溪哲-937
溪哲-937
6年+的倔强老韭菜，保持学习中，
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People trapped in losses can't sleep well, and those who sold too early can't sleep even better.
Losing money is certain, but selling too early means missing out. The mind stubbornly counts what was missed as a loss, replaying that afternoon of selling over and over. Most people can't stand this replay, so they take one of two actions. One is to chase back, buying the same batch of chips at a higher price, reasoning that it can still rise. The other is to never dare to sell again, holding even if it rises, afraid of missing out again. The former gets more and more expensive, the latter turns floating profits into a roller coaster.
Both actions stem from the same root: judging the correctness of the sale by the later price. If the price goes up, you judge that you sold wrong, but this judgment is flawed. At the moment of selling, you only have the information at that time; information that appears later cannot serve as evidence.
I've sold too early several times. Looking back, only once was the sale truly necessary; the other times the reasons didn't change, I was simply shaken by a few bearish candles. So now, when judging whether a sale was right or wrong, I only rely on the reasons at the moment of the decision. Where the price goes afterward doesn't count as a mistake in that decision.
$SOL is the easiest to sell too early this way. The sideways trading unsettles people; seeing no movement makes them want to switch to something else. Price fluctuations themselves shouldn't trigger selling.
After selling, just remove this stock from your watchlist. Watching it only causes discomfort each time. No matter how much it rises, it has nothing to do with you anymore.
+1,547.60%
Snapshot at Oct 02, 2026, 20:51
The market has time zones, and the $SOL price increase this month has almost entirely occurred after dark Beijing time.
Breaking down the 30-day candlesticks by time segment, the Asian session accounts for nearly 30% of the volume, but if you add up the gains and losses in this segment one by one, the total is zero—a flat line. The European and American sessions account for over 60%, and the direction this month has come entirely from these two sessions. The daytime sideways candlesticks look inactive, but the momentum accumulates at night.
In the last seven days, the pattern has shifted. The European session continues to push upward, while the American session gradually releases volume, one candlestick at a time. The gains from Europe exceed all the losses from America. The money hasn’t left; it just changed time zones.
This has two practical uses for those watching the market.
During the few hours of daytime, nothing can be gleaned; the Asian session is naturally flat, so don’t interpret daytime quietness as lack of interest. If you really want to see movement, open the software after 4 PM Beijing time; the directional cues are all in those later hours.
The other use is even more practical. Since the Asian session doesn’t move directionally, placing orders without chasing or fleeing allows for calm entry and exit. Real position adjustments should be made during the day, leaving only monitoring at night. When the market moves directionally, people are asleep, so it doesn’t interfere with work.
Now the baton is in the hands of the European session. Just watch its volume; volume changes lead price changes by half a step. Watch volume first, then trust the price.
+1,529.81%
Snapshot at Oct 02, 2026, 17:08
The group that was holding back their positions has now come back.
As the price rises, the scale of bets across the entire network expands, gaining more than five points in half a day. The previous pattern of positions decreasing while prices rose indicated that no one was selling. Now both sides are moving together, meaning new money is entering the market, which is a different nature.
This shift is more noteworthy than the price itself. Rising with shrinking positions means chips are tightly held; rising with increasing positions means someone is willing to pay to take over. The latter structure is more elastic and noisier during pullbacks. These two patterns appear in quick succession, and the group outside the market has been waiting at their keyboards for the price to give a clear signal.
Trading volume has also picked up, thicker than the previous day. The fee rate has returned to a normal positive value, with longs paying to maintain their positions, and this cost has been relatively cheap recently. The proportion of large holders on the long side hasn't changed, and retail investors betting on longs are also increasing. Both sides share the same sentiment, with no obvious divergence visible on the market. The fear and greed index is hanging in the warm zone, still far from overheating.
A point to watch carefully is the position. The price has already reached the high end of this month's range, not far from the previous high. Increasing positions at a high level is a good sign but also a pressure test; those taking over need to be wealthier than before to hold this baton.
The portion of SOL I hold hasn't changed. As long as new money is willing to take over, the $SOL market still has room to run.
+1,523.14%
Snapshot at Oct 02, 2026, 14:23
The market has been as dull as plain water these past two days, yet $SOL has quietly climbed back to 80% of this month's gains during a period when no one is watching the charts.
There's a data point on the futures side worth keeping an eye on: as the price rises, the total network's bet positions are actually shrinking, down nearly four percentage points. Textbooks call this a sign of weak upward momentum, so it should be taken with caution. After the selling pressure is cleared, only then is the upward move solid.
