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Preface: According to the latest data from CME FedWatch, market traders have raised the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the October FOMC meeting to 55%, crossing the threshold between bulls and bears. Many traders treat this figure as a simple negative message, but changes in rate expectations essentially represent a repricing of global dollar liquidity. At the September policy meeting, the Fed raised its first rate hike since July 2023, raising the federal funds rate to 3.75%-4.00%. The dot plot data shows that 16 out of 18 officials believe another rate hike is needed within 2026. Sticky inflation, resilient U.S. consumer demand, and geopolitical energy disturbances have shifted the October meeting from a "high probability of holding steady" to a key window with substantial rate hike options. The Fed's rate hikes are not simply economic regulation; they trigger a dollar tide that affects all highly resilient risk assets worldwide. Within the crypto market, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and ZEC each have completely different asset attributes. Facing rising expectations for this round of rate hikes, market responses will diverge significantly. 1. Underlying Principle: Real Interest Rates, the Pricing Anchor of Crypto Assets The underlying pricing benchmark for all major asset classes is the real yield, which is the nominal interest rate minus inflation expectations. When the market prices the probability of a rate hike higher, the nominal yield on U.S. Treasuries rises, and the real interest rate rises: the risk-free returns on holding U.S. Treasuries and U.S. dollar cash increase, prompting funds to actively avoid high risk