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理智分析的牛
有人说预测市场比民调准，我能理解。填问卷可以随口选，判断错了真要亏钱，多少会逼人认真点。聊大饼尤其如此，嘴上看涨太容易了。买币盯价格，预测市场还得把看法变成具体事件。我看赔率，会把它当成参与者用资金表达的概率，不是标准答案。只是有点犯嘀咕：不愿意拿钱参与的人没被算进去，盘子又薄的话，这份“共识”到底代表了谁？
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