The logic is simple. Those who wanted to exit have already done so this month; what's left are holders who can endure. Those who want to chase are still away on holiday. Both buyers and sellers are hesitant, so even a small amount of buying can push the price up. The daily volatility is shrinking day by day, from nearly five points down to just over one point, leaving little room for fluctuation. This kind of rise may not look exciting, but there are no floating leverages underneath; every bit of the increase is backed by real money.
The funding rate has returned to positive, but it's so shallow it can be ignored. Directionally, shorts have not replenished after being depleted in the last round. Large holders' positions remain firmly on the long side, unmoved. Spot trading volume is just over $200 million a day, and the fear and greed index is still stuck in the greed zone.
A volume-driven surge is emotional and anyone can fake it. This slow, uncompetitive rise means chips are moving into the hands of those who truly hold, making it hard for the price to collapse after the rise.
I haven't moved any SOL these past two days. Positions are shrinking, prices are rising, and sellers are gone — that's the current state.
+1,480.15%
Snapshot at Oct 02, 2026, 11:58
First day of the holiday, the market is very quiet, $SOL has been hovering slightly around the same level for the past few hours, rising a bit and falling a bit, with no one taking it away.
There’s something more interesting than candlestick charts: the funding rate has turned negative again. Don’t be fooled by the small number; there’s a lot to unpack here. A negative funding rate means shorts are willing to pay to maintain their positions—they either firmly believe the price will drop or they’ve been left behind and are eager to regain ground. Those who followed last time the funding rate turned negative know what happened: the price was pushed down a bit but didn’t break through, instead washing out some of the weak floating positions.
Now it’s back to this level, and my view is the same as last time: the shorts crowding here is not a good sign for themselves. Looking at the distribution of contract positions, the big players’ long positions have only slightly decreased recently; the base hasn’t moved at all. On one side, more and more people are willing to pay to short, while on the other, big funds are sitting tight. I’ve seen this structure many times over the years—most often, those who can’t hold out end up conceding first.
The market is quiet during the holiday, and precisely because it’s quiet, these signals are cleaner: no noise, no hedging interference, the funding rate is what it is. When the holiday ends and funds flow back, the market itself will reveal who is building up positions and who is exiting first.
I’m still holding $SOL as usual; this kind of funding rate reads as an opportunity approaching. Do what needs to be done and rest when needed—let’s see the real outcome after the holiday.
+1,226.67%
Snapshot at Oct 01, 2026, 19:08
Someone in the group asked if it's possible to add to positions now, and by how much.
My positions are always divided into two layers. The base position is held because I believe in the long-term potential of this chain; I don't bother watching the ups and downs, $SOL just needs to sit there in this market. The other layer is the momentum position, specifically for adding to positions, with a fixed quota: I take out 20% of the total position, and if the price rises and I want to chase, I use this 20%. Once it's used up, that's it—never touching the base position.
This discipline may seem rigid, but it has saved me twice. In the early days, I chased momentum without a quota concept, pulling from the base position when prices rose. After a correction, half of the base position was wiped out, and by the time the main rally returned, I was no longer on board. An account with a messy position can't hold anything steadily.
Now, with the market fluctuating about 1% every hour during the day, it's perfect to set rules: if you want to chase, first check how much quota is left; if none remains, just watch and resist the urge. Big players have been firmly positioned on the bullish side these days without moving, and especially at times like this, there's no need to rush—the market doesn't need your trade.
The base position is for watching the direction, the momentum position is to control your impulses—don't mix the two.
+1,264.47%
Snapshot at Oct 01, 2026, 11:46
First day of the holiday, the group chat is eerily quiet, everyone calling trades has gone home for dinner.
The market looks weak too, those candles during the day are short, and the gains column shows tiny numbers like 0.x, as if no one is trading. I advise you not to jump to conclusions yet; this volume drop is fake. During the day, most people are on the highway or at the dinner table, so half the viewers are gone, naturally the volume shrinks, but that doesn't mean the money has left. To really see if the funds are still there, you have to look at the contract positions: the whole network's SOL positions have been accumulating recently. People may have left, but the money hasn't.
To give you a sense of position: SOL has risen a lot from the low point this past month and is now resting at about three-quarters of the entire gain range, neither going up nor down. This kind of position is the most frustrating; if it goes up a step, some say it's peaked, if it moves sideways a day, some say it's dead.
