大魔的财富之路
大魔的财富之路
大魔社区创始人，绿洲大学联合创始人，okx2024年交易大赛华语第二。
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From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's current rebound phase highs are continuously rising, and the depth of pullbacks is steadily narrowing, indicating a relatively healthy trend.
However, on a smaller time frame, the resistance around 87000 is very strong. The price has repeatedly tested this level but failed to hold above it. Even when it briefly breaks through, it ultimately falls back with a long upper shadow.
Previously, an effective bottom was formed near 85300, and the core support range has shifted upward to 84800–84020. Without any major unexpected news, the market is likely to continue oscillating within this range.
As for the Nasdaq, the forecast is a weakening consolidation, showing a pattern of initial suppression followed by a rebound.
Trading reference: Bitcoin can be shorted near 86600, with additional positions added if it rises to 87400;
Ethereum can be shorted near 2730, with more added if it breaks through 2760.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
+3,624.46%
Snapshot at 05 Oct 2026, 21:02
This Week's Meeting Minutes
#本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 This week, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the September meeting. This time is quite special because the minutes record the thoughts of the committee members during the September meeting. However, after the meeting ended, the U.S. released a significantly lower-than-expected September nonfarm payroll report, which directly pushed the probability of a rate hike in October down to just 17%. So now the market is using the latest employment data to review the internal divisions within the Fed at that time. The minutes themselves will not update the latest economic data; they can only restore the officials' judgments at that time. There are three main points everyone is most concerned about. First, how many members insisted on another rate hike within the year. If the minutes show that many members still worry about an inflation rebound, which is hawkish, it will push U.S. Treasury yields higher again, suppressing tech stocks and crypto assets. If many members are already worried about employment downturns and advocate pausing rate hikes, which is dovish, it will further consolidate the current easing expectations. Second, how they assess the risk of rising long-term U.S. Treasury yields, that is, whether they worry that high yields will continue to drag down the economy. Third, pay attention to discussions on the inflationary risks brought by oil prices and geopolitical conflicts. Simply put, the market has already priced in a "high probability of no rate hike." • If the minutes are clearly hawkish, it will contrast with current market expectations, causing U.S. Treasury yields to rebound, risk assets to come under pressure, and likely short-term pullbacks. • If the minutes are cautious and acknowledge waiting for more data, it will confirm the current trading logic, benefiting U.S. stocks, computing power sectors, and the crypto market. But note, the minutes are lagging information and it is difficult to directly reverse the big
NVIDIA has once again hit a new all-time high.
On October 2, the intraday high reached $237.88, with intraday gains briefly surpassing 2%, corresponding to a peak market value of about $5.7 trillion. However, it retreated somewhat by the close, finishing at $233.95, up 1.34% for the day. The widely circulated 2.4% figure refers only to the intraday peak gain, not the closing gain.
This round of gains is not merely speculative sentiment. In the recently ended fiscal quarter, the company’s revenue reached $96.2 billion, doubling year-over-year, with the data center business contributing $89 billion as the core growth driver. At the same time, NVIDIA has again increased its stock buyback program, adding a $150 billion quota, leaving $235 billion remaining in authorized buybacks.
Essentially, capital is betting on two things: a continuous stream of computing power orders and the publicly listed company’s genuine commitment to support its stock price with real cash.
Coinciding with the day’s U.S. nonfarm payroll data falling far short of expectations, the market lowered rate hike expectations, bringing collective benefits to the tech sector and adding a layer of macro catalyst for NVIDIA.
Now, with less than $300 billion to reach the $6 trillion market cap threshold, whether it can continue climbing depends entirely on whether performance can keep delivering.
The pricing of the computing power narrative will fluctuate along with it. Mining farms and AI data centers are inherently competing for power resources, and market sentiment often moves in tandem.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #英伟达股价再创历史新高，市值逼近6万亿美元
+3,485.48%
Snapshot at 04 Oct 2026, 22:47
A warning signal has emerged