陈小晖
陈小晖
夫唯不争，一位略懂投机之道的混子。 只用2倍杠杆。 且看能小资金3年能不能走出来。
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This month, I really have to thank $SNDK and $SKHYNIX
and also Elon Musk's big rocket $SPCX for the opportunities, which allowed the account to have a relatively good increase.
Victory and odds were controlled, and I also appreciate the company of brothers along the way. Let's see how far we can go this year, proving that a small capital of 1500u can also compound and grow.
I hope the market continues to provide opportunities next month, aiming to reach 12,000u next month #Elon Musk responds to Morgan Stanley, $3.5 trillion revenue may come seven years early
-2.46%
Snapshot at 29 Aug 2026, 16:13
The logic of phishing and speculation is the same.
Water has its temperament, fish have their timing; you hold your rod, it keeps its appointment. Whether it comes or not, it's perfect!
The so-called gains and losses are just shackles people impose on themselves. Letting go of that ruler, you realize the wind is cool, the clouds move slowly, and that slight nod floating on the water's surface has already answered everything!
As the saying goes, walk to where the water ends, sit and watch the clouds rise!
The harder you try, the less you see the full picture of the market. Effort can be wrong; technical aspects and systems can be modified, but mentality and character are hard to change. The more you care about small fluctuations, the more likely big problems will arise.
Follow the market at the right points. Before the market hits stop-loss and tells you failure, don't have too much emotional fluctuation. It's better to watch the flow of funds more. The worse the market liquidity, the earlier you can spot the leaders.
Market funds are an objective fact; no need for subjective judgment. All you have to do is follow.
I used to think the more technical tools the better, but now I feel I've returned to the most primitive state. Right or wrong is decided by the market. Do what you should do; no amount of extra effort will help otherwise.
#本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要
Korea is not opening the market today, the Japanese index has a decent rally, and the Taiwan stock market has even hit a historic high. Tonight when the US market opens, this semiconductor sector is expected to perform well.
There haven't been any major news changes these days, so just keep holding the trend stocks and wait for the market to choose a direction. AI hardware funds have to pick a direction to go. For AI application fields, it depends on whether the funds will flow in or not.
Long positions: The odds for current $SNDK and $MU long positions are getting smaller and smaller, and arbitrage is not very meaningful anymore. Better to miss out than to make a wrong move.
It's better to hold more $ETH and Bitcoin.
Short positions: Short Hynix and oil, the odds are very high once this trend forms. Just don't go heavy all at once; short on rallies at high points.
#霍尔木兹仍未开放，OPEC+维持11月产量不变
-8.07%
Snapshot at 05 Oct 2026, 14:50
Looking at BTC and ETH over the weekend just by cycle and naked K-line.
$BTC is in the first wave of an oversold rebound cycle. This rally's pullback hasn't broken 80857 and is still within the range. As long as it doesn't break 80857, it's still consolidating, waiting for a breakout. The late-stage bull trap of this rebound cycle hasn't appeared yet.
For ETH, at 2435, it's the same logic. If sudden news breaks it, watch for a recovery. If it doesn't recover and hold, it means weakness.
But $ZEC is near 1100, and the 4-hour chart shows another drop. A sharp sell-off here could actually be a buying opportunity.
Market liquidity is poor now, so the speed of the drop to key levels will be faster, shortening waiting times. It depends on whether funds flow back; if they do and push prices up without breaking the range, keep holding.
#VanEck：比特币或继续扩大市场份额
Next week is another FOMC meeting. Currently, the market news is all over the place, so there’s no need to pay too much attention; just watch the day the news is released. It’s enough to see whether the market funds accept it or not. Everything else is just noise.
Just keep an eye on several asset prices, like U.S. Treasuries, gold, crude oil, and other interest rate hikes or cuts—the market has already priced those in, especially now in this black-box situation, so the impact of the news release can basically be ignored.
Look at where the market funds are flowing and follow accordingly. October will be a good month.
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要
Recently, I haven't been doing arbitrage because the volatility is low, and it's time to choose a direction.
The rebound in AI tech stocks is in its final stage; except for giants with sufficient cash flow, for those that have fallen a lot, buying is basically fine.
For those traditional cyclical stocks using AI narratives up to now, if they haven't broken previous highs and are consolidating, don't try to guess the bottom. Going long now only has a 3% stop-loss space, and the odds aren't high. It's really better to wait for a clearer direction.
There are still quite a few surprises to look forward to. Previously, there were many positives; going forward, there will gradually be random negatives.
Those starting to short for trend should begin testing positions. If the previous highs aren't broken, and the rebound is within a downtrend space, short on rallies, give the market some time. The odds here are much better than going long.
So for upcoming trend trades, unless unexpected events occur and the logic is falsified, just hold on. Use time to exchange for space with high odds.
Finish the longs on this wave of Tem that don't break the lower band, then go all in on shorting Hynix.
#非农降温难压美债收益率，长期利率压力仍在
-6.62%
Snapshot at 03 Oct 2026, 15:09
Yesterday's nonfarm payrolls were positive, and the semiconductor rebound was quite good, with the Nasdaq pulling back after breaking new highs.