The most comfortable type of holding I've had over the years is exactly this kind of sideways consolidation during holidays when no one is chatting. The money that comes in during the hype is just joining the crowd; the chips held steadily during the holiday are what really hold the bottom. When the dinner parties end and the people stuck in traffic get home, opening the app to find the coin still there—that's when the real buying is happening.
I still check the market twice a day as usual; if there's movement, I'll say so, if not, everyone enjoys their holiday. Hold SOL, don't get itchy at the dinner table. $SOL
+1,246.68%
Snapshot at Oct 01, 2026, 08:47
There’s a divergence worth mentioning these past two days: $SOL price is moving sideways at a high level, but the fear and greed index has dropped for three consecutive days—74, 73, 71.
The index retreats, but the price doesn’t. This means those scared off aren’t the holders, but those who never got on board and keep shouting danger every day. The real holders aren’t panicking at all; their positions are very stable, and trading volume has even increased by more than 10% compared to before.
I’ve suffered losses from this kind of divergence, and I’ve also benefited from it. In the last market cycle, when the index dropped from a high level for a few days, I got scared and reduced my position, but the price stayed flat for a while and then continued to rise, so I sold halfway up the mountain. Since then, I’ve remembered: a falling sentiment index isn’t scary; what’s scary is when the price falls along with it. When both fall together, it means people are really running; when only one falls, it’s the people who never got on board or are trying to bottom-fish, while the holders don’t move at all.
That’s exactly the current situation. The index has dropped for three days, but SOL hasn’t budged, and volume has increased.
This kind of divergence can’t hold for long; eventually, a direction will be chosen. Those holding positions should wait for the market to decide before making moves—don’t be afraid on behalf of the market prematurely.
+1,323.76%
Snapshot at Sep 30, 2026, 22:56
$SOL This is the number I'm most paying attention to this round, not in the K-line, but in the contract positions.
In one month, the contract positions betting on SOL across the entire network have increased by 14 percentage points. The price is moving, and the betting chips are also piling up, which indicates that the incoming money is leveraged, not just watching without action.
The fee rate is even more straightforward. The shorts have been paying the longs for a whole month to hold their positions; all thirty fee periods were positive. Recently, this period suddenly dropped close to zero. For the first time this month, the longs no longer have to pay protection fees.
Big players and retail investors are now on the same side. Large accounts have 70% of their positions betting long, and 60% of retail investors are also betting long. Anyone who has traded contracts for a while knows the worst is when both sides are opposing each other, causing the market to swing back and forth. When both sides move in the same direction, the market is actually simpler.
The signal to watch is just one: if positions continue to expand and the fee rate rises again, it means leveraged funds believe this move is not over. If one day positions shrink but the price keeps rising, that's when you should really consider your move.
With the current structure, hold tight and don't make rash moves.
+1,343.03%
Snapshot at Sep 30, 2026, 19:57
Before every major surge, there are always people shouting they have no money. I'll share a simple, somewhat naive way to find money: don't focus on the K-line charts, look at how many stablecoins are parked on-chain.
Stablecoins are the ammunition placed right at the door; they don't rise or fall, just quietly sit there, but each one represents a buy order that hasn't entered the market yet. When the ammo pile is big, the market just needs a reason to fire; when the ammo runs low, no matter how loud the good news is, it's just empty shots.
The ammo is moving, and most people haven't noticed this detail. The same issuer's USD coins show three different trends across three chains: on Solana, they've increased 18% this month, hitting a record high; on Ethereum, they've decreased 10%; on another older chain, they've stayed flat. One coin, three directions—money votes with its feet, casting votes for the fastest-growing chain.
$SOL currently has 11.7B stablecoins parked on-chain, still growing this month. The bulk is USD coins; another issuer with 2.7B is retreating. This shows institutions pick chains like choosing a market stall—where the crowd is, where settlement is fast, fees are low, and depth is sufficient, the ammo naturally moves there.
To gauge a chain's rise or fall, don't look at coin prices, look at this number. Prices can be manipulated by news, but stablecoin supply can't be faked; moving in is moving in, moving out is moving out, and every step leaves an on-chain record.
The market hasn't started yet, but the ammo is already in position. Historically, battles like this have a good chance of winning. Conversely, the more interesting signal is that the chain with shrinking stablecoin supply, no matter how lively its K-line is, its firepower is borrowed.
This chain's ammo depot is thickening, the ledger shows the truth, and the rest is up to time.
+1,452.73%
Snapshot at Sep 29, 2026, 22:02