AAVE at $180, do you dare to chase?
AAVE surged from 145 to 180, a 45% increase in 30 days, V4 deposits broke $1 billion, DAO is buying back with real money weekly—but the burn proposal is still nowhere to be seen, and the price has already priced it in early. Chasing at 180, are you riding the main uptrend or catching the last wave?
Let's look at the surface first: a breakout with volume, momentum is strong.
In the past 24 hours, it rose 11%-13%, 7 days up 24%-26%, 30 days up 45%. Market cap is $2.8 billion, circulating supply 15.4 million, hard cap 16 million—almost fully circulating, no large unlocks dumping the market. Daily chart turned strong again, 4-hour chart is bullish, volume expanded. All indicators shout one thing: V4 narrative + buybacks, AAVE is set to return to its peak.
But don't forget—ATH was 662, now 180, still 70% away. This is not a low-level start, but a mid-mountain climb from 145.
First: V4 deposits broke $1 billion, RWA is truly landing.
Around October 1, Aave Labs confirmed: V4 deposits surpassed $1 billion, active loans between $310 million and $400 million. It has expanded to Arc and Base.
The key is the Equities Hub on Base—non-US users can use Coinbase tokenized stocks (Apple, Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla) as collateral to borrow USDC, priced by Chainlink.
Don't get it? Let me translate:
You hold Apple stock, no need to sell it, you can borrow USDC. This is the real landing of RWA collateral, not a roadmap, not a PPT.
Aave is transforming from a "crypto lending protocol" into "on-chain Wall Street." This is on the same level as Compound igniting DeFi summer in 2020.
Second: Buybacks are happening, but burns are not yet implemented.
DAO's annual budget is about $50 million for buybacks, buying $250k to $1.75 million AAVE weekly, going into ecosystem reserves—not directly burned. Stani has said they are evaluating permanent burns but no formal proposal or timeline yet.
The market is pricing in "buybacks turning into burns" early. What you buy is not the current AAVE, but the expectation that "Stani might burn tokens."
If the burn proposal passes officially, 180 could jump straight to 220. If rejected, 180 is a short-term top.
What does buying the expectation and selling the fact mean? This is it.
Third: Short squeeze + technicals, is 180 a breakout retest or a trap chasing highs?
Futures volume about $1.09 billion, open interest about $535 million. On the 2nd, three one-hour short liquidations totaled about $350k, mostly short liquidations all day. The 180 to 187 range is leveraged-driven.
The path is clear: mid-September lifted from 113-120 to 145, on September 29 surged to 176 then fell back to 145-160, October 1 stood above 170, October 2 pulled to 187 then retreated to 180.
180 is the retest zone after breakout. Holding 170 keeps the rebound structure; daily close below 164 is a false breakout short-term.
Resistance above: 185-188 is today's high, 190-200 is round number and short-term target, 220-230 is pre-September supply. Without volume to hold above 190, don't talk above 200.
Bull vs bear, you decide:
Bulls:
- V4 deposits broke $1 billion, RWA collateral truly landed
- DAO buys back with real money weekly, $50 million annual budget
- Circulating supply nearly maxed, low dilution pressure
- GHO becomes second income stream, $12 million income past 12 months
- Short liquidations driving volume and price up
Bears:
- Burn is only discussed, buying is on expectation
- Protocol income relative to $2.8 billion market cap, valuation not cheap
- BTC dump hits high-beta AAVE first
- One year ago 284, now 180 still a correction from highs
- 180 to 187 has short squeeze elements, chasing highs risks pullback
- Critical level 180, only $10 above death line 170
Resistance: 185-188 → 190-200 → 220-230
Support: 170-172 (today's open/breakout zone) → 164-165 (Oct 2 low) → 158-160 → 145
Trading strategy
Aggressive:
Light long near 180, stop loss 168. First target 187, second 195. Reduce half at 187. No heavy positions, no leverage add at 187.
Conservative:
Wait for 170-172 to consider long, stop loss 163. Better entry 158-162. If not reached, hold small position, don't rush.
Breakout:
Only consider chasing if volume supports holding above 190 and retest doesn't break 185, targets 200, 210. Abandon false breakout.
Short:
Light short on 187-190 failure, stop loss 196, target 172. Avoid shorting near 164.
Position size:
Single trade risk no more than 2% of total capital, leverage recommended 3-5x. Intraday 10% volatility already occurred today.
Risk management priorities (must memorize):
Break below 164 with volume, next supports 158, 145, reduce positions first.
BTC breaks 83k and accelerates, reduce AAVE positions accordingly.
If burn proposal rejected or buyback budget cut, short-term expectation will be crushed.
AAVE has justified "V4 over $1 billion deposits + DAO still buying," price has priced in burn expectations early.
What 180 can do is breakout retest, not all-in 200.
You are not buying AAVE, you are betting whether Stani will turn buybacks into burns.
Before burns land, all gains are pre-spent.
Better to wait alive for 170 break or 190 confirmation than add leverage at intraday highs.
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