渔夫｜深耕加密
渔夫｜深耕加密
坚持加密货币交易学习和实践， 现货、合约、Meme， 不喊单，不挖坑， 抵制一切杀猪盘， OKB长期看好者。
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#US September Nonfarm Payrolls Increase by Only 29,000, Unemployment Rate Rises to 4.2%
🎣 Nonfarm added just 29,000 jobs, the fish didn’t die, but the water got murky
#Nonfarm #Fed #Employment #Macro #
The market expected 84,000, but the Labor Department released 29,000.
Unemployment rate nudged from 4.1% to 4.2%, and July and August jobs were revised down by 60,000. July changed from “up 21,000” to “down 10,000,” August cut from 162,000 to 133,000. This isn’t a crash; it’s like thinking you caught a bite today, but when you reel in, there are two fewer fish in the net than in the morning.
The official wording is very restrained: little change. Indeed, not much. Since March, the unemployment rate has hovered in a narrow band between 4.1% and 4.3%, with 7.1 million unemployed. Healthcare is still hiring, adding only 17,000 jobs this month, compared to a 12-month average of 33,000. The private sector added 46,000, government cut 17,000, offsetting each other, leaving the headline at 29,000. Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% monthly, 3.0% year-over-year; wages haven’t gone crazy.
The trap is treating soft data as a positive.
US stock futures are climbing, 10-year Treasury yields are retreating from highs to around 5.2%, and the probability of a rate hike in October has dropped to just over 10%, with the odds of holding steady rising to just above 80%. Jobs are weak, but money is happy—for now, the rate hike knife might be sheathed temporarily.
The knife is still on the table. Dallas Fed’s Logan said the same day that inflation isn’t under control, and rates may need to rise further. On one hand, new job growth is down to a third of expectations; on the other, some think hikes are still needed. This kind of split is more exhausting than a one-way drop.
For those of us watching the market and the end-of-month bills, don’t translate “higher odds of no rate hike” into “go all in.” Soft nonfarm data only means hiring is slowing, not that liquidity has returned. Crypto is tied to Treasury yields and the dollar by a single rope; just because the rope loosens doesn’t mean the fish are already in the net.
My own three steps: reduce leverage first, size positions to what lets me sleep at night, and don’t change beliefs based on one data point.
Are you cutting tonight, or watching?
$BTC $ETH $OKB
Today is not just one piece of good news, but four accounts turning positive simultaneously.
Bitcoin touched around $86,900 intraday, up about 3% in 24 hours, the highest since September 23; Ethereum reached around 2750, SOL and XRP followed with about 3% gains, and the total market cap returned to approximately $2.9 trillion.
#Bitcoin #ETF #FederalReserve #Uptober #NonFarm
① ETF funds are back On October 1, the US Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net inflow of about $103 million. BlackRock IBIT added about $196 million in one day, while Fidelity was exiting. The previous day had an outflow of $149 million, breaking a nine-day inflow streak; this inflow reversed the direction. In August and September, ETFs saw inflows of about $3.5 billion and $2.6 billion respectively, so the foundation remains solid.
② Investment banks raised target prices Citi raised the 12-month Bitcoin target from $82,000 to $113,000, and Ethereum from 2240 to 3030. The market likes to hear these numbers, but it doesn't mean prices will reach them.
③ Rate hike expectations eased The probability of a 25 basis point hike in October dropped from nearly 65% a week ago to around 26% now. Federal Reserve officials stated they are not in a hurry to raise rates again, so risk assets have already priced in a "pause."
④ Shorts were partially squeezed About $90 million to $120 million in short positions were liquidated within an hour, with about $320 million liquidated across the market in 24 hours. Once the price passed $86,000, stop-loss orders helped push it further.
Adding a seasonal narrative: In the past 13 Octobers, Bitcoin rose in 10 of them, with an average gain close to 19%. Bitcoin rose about 40% in Q3, the strongest quarter since the end of 2024. Some call this Uptober.
