tvbee

tvbee

✦数据分析+宏观+投研 ✦人肉码字、人肉图表、非AI内容 ✦100%文章原创、拒绝人云亦云🦅 ✦PANews、Foresightnews、AIcoin等媒体专栏作者 ✦也是韭菜,分析能力大于交易水平,不撸毛

77Following
676followers

Feed

tvbee
tvbee
Following OKX, Backpack, Trust Wallet, and Bitget Wallet, Kucoin Wallet has also integrated deBridge. Phantom users have cumulatively transacted $535.5 million through deBridge (data as of October 21, 2026). Trust Wallet users have cumulatively transacted $115 million through deBridge (data as of July 17, 2026). Bitget Wallet users have cumulatively transacted $100 million through deBridge (data as of April 29, 2026). deBridge's cross-chain bridge on its official website is a toC product, easily understandable by retail users. As for toB products, deBridge integration into wallets is already widely recognized. However, deBridge can also be integrated into more products, including but not limited to: First, integration into DEXs, with real-world cases including Jupiter, OKX DEX, etc. Second, integration into AI Agents or other automation tools, with real-world cases including deBridge MCP, HeyAnon AI Defi Assistant, Sigma trading bot, Maestro trading bot, etc. Third, integration into defi applications to achieve cross-chain defi. Real-world cases include Astrolab cross-chain yield aggregator, etc.
tvbee
tvbee
Although the US and Iran seem to be actively negotiating, and oil prices have dropped. However, on Polymarket, the prediction about the Strait of Hormuz reopening: the prediction for reopening by the end of November is 2%, by the end of December is 9%, and this trend has almost continuously declined, with no obvious increase in recent days. Currently, the main discussion between the two sides is that the US lifts the maritime blockade and releases some frozen assets, Iran invites the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to inspect nuclear facilities, then Iran reopens the strait, and the two sides further discuss the handling of enriched uranium. But if the subsequent enriched uranium issue cannot be resolved, the conflict and the strait will revert to the previous state, and the US will not be able to recover the unfrozen assets. Moreover, Iran reopening the strait may insist on the previously proposed seven conditions, including the one about strategic compensation. All these points are very unfavorable to the US. Can this agreement be reached? Beware of a possible reversal in the near future.
tvbee
tvbee
The jinx predicted correctly again; the CPI monthly rate indeed exceeded expectations on both counts. #美国10月整体与核心CPI双超预期 The annual rate hasn't been released, probably because of the government shutdown in November last year, which left no reliable CPI data. Today's panic mainly stems from the speech by Fed academic board member Waller, who said, "We need to at least take back the previous three preemptive hikes." Waller was also a frontrunner for the new Fed chair. Actually, I think there's no need to panic too much. There was one rate hike in September, a December hike is expected, and another one in Q1 next year, making exactly three hikes. For Q2 next year, I've analyzed countless times that since oil prices started rising in March this year, dividing that out for Q2 next year means the annual CPI rate will come down. So my previous judgment that the market will gradually improve in Q1 or Q2 now seems more likely to happen in Q2.
tvbee
tvbee
I really can't do it—I just can't find a positive angle for CPI; tonight's CPI might not be optimistic #美国10月CPI今晚公布,加息预期能否改变? First, oil prices have been on an upward trend from August to October, with the average oil price in October being high. See Figure 1 Second, the consumer confidence index released at the end of October rebounded, and strong consumption will push prices up from the demand side. See Figure 2 Third, previous non-farm payroll data showed that both the monthly and annual wage growth rates were not low, with income growth relatively high, which may be one reason for strong consumer confidence. See Figure 3 The expected annual rates for the comprehensive CPI and core CPI are 3.9% and 2.8%, respectively, which are not low. But the expected monthly rates are 0.3% and 0.2%, and personally, I feel the monthly rate expectations are somewhat optimistic.
tvbee
tvbee
I really can't do it—I just can't find a positive angle for CPI; tonight's CPI might not be optimistic #美国10月CPI今晚公布,加息预期能否改变? First, oil prices have been on an upward trend from August to October, with the average oil price in October being high. See Figure 1 Second, the consumer confidence index released at the end of October rebounded, and strong consumption will push prices up from the demand side. See Figure 2 Third, previous non-farm payroll data showed that both the monthly and annual wage growth rates were not low, with income growth relatively high, which may be one reason for strong consumer confidence. See Figure 3 The expected annual rates for the comprehensive CPI and core CPI are 3.9% and 2.8%, respectively, which are not low. But the expected monthly rates are 0.3% and 0.2%, and personally, I feel the monthly rate expectations are somewhat optimistic.
