What's going on outside?
Overnight US stocks on 9/30 closed with Dow down -0.86%, S&P down -0.25%, and Nasdaq barely up +0.24% — August PCE below expectations eased rate hike worries a bit, but the 10-year US Treasury yield at 5.2% and the 30-year hitting 5.5%, a 20-year high, show the bond market anchor is loosening. The Fed raised rates once in September, officials still say inflation above the 2% target might prompt more hikes; the market is catching its breath but not daring to breathe deeply.
A-shares closed before the holiday on 9/30 with tech stocks supporting the market; the National Day holiday lasts seven days with reopening on 10/8. Hong Kong stocks: Hang Seng Index down -3.73% in September, Hang Seng Tech down -7.92%, a month of declines causing anxiety.
The crypto market's capital flow is interesting: $BTC spot ETFs attracted $2.65 billion in September (the second largest monthly inflow since October 2025), BlackRock's IBIT has had inflows of $3 billion for seven consecutive weeks, and Citi raised $BTC's 12-month target price to $113,000 — institutions are verbally bullish; but futures open interest saw a net outflow of $276 million in one week, only replenished $240 million on 10/1. Spot supports the market while futures are running away then returning, both bulls and bears are probing.
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