There is only one pitfall: this round is not a safe haven. The 10-year US Treasury yield remains between 5.25%–5.34%, the 30-year touched 5.62%, and the US dollar index hit an 18-month high. Gold fell 8.5% in September, while Bitcoin rose about 12% in the same period. QCP’s judgment is straightforward: this is a flow-driven trade, not an inflation hedge. The $82,500 level was tested three times this week but not broken; $87,400 is the threshold to $90,000. Tonight’s US Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to add about 90,000 jobs with a 4.1% unemployment rate. If the data is strong, the pause in rate hikes story could be revised.
What you are buying today is ETF inflows, rate hike pause, and short squeezes—not the starting gun of a new bull market.
Which one are you watching more closely: the ETF or tonight’s Nonfarm?
$BTC $ETH $OKB
+47.41%
Snapshot at Oct 02, 2026, 19:21
🎣 86000 broke again, I'll hold off on the rod for now
Checked at midnight, $BTC stood above 86000 again.
Numbers move fast. Comparisons move slow: On September 21, it already went above 86300, reaching near 87000 at the peak, shorts got squeezed hard, then it dropped back to 82000–85000, lingering below this line for almost ten days. On October 1, inflation data was weak, price briefly surged past 85000, after about $3.08 billion net inflow into ETFs over nine days, Wednesday saw a net outflow of $149 million, bulls didn’t hold.
The 10-year US Treasury yield is still around 5.3%, this isn’t a resistance-free straight line.
So the "so fast" feeling is an illusion. The candlestick moves fast, but it’s the same hurdle being crossed a second time, slowly.
My own ledger looks worse. During the high leverage episodes in 2024, the day of the breakout was the most exciting, the next day the account was the quietest. This time at 86000 I didn’t add positions, instead I did three things first.
1 See if it holds or is just a wick. The September 21 candle was also called a breakout but didn’t close above.
2 Check if spot and ETFs follow. Futures can push the price up, but if no one buys with real money, it won’t hold.
3 Watch 82000. The lower boundary of this week’s range is still intact; breaking 86000 doesn’t mean the range is invalid.
One pitfall is enough: mistaking "touching again" for "a new main rally." The September rise liquidated shorts; after falling back, it’s usually the chasing longs who get liquidated. I’ve been taught well and remember the numbers clearly, so this time my hands are slower than my mouth.
What really matters above isn’t the 86000 integer, but whether the September high of 87400 can be surpassed. If it does, 90000 becomes a topic again. If not, it’s still a back-and-forth between 82000 and 87000.
Citigroup set a 12-month target at 113000, that’s a research report, not tonight’s take-profit order. There’s about 30% room above the previous high of 120000, and about 30% of the retracement hasn’t been recovered yet.
The bobber moved, but that doesn’t mean the fish is in the net. Recently, I only watch one number in this river: can the close stay continuously above 86000.
Are you holding or just watching now?
$BTC #BTC #BitcoinMarket #OKXPlanet
📌 October is not Uptober, it is a month for direction confirmation
Bitcoin stands near $83,000 entering October. Historically, the median October gain is about 11%, but the 10-year US Treasury yield has already touched above 5.2%.
On one side, the calendar says "rising month," on the other, the rate hike cycle has restarted. On September 16, the Fed raised rates to 3.75%–4.00%, ending nearly three years of pause. Another meeting is scheduled around October 28. Pricing for another 25 basis points hike dropped from about 70% to just over 40% this week, so expectations are fluctuating.
I see October in three tiers, not just a slogan.
1. Baseline: oscillate between 80,000–88,000 with a 50% probability. If non-farm payrolls and CPI don’t exceed expectations, and ETFs still maintain net inflows, the price will grind back and forth between 80,800 and 87,360. This is the most time-consuming and easiest to be influenced by short-term sentiment.
2. Upward: reclaim 87,360, target 90,000–92,000. Two things must happen simultaneously: no rate hike on October 28, or a hike with a dovish statement; spot ETF weekly inflows return above one billion dollars. Surpassing 87,360 opens the upper channel that wasn’t broken in September. Citi’s mention of 113,000 is a more distant scenario, not this month’s task.
3. Downward: break below 80,800, first look at 75,000. On the 30-day liquidation chart, about $4.35 billion longs are clustered near 74,000. If it breaks 80,800 and ETFs simultaneously turn to outflows, this leverage will find its own exit. This is not a crash scenario, but a clearing scenario.