However, storage has been affected by news; previously, despite price increases, no new factories were being built. But now, some are being constructed. The next question is whether Seagate and Western Digital will follow suit, and it's highly likely they will expand production. Data center growth is still ongoing, but locking orders without production or delivery turns into financial leverage. HDD leads the way; will others be far behind? So the reason SanDisk and Micron also pulled back yesterday mostly relates to supply-side bearishness. Currently, there's no way to boost gross or net profit again; price hikes won't last long due to supply expansion, similar to the logic behind Micron's recent decline—physical limits.
To capture data center market share, they can't keep locking orders indefinitely. They can afford to wait because the difference lies in the grid connection time, which is longer than the storage cycle.
Therefore, the market is a bit chaotic now, lacking the resonance and various optimistic expectations seen before July. It's better to be cautious and trade less.
With the rebound relatively high, continue shorting Hynix.
$SKHYNIX $SNDK
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
-6.35%
Snapshot at 03 Oct 2026, 14:26
Reviewed last month's trades, and indeed they were a complete mess, not following the pattern. Started with a rebound on very low volume, doing range arbitrage, and although the three trades based on news didn't lose money and even made some profit, it was clear that I didn't control the little voice in my heart, lacking patience.
Used naked K-lines of different timeframes all at once. Frequently switched targets, trying to apply four different timeframes to different targets, which definitely didn't work.
Got greedy, causing issues with the entry points of each trade. Not patient enough to execute. Attention was not focused enough.
Next, after adjusting my state, I will separate by entry points and return to trading based on the trend of the timeframe. What to do and what not to do at the end of a rebound cycle. Will strictly adhere to this.
After all, missed trades cost nothing, but reckless trades can lose everything.
If I can't adjust this month, then it's time for more self-discipline. Stay out of the market and understand myself before coming back.
If I want to make another 100x in 3 years, some ups and downs are actually good. The early stage was too smooth, which felt a bit unusual.
Wishing everyone a new month with your accounts soaring all the way.
#财报观察员：美光上调指引，存储需求继续走强
-7.35%
Snapshot at 02 Oct 2026, 17:10
A big pullback on the first day of October, wiping out the $TEM profits 😂. Holding on to wait a bit longer, it’s going to retest the launch platform pivot, which is quite exhausting, but the direction is confirmed: if no stop loss is hit, just ignore it; if stop loss is hit, close the position and look for other opportunities. Wait for another retest of the lower track to stabilize before acting.
The market is too chaotic right now. Range arbitrage has been going on for 2 months. Now we have to wait for the rebound to end before entering and adding to short positions. First wait for the rebound and retest to confirm the end, then expand the short position. Try to trade as little as possible.
Stop arbitrage for now, switch everything to trend trading: $TEM long trend, $SKHYNIX short trend.
See how the non-farm payrolls go tonight; good news could ease some rate hike expectations, which is also good. Because even if they hike, it won’t be much before hitting another peak.
Still watching when US Treasury yields can recover a bit; without ending the stop loss on tech longs, I’m not confident setting it too high.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
-13.96%
Snapshot at 02 Oct 2026, 14:33
Just reviewed Micron's earnings report and organized some key points. $MU
Revenue: The consumer segment's share is almost gone. Now it's mainly data centers.
The earnings report's long-term orders lock in about a quarter of 30 years' revenue,
with a margin of 32 billion and receivables of 150 billion. About 17% is deposits.
The current production expansion bottleneck is the lack of clean rooms, but the clean room construction cycle is about 2-3 years, corresponding to storage starting from 2024. It's roughly okay now. The equipment for clean rooms is not very scarce; the shortage is in manpower and time. Physically, the limit is about this time.
Also, the data center cycle is 2-3 years, and the current limitation for data centers is the queue for grid connection. This is a physical limit that can't be solved by stories, so although computing power is still lacking, the essence is the inability to get data center grid connection approvals.
If the factory building is ready but can't be used, buying chips first doesn't benefit oneself, so locking orders plus queuing for data center grid connection is a win-win.
Therefore, the key is to watch the speed of data center grid connection. This is the hardest and requires a 3-5 year queue, during which storage prices can drop before buying.
So, in terms of the cycle, it's time to start shorting, although there can still be short-term rebounds, the space is insufficient.
But Micron is at least US-based, so still short Hynix.
#财报观察员：美光上调指引，存储需求继续走强
-1.57%
Snapshot at 01 Oct 2026, 16:07
After the $MU earnings report came out, it neither rose nor fell. Although it is not far from the previous high, yesterday the Nasdaq plunged at the close, yet funds flowed into the semiconductor sector. The more important thing is how it performs after today's opening.
PCE met expectations, reducing the probability of inflation-driven rate hikes, combined with falling oil prices, but the Nasdaq did not show much reaction, and US Treasury yields remained unchanged.
I still feel that the rebound cycle is nearing its final stage. The rebound has been oscillating around this level, with little arbitrage space, so only short-term trades are possible, which I am a bit reluctant to do.
Waiting for a higher probability opportunity to open short positions. If the Nasdaq does not break the previous high and Micron remains stagnant, then it's time to increase short positions.
Open a small short position on Hynix first to see the direction of this wave. Set a 10-point stop loss if it follows a trend. Waiting for specific nodes, as the current movement is indeed too chaotic.
As long as TEM's trend is not broken, I will hold on a bit longer.
Going forward, I will no longer do short-term arbitrage, only trend trading.
The direction will emerge.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键
-1.81%
Snapshot at 01 Oct 2026, 12:48