夏木KRIS
夏木KRIS
全市场分析，不受局限 提供真正有价值的投资建议
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I have always been committed to sharing trading knowledge to help everyone avoid high-risk trades and investment scams. All guidance is completely free, with no charges. I do not belong to any company, organization, or platform, have no partners, no groups, and will never ask anyone to transfer money to me.
I always advise everyone to keep their money in their own accounts, learn independently, and make their own judgments. When the market declines, you can focus on coins with real projects and long-term value, buy rationally, and sell at the right time after reaching profit targets.
Sharing knowledge is done out of goodwill, with no expectation of return. Protecting your own funds is more important than anything else.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
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What supplements do super individuals need?
(Deep research version)
My combination is:
Anti-aging + High energy + Improve sleep quality + Build lean muscle strength
Basic foundation:
High-dose multivitamins
Fish oil Omega-3
D3 + K2
Nervous system & sleep:
Magnesium glycine
Anti-aging and antioxidant:
GlyNAC (NAC + Glycine) + Ergothioneine
Mitochondria & energy:
Coenzyme Q10 + PQQ
Brain & physical performance:
Creatine 5g
Core logic: supplement the foundation → antioxidant → repair mitochondria → enhance long-term energy and performance.
Also suitable for crypto community
$BTC $ZEC $QNT
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In the era of information transparency, is it really harder for financial crises to occur?
The reason past financial crises were easily brewed was largely due to slow information dissemination. Underdeveloped communication and low market transparency meant that information was held by only a few for a long time. Many risks could accumulate within the system for years, while most market participants remained unaware. By the time the problems truly surfaced, the market often had no time to react, panic spread rapidly, and it eventually evolved into a systemic crisis. Today's environment is completely different. Smartphones, the internet, and real-time information allow information to spread almost instantly worldwide. Macro data, policy changes, and market price fluctuations can all be captured by the market within seconds. Many localized risks are reacted to by the market before they have a chance to expand. From this perspective, the traditional type of financial crisis that relies on delayed information accumulation has indeed become harder to form. But things are not that simple. More information does not equal more understanding. When information spreads extremely fast, the market is also more easily surrounded by noise. True and false news mix, emotions spread faster, and market reactions are often amplified. Short-term panic, concentrated sell-offs, and instant liquidity contractions occur more frequently in modern markets. The early stage of the 2020 pandemic is a typical example. The U.S. stock market triggered four circuit breakers within just one month. It was not that the economic fundamentals suddenly collapsed within weeks, but that the market quickly formed a consensus panic under intensive information shocks. When everyone reacts in the same way simultaneously, market volatility is extremely amplified. A deeper problem actually comes from the increasing complexity of the financial system itself. The 2008 financial cri
The most concerning change in the AI industry may have already appeared in the financing market.
On November 12, Reuters disclosed a set of noteworthy data.
As of the end of October this year, the issuance scale of convertible bonds in the United States reached $153.6 billion, of which about 70% is related to AI.
However, with the recent significant adjustment in AI tech stocks, the conditions for companies issuing new bonds have started to worsen.
For example, in Dropbox's latest convertible bond financing below $11 billion, the actual issuance amount was $1.1 billion, with a conversion premium of about 25%, significantly lower than the third quarter's average level of 35%.
Akamai's new bond interest rate also reached 1%, higher than the recent average level of about 0.75%.
Behind these numbers is the capital market beginning to reassess the financing risks of AI companies.
In the past, investors were willing to believe that as long as AI demand continued to grow, companies could continuously finance and expand data centers.
But now, some companies need to pay higher costs to obtain the same funds.
For those AI companies that require continuous massive capital investment and cannot generate sufficient free cash flow in the short term, this may be more troublesome than a stock price decline.
If the financing environment continues to deteriorate, more AI infrastructure projects may be forced to slow down expansion in the future. $NVDA $SNDK $SPCX
Strategy was removed from MSCI, and Bitcoin's largest corporate buyer is facing trouble.
On November 11, MSCI announced the removal of Strategy (MSTR) from the relevant stock indices.
The reason is that MSCI believes some publicly listed companies holding large amounts of digital assets are increasingly resembling investment funds.
This issue may be more serious than it appears on the surface.
