced in much of the “exemption + burning.”
Current price is better suited to wait for 8.3-7.85 pullback, not chasing high with leverage. Macro doesn’t support a full bull market; how far the independent trend can go depends on whether tokenized trading and burning can turn from news into weekly data.
At 8.95, are you chasing high or waiting for a pullback? $BTC$ETH$UNI
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