⚠️ This month, focus on one pitfall: using “October must rise” to leverage up. In the past 15 years, October rose 10 times, but August and September have already risen this year, so seasonality has been partially front-run. US Treasuries are at multi-year highs, Bitcoin yields nothing, it’s a matter of who’s willing to hold overnight. Historical win rate is not a reason for position sizing.
The calendar has just three key days: · October 2, Non-farm payrolls · Mid-October, CPI · October 28, Federal Reserve
The first two days decide the pricing for the third day, and the third day decides which tier the close will be in. Ethereum is near $2,700, with a testnet upgrade around October 6 as its own catalyst. The big picture still depends on whether Bitcoin can hold 80,000.
Position sizing should be based on a consolidation month, not a celebration month. Observe above 80,800, reduce if broken, discuss adding if 87,360 holds. Leave the rest to the data, not slogans.
Which tier will you position yourself in this month?
$BTC $ETH $OKB
1480 failed twice to hold, ZEC is still inside the box
📉 Last night $ZEC surged to 1480 twice but couldn't hold. Now it’s closing around 1437, back inside the box.
The high on September 27 was 1697, and the low two days later was 1355. From the high, it dropped about 20%. The rebound stopped at 1480, not a trend reversal but a retracement after the drop, hitting resistance with no buyers. Today's high was 1481, low 1398, touched 1480 again but still didn’t hold.
📌 I’m watching two numbers.
1480 — only if it holds on the daily chart can it be considered strong. If it can’t hold, forget about 1697 for now.
1400 to 1450 is the current box. If it breaks below 1400, the next support is 1355. Today’s low touched 1398, so this line isn’t stable.
I’m not chasing longs at 1480. Twice failing at the same level, if it fails a third time, chasing longs means handing money to sellers above. If you’re short above, don’t add positions in the middle of the box. The box isn’t broken, so there’s no price level to add.
⏰ Are you short above or long below? Write your entry price. If 1480 breaks or 1400 breaks, I’ll change my view.
I only reply to those who have studied. I don’t reply otherwise.
$ZEC
The spike at 85650, I didn't chase it
📉 On September 30, the intraday low hit 85650, closing at 84134. Today, October 1, the high was 84491, currently just above 83,000. The spike is done, no one is catching above it.
I didn't chase it last night. 85650 is not my entry price. Spot is still held, no contracts added above 85,000. The most common use of such a spike is to first stop out short positions, then leave those chasing longs on the spike tip. Some are already asking what to do with their short positions. I only recognize one rule: if the daily candle doesn't close back above 85000, this spike doesn't count as a breakout.
📌 Just these few numbers.
September 30 high 85650, low 82902, close 84134.
October 1 high 84491, low 83411.
From the spike tip back to now, about two thousand dollars. The pullback isn't large, enough to show 85650 wasn't firmly held. A high point not firmly held can't be used as a reason to go long.
⏰ Friday night 8:30 PM Nonfarm Payrolls. I won't make a fuss about employment numbers. Only one thing matters: is 85650 still this week's high? If yes, this spike is a false breakout. If the daily closes above 85000, I'll change my stance.
Did you stop out last night? Where? Write it down. On Friday I'll post the results; if your price matches, I'll reply.
$BTC
#Nonfarm #FalseBreakout
Micron's numbers are out, no surge after hours.
Q4 revenue 54.23 billion, market expected 51.49 billion. Adjusted EPS $33.42, expected $31.83. Gross margin 87%, expected 86.2%. Next quarter guidance 61.5 billion, expected only 56.8 billion. Data center segment 18 billion, last quarter 11.5 billion, gross margin 90%.
The books are full. The stock price didn't continue to jump, slight fluctuation after hours.
I don't take this as a signal to open a crypto position. Orders remain, but that doesn't mean $BTC will follow tonight. Broadcom's last time also had strong books, guidance was off by two points and still got crushed first. This time there's not even a crush, indicating the term "beat expectations" has lost its value.
