The direction was guessed right, but the calendar was guessed a day early 😂
Bold guess for the 30th: if it holds above 85,000, it might touch 86,000 on the first day of National Day.
It didn’t reach yesterday, so here’s the makeup homework today. Do you think I deserve points for this?
However, if 86,000 is reached, there’s still the nonfarm payrolls at 20:30 tonight.
The market expects about 80,000–90,000 new jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%. A decrease from last month is already priced in, so don’t call it bullish just because of “slowing employment.”
What I’d rather see is: employment cooling down a bit, wages not overheating, and unemployment not suddenly jumping. That would better ease concerns about further rate hikes.
Based on the charts you’ve seen, tonight I’ll first watch if 86,000 can hold: if it holds, then observe if it can challenge today’s high around 86,900 and test 87,000; if it falls back near 85,000, we’ll need to reassess the strength of this rally.
The bulls showed their cards during the day; let’s see if the nonfarm tonight gives them points.
Market observation only, not investment advice, don’t get carried away by the data tonight.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
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