wesley教授
wesley教授
Founder of Block Infinity, Poker player, Trader, Chinese whale, @drhashclub
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Many people keep flipping through my positions this week, but this is actually a negative example. The net exposure switched back and forth several times within a week. You might think this is flexibility, but most of the time it's just being led by the market. The ones who truly make money are never the quickest hands; it's those few times when you confidently bet and hold after correctly identifying the direction. The sense of direction in $BTC is always more valuable than precise entry points. Frequent in-and-out trades only grind your profits down to fees. How many times have you changed your mind this week?
It's the weekend again, and when there's smoke in the Middle East, the familiar voices in the comments come back: war has broken out, quickly buy $BTC to hedge.
Wake up. Today, the Australian Treasurer made it clear: the Middle East war is an economic disaster, putting huge upward pressure on global inflation and interest rates. Do you understand this chain? — War pushes oil prices up, oil prices push inflation up, inflation forces interest rates to rise, and once interest rates rise, the first to get hit are high-risk assets like Bitcoin.
Over the past year, the real pricing of these conflicts hasn't been gold and BTC rising together, but the US Treasury yields climbing steadily. War in the current environment is not a safe-haven signal; it's a rate-hike signal.
So don't reflexively buy the dip every time you see geopolitical news. First, look up at the 10-year US Treasury yield; it’s more honest than any headline.
For those trading on leverage, don't get swayed by a single Federal Reserve news item.
The officials' statements over the past two days are not aligned at all: Dallas Fed's Logan calls for at least another 50 basis points hike, and not just once; today, Harker said the nonfarm payrolls align with recent hiring trends and there's "ample time" to decide policy, showing no rush. The same committee, but hawks and doves speak differently.
The most common mistake retail investors make is to latch onto the statement that suits their bias as gospel. Bears only remember Logan, bulls only remember Goolsbee, then use that to justify their positions.
My approach: who said what doesn't matter; next week's meeting minutes and real data are what count. Until then, don't bet on $BTC's direction based on a single official remark. These are all noise; the real signals come when the boots hit the ground.
Today, these two AI news items only make sense when seen together.
On one side, the White House has set up a "Super Intelligence Task Force" led by the Director of National Intelligence, tasked with delivering an AI risk assessment report within 120 days — in other words: the government is seriously starting to figure out how to rein in AI. On the other side, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is downplaying concerns about an "AI bubble" in public, saying that Microsoft, Google, and Meta are all investing real money.
One is busy assessing risks, the other busy calming the market. Every time the authorities say "no problem" while secretly adding surveillance, my radar actually gets louder.
This isn’t directly related to the crypto world, but AI is the string that tenses the whole risk asset sentiment. When the regulatory report finally lands, don’t say I didn’t warn you. For now? Just watch; those rushing in are mostly people who haven’t seen how fast the wind can change.
People often ask: You’re a "short god," so why do you still hold a piece of altcoin as a long in spot? And it’s specifically a high beta like $ASTER.
The logic is actually very simple. I hold a short position on the perpetual leg, betting on a pullback; I keep a high beta piece in spot, betting that when the market really rallies, it will bounce more aggressively than BTC. Placing bets on both sides means that whichever side pays off, I won’t be left empty-handed staring blankly — this is about spreading out directional uncertainty, not sitting on the fence.
The same principle applies at the poker table: you never play with just one card in hand; the key is that each bet size matches your confidence. If you’re confident, bet big; if you’re less sure, hedge or reduce your position size.
With low volume over the weekend, I’m not rushing to bet on a single direction. $BTC and $ETH are both sideways; I’ll wait for volume to pick up. In this kind of market, are you going all in or sitting on the sidelines watching the show?
A piece of news easily overlooked: the Iranian rial has hit a historic low again, and the central bank urgently spent up to 2 billion USD to support the market. This currency has depreciated by more than half in the past year. What locals do is very simple—exchange for USD, hard currency, or gold. This is actually the most primitive narrative of crypto: when your national currency loses half its value in a year, no matter how volatile Bitcoin is, in their eyes it is another form of "hard asset." But don't rush to take it as a bullish reason: this is a slow variable, a structural story over five to ten years, not a trigger for this low-volume weekend. Recognizing whether something is a long-term support or a short-term catalyst is two different things—if you pick the wrong time frame, even the right logic will lose money. $BTC
For those watching coins, don't forget to also keep an eye on oil. This weekend, the Strait of Hormuz had another incident: the Iranian Revolutionary Guard attacked seven oil tankers within five days, and the Houthis also struck Aramco facilities in Riyadh with missiles. Many people reflexively think "safe haven, buy $BTC" when they see geopolitical escalation, but the direction might actually be the opposite. The real transmission chain here is: once oil prices are pushed up → inflation sticks again → the previously softened rate hike expectations rise again → risk assets get hit along with it. In the current macro pricing framework, war is accounted for as a rate hike factor, not a gold-like safe haven factor. So what I’m really watching isn’t where the missiles land, but whether WTI can hold steady. What do you all think about this oil wave?