Just after the major non-farm payrolls were announced, the CME rate hike probability website crashed again. Now it finally refreshed, showing the October rate hike probability has indeed dropped to the teens, closing at 16.1%.
This probability basically defines the minimum probability range for no rate hike in October, but as always, maintaining a no rate hike probability for over 20 days from now is still too long. The Federal Reserve will not tolerate such market consensus lasting too long.
So, the fastest scenario is that some information will come out next week to push the October rate hike probability back up, and then it will be pushed down again closer to the 10.26 FOMC meeting.
Disclaimer: OKX Orbit content is provided for informational purposes only. Learn more