Did you move after hours? If yes, write the price. If not, write no movement. Replying "learned" I'll pretend I didn't see.
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
Last year during the National Day holiday, there were several golden dogs; this year, most likely only local dogs remain
126,000 vs 83,000.
Last year BTC hit a new high during National Day, this year it hasn't even recovered two-thirds of that peak.
Last year wasn't holiday magic, it was resonance: Binance users surged from 150 million to 500 million USD in a few days, PALU, Si, and customer service Xiao He all took off together, Four.meme suppressed Pump.fun's launch volume, over 100,000 new addresses entered. Coupled with CZ and He Yi catching the meme, BNB also rose to 1300.
This year doesn't match that. BTC is fluctuating around 83,000, greed index 67–71, hotspots scattered in SOL, BSC, and stock tokenization, no single Chinese narrative like last year.
One pitfall: treating last year's memory as this year's position. The real meal is the post-holiday plunge—about 19 billion USD liquidated, many Chinese Meme tokens dropped over 95% in one day.
There will be local dogs during the holiday, but it's hard to have golden dogs that can reach billions and be officially recognized by exchanges.
This National Day, are you watching the market or taking a break?
#国庆 #金狗 #Meme #BTC #BSC #cryptocurrency
What's going on? $BTC and $ETH suddenly surged
Tonight just happens to coincide with the PCE release window, so I'll first check the market and data. It's the data, not someone suddenly pumping the market. The August PCE released at 20:30 Beijing time just came out, with the core below expectations, hitting the 50% probability for a rate hike in October.
The official numbers are as follows:
• Core PCE month-over-month rose 0.2%, market expected 0.3%.
• Core year-over-year 3.0%, expected 3.3%, previous was also 3.3%.
• Overall year-over-year 3.4%, expected 3.7%.
• Overall month-over-month still 0.3%, roughly as expected.
The Fed focuses on the core. The core dropped from two consecutive months at 3.3% to 3.0%, exactly hitting the "October can wait and see" line. September just had a 25 basis point hike, with rates at 3.75%–4.00%. Yesterday, the probability of a rate hike dropped from over 70% to about half, and this data further supports holding off.
Don't just look at inflation. Personal consumption nominally rose 0.9% month-over-month, actually up 0.6%, people are still spending. So this isn't a recession trade, it's a "inflation isn't as sticky as expected, rate hikes can pause" trade. The dollar and US Treasury yields are down, so crypto first pushes up.
The catch is here: December rate hike expectations were still above 70% yesterday; this just shifts the bullet from October to later, not putting the gun away. Friday still has the nonfarm payrolls. If the surge can't hold above 85,000, treat it as a data pulse, not a new trend.
$BTC $ETH $OKB
9.29 Crypto Market Update: 83,000 Is Not a Reversal, Just a Breather Before the Monthly Close
BTC is oscillating between 83,000 and 84,000 USD, ETH around 2,700 USD. The weekly chart has pulled back from 87,000, but the daily chart hasn't broken below 82,500. One number says it all: September is still up about 7% so far, potentially breaking the old pattern since 2013 of "red in August, never green in September"; Q3 has gained over 40% cumulatively.
Macro factors are not cooperating. The 10-year US Treasury yield has touched about 5.25%, the highest since 2007; oil prices remain above 90 USD; and Wednesday brings the PCE report. Risk assets should be under pressure, but crypto is just sideways, not crashing.
1 Support is seen at 82,500, with the next level down being the spot ETF holding cost around 81,700. Both levels hold, so pullbacks are still healthy.
2 Futures open interest has dropped from about 760,000 BTC at the start of August to around 630,000 BTC now; prices are up, leverage is down, so this rally doesn't look like a pure leverage top.
3 Sentiment remains in the greed zone (Fear & Greed Index around 74). Sideways movement in greed is the easiest way to wear people out.
One pitfall to mention: don't take a "positive close in September" as a guaranteed rise in October. The monthly candle still has one day left; if 80,000 is effectively broken down, the 90,000 story will have to wait.
Which line do you care about more now: 82,500 or 80,000?
#SeptemberClose #BTC #Macro #ETF #Sideways
$BTC $ETH