tvbee
tvbee
The U.S. stock market feels like it has bottomed out, but crypto still feels a bit short of that. The RSI14 for NDX and NVDA has both dropped below 30. The last time NDX's RSI was this low was at the end of March 2026 when the U.S. and Iran went to war; the last time NVDA's RSI was this low was in April 2025 during the tariff war. NVDA's daily RSI even shows divergence, which is rare for U.S. stocks as their RSI usually moves in sync. But Brother Feng still didn't dare to buy NVDA; not afraid of a mistress, just afraid the mistress is actually a spy, so he bought some QQQ instead. As for crypto, it still feels a bit off, mainly because although funds are flowing into USDC and USDT, the inflow is very small. However, I don't think BTC's low point will be extremely low. When the community members see a drop, they look at 30,000 or 49,000... This is Huang Renxun cheating, not a Bitcoin fork... The impact of non-liquid negative factors is limited. Brother Feng can't think of any major liquidity negatives coming up. The December rate hike is expected, and even another hike in Q1 next year wouldn't be very surprising. U.S. Treasury yields have risen a bit recently, Trump's stance on Iran has softened, and oil prices have dropped quite a bit today. Although there might be a rebound related to the U.S.-Iran situation and oil prices, it probably won't lead to a major black swan event, right?
tvbee
tvbee
Suddenly feel this chart is scary From 201·~2017, 2019~2021, BTC was accelerating upward. But from 2022~2025, BTC is generally rising linearly. Brother Feng hopes that with the addition of ETFs, the market becomes more mature and rational, rather than BTC's upward momentum being insufficient. Brother Feng, because he is deeply involved in this industry, inevitably has some bias. So here he also wants to advise himself to be rational and not to participate in this industry based on past historical empiricism.
tvbee
tvbee
The non-farm payroll data is just too "good," basically making a December rate hike inevitable. Now we just hope there won't be any more rate hikes in Q1 next year. #美国10月非农超预期,12月加息押注升温 First, the non-farm employment numbers far exceeded expectations and previous values; second, the unemployment rate is also lower than expected and previous values; third, the labor force participation rate is higher than expected and previous values. With this employment situation, one rate hike will face no resistance. On the other hand, both the annual and monthly wage growth rates exceeded expectations, with the monthly rate far surpassing expectations and previous values. One rate hike is necessary. So this once again confirms Brother Feng's previous conclusion: the market will not improve until at least Q1 next year, and it still depends on the December dot plot. We cannot rule out another rate hike in Q1 next year.
tvbee
tvbee
If you want to buy the dip in batches, you can consider it now. The OTC price of USDT has reached as high as 6.68, and the USDCNY exchange rate hasn't risen, so there might still be a slight drop today. Both USDT and USDC have seen capital inflows today, and the total market cap of USDT + USDC has also slightly increased today. Brother Feng picked up some $ETH $SUI $DBR
tvbee
tvbee
The market, whenever it drops, immediately starts looking for reasons, without thinking deeply at all. Actually, the AI boom is still related to the massive liquidity injection in 2020-21. That wave of funds flowed into the AI industry, and then AI technology exploded. The funny thing is, now the Democrats think AI infringes on the rights of natural persons and have started cracking down again. Actually, it's always been the Democrats' fault! The Democrats seem to respect public opinion very much, but it seems they only look at the immediate public opinion and often overcorrect. Marx's political economy has a point I agree with: the economic base determines the superstructure, but the superstructure also reacts on the economic base! Getting off topic, but as I said, although I don't support Trump either, I don't think the Democrats coming to power will necessarily be good for the market, especially not in the short term. The short term will be a time of friction. The two chambers and the president will struggle, bulls and bears will clash.
tvbee
tvbee
Continue to hold $GOOGL The daily RSI14 has not been this low since the AI boom started. If the AI narrative continues, it should shift from infrastructure to the application layer. Brother Feng chooses to trust Google. Additionally, Google's previous massive capital expenditures should eventually convert into technology, products, and profits... Just my personal humble opinion, please don't laugh.