Strategy's past ability to continuously buy BTC largely depended on issuing stock, debt financing, and the valuation premium the capital market gave to its Bitcoin holdings.
However, after being removed from the index, passive funds tracking the relevant index may need to sell MSTR shares.
JPMorgan previously estimated that if other index providers take similar measures, potential capital outflows could reach as high as $8.8 billion.
It is important to note that this does not mean Strategy must immediately sell Bitcoin.
But if the stock price continues to fall and financing costs rise, the company's ability to continue large-scale BTC accumulation in the future may be affected.
Now that Bitcoin has fallen below $70,000, Strategy's financing model is also beginning to face new challenges. $MSTR $COIN $BTC
NVIDIA experiences a sudden major change, one of the most important figures in the AI bull market has left.
On November 12, NVIDIA (NVDA) confirmed that Jensen Huang stepped down as CEO, with CFO Colette Kress temporarily taking over.
After the news broke, NVIDIA's stock price plunged about 14% intraday, then narrowed the decline to 4.3%.
In recent years, NVIDIA has almost become the core of the global AI investment boom.
Besides managing the company, Jensen Huang has long been one of the most important external promoters of the AI industry.
However, I believe this event needs to be viewed as two separate issues.
Jensen Huang's departure may indeed affect NVIDIA's management stability, customer relationships, and market confidence.
But the actual global demand for GPUs in AI data centers will not immediately disappear because of one person's resignation.
What matters more going forward is whether NVIDIA can maintain its product development schedule and whether major cloud computing customers will continue to execute their original capital expenditure plans.
If the company's fundamentals do not show significant changes, the sharp stock price fluctuations may also bring new trading opportunities.
However, before the management transition stabilizes, I will not rush to heavily buy the dip just because of a single-day plunge. $NVDA $SNDK $BTC
Gold suddenly plunged 3%, and even safe-haven assets have started to be sold off.
On November 12, international spot gold fell to around $3,880, hitting a new low in over a year.
What is most notable about this decline is that the global financial market is already in a highly unstable state.
Bitcoin dropped below $70,000, U.S. tech stocks experienced severe volatility, yet gold did not receive significant safe-haven capital support as a result.
One reason is that U.S. inflation once again exceeded expectations, prompting the market to increase bets on the Federal Reserve continuing to raise interest rates.
At the same time, rising oil prices further increase the risk of sustained inflation.
When the dollar strengthens and bond yields rise, gold, despite its safe-haven attributes, may still face pressure from capital outflows.
I remain bullish on gold in the long term, but I am not ignoring this round of adjustment at present.
If gold prices cannot reclaim $4,000, more selling pressure may need to be absorbed in the short term.
For those looking to increase physical gold reserves, I prefer phased allocation rather than buying all at once. $XAU $BTC $NVDA
Bitcoin suddenly plunged to $68,800!
BTC finally broke below $70,000.
A few days ago it was above $76,000, now it has dropped to around $69,000, a nearly 10% pullback in a short time.
Even more dramatic, in just the past 4 hours, the crypto market liquidations reached about $622 million, with over $549 million coming from long positions.
Previously, I thought there might be a rebound around $73,000, but now it seems the selling pressure is greater than expected.
There is another warning sign in this drop:
The US Bitcoin spot ETF has seen continuous net outflows, and spot buying is insufficient to absorb the market sell-off, while leveraged longs are being forcibly liquidated during the decline.
I’m not rushing to say $68,800 is the bottom.
If BTC cannot reclaim $70,000–$72,000 soon, we need to be cautious about further testing $65,000.
However, after consecutive liquidations, a sharp short-term rebound could happen at any time.
I’d prefer to see BTC first recover $72,000 before judging whether this downtrend has ended. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
The inherent flaws of human nature
It's not about how bad someone is, but about others' expectations of you.
Never easily set a perfect persona for yourself.
People are very tolerant of prodigals but harsh on gentlemen.
Elon Musk's complicated love life no longer surprises anyone; Jensen Huang has long been seen as a devoted husband, but once negative news breaks, it immediately triggers a public outcry.
Trump speaks bluntly, and his supporters think he dares to tell the truth.
An honest person slips up once in a while and is accused of revealing their true nature.
When a bad person starts reading, it's called a prodigal turning over a new leaf.
When a good person makes a mistake, it's called exposing their true nature.
When a troublemaker gets into college, it's an inspirational story.
When a top student fails an exam, it's called self-destruction.
Someone usually unfilial visits their parents occasionally, it's called becoming sensible; someone always filial misses a visit once, it's called heartless.
Someone who never donates gives once, it's called compassionate.
Someone who donates every year donates less once, they're accused of changing.
You'll find the more perfect the persona, the lower the tolerance for mistakes.
The worse the persona, the greater the room for improvement.
Remember, people often judge not your actions,
but whether you meet their expectations.
The market hasn't been good recently, and I've only picked 3 coins truly worth bottom-fishing.
The crypto market has been continuously adjusting lately, with many altcoins experiencing quite dramatic drops.
But I don't believe a bigger drop necessarily means a better buy. The vast majority of projects, even if their prices are halved, may not have enough investment value.
After repeated screening recently, the only three I'm more willing to consider buying in batches are:
$SOL: Has a real ecosystem, user base, and on-chain transaction demand; it's a mainstream public chain I'm willing to reallocate to during market pullbacks.
$UNI: One of the few projects in the DeFi space that has gone through multiple cycles and still has actual products and market position. After a significant price adjustment, its valuation and token value capture potential can be reassessed.
Niulai: The riskiest among the three, mainly relying on the spread ability of Chinese Meme, community activity, and market attention. Suitable for small position participation and not to be considered a long-term core holding.
The market hasn't clearly bottomed yet, and I'm not planning to invest all my funds at once.
These three are the few targets I've repeatedly screened from the recent market that I'm still willing to allocate funds to try out.
One of Germany's largest banks has officially started to establish its crypto asset custody business.
On November 11, Deutsche Bank announced the launch of its digital asset custody service.
What is noteworthy about this is that traditional financial institutions are gradually building their own crypto infrastructure.
In the past, institutional investors who wanted to hold digital assets like $BTC and $ETH often had to rely on specialized crypto custodians.
Now, large commercial banks are also entering this market.
For banks, digital asset custody can further extend to asset management, tokenized securities, and future on-chain financial services.
Especially as more traditional financial institutions study RWA and stablecoins, whoever controls the asset custody and settlement gateway has the opportunity to secure long-term client relationships.
However, the launch of custody services by banks does not mean they will immediately buy large amounts of cryptocurrencies.
I am more interested in how many institutional clients will actually use these services in the future, and whether banks will continue to expand into tokenized assets and on-chain settlement.
$ZEC
The development of the AI industry is enabling some decommissioned nuclear power plants to regain commercial value.
On November 11, German energy giant E.ON announced that it is evaluating the possibility of converting parts of decommissioned nuclear power plant sites into data centers.
The most interesting aspect of this is that although these nuclear power plants have stopped generating electricity, the original land, grid connections, and some infrastructure still hold value.
In the past, when tech companies built data centers, the most important factors were purchasing GPUs, servers, and network equipment.
Now, power supply, grid connection speed, and land resources are also becoming important factors affecting project progress.
Especially as the power consumption of large AI data centers continues to rise, industrial facilities with existing grid connections may be more attractive than finding new land and applying for grid access.
However, E.ON is still in the evaluation stage and has not announced any formal conversion projects.
If more energy companies start using old industrial facilities to build data centers in the future, competition for AI infrastructure may further extend to land and grid resources.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
Bitcoin ETFs continue to see $1.6 billion in outflows, while stock ETFs experience a capital bottom-fishing
Despite the market decline, the capital flows for stocks and Bitcoin ETFs are completely different.
According to data released on November 11, the US Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of about $95 million again on November 10.
Since the beginning of November, the cumulative net outflow has reached about $1.6 billion. Meanwhile, after a significant adjustment in the US stock market, stock ETFs have attracted a large amount of capital inflow.
This data indicates that some institutional funds are willing to absorb the stock market decline but are not as actively buying $BTC.
More notably, on-chain data shows that short-term holders transferred over 47,000 BTC to exchanges on November 10, and these bitcoins were moved at prices below their holding costs.
This means some investors who recently bought are transferring chips at a loss.
If BTC continues to fluctuate around $73,000, I will prioritize observing whether ETF funds can turn positive again.
As long as institutional funds continue to flow out, short-term rebounds should be approached with caution
$ETH $ZEC
