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August PCE lowered the probability of a rate hike in October; will the September nonfarm payroll rate bring back the probability of a rate hike in October? So far, the probability of a rate hike in October is 23.8%, and in December it is 63.4%. Although rate hike expectations have been pushed back, strictly speaking, the probability of a rate hike is still in the uncertain stage. #9月非农今晚公布, rate hike expectations are the focus. For the market, the anticipated pace of rate hikes is not frightening; what's scary is the uncertainty of rate hikes, which makes the market hesitant to price in advance. Therefore, tonight's major nonfarm payroll data is very important Currently, this month's nonfarm payroll data forecasts 35,000-180,000 people, with the main expectations focused on 84,000-90,000 people. The previous August figure of 162,000 was previously considered by most economists to be a seasonal exaggeration. So tonight, we will look not only at September's nonfarm payrolls but also on the August data revision. Based on tonight's 90,000 data points, three different scenarios can be classified: a. Best data: ≤ 50,000, unemployment rate greater than or equal to 4.2%, wage ≤ 3.1%, which is a dovish figure indicating cooling employment. Weak employment limits the Fed's room for rate hikes, which will further weaken expectations for a rate hike in October and may also lead the market to debate whether to raise rates in December!? b. Neutral data, which is also the Fed's ideal data mix: nonfarm payrolls in the 80,000-100,000 population range, unemployment rate at 4.1%, wages around 3.2%, meaning stable employment and wage growth, and a resilient economy that favors room for rate hikes. At this point, the probability of a December rate hike will further increase, so the market will need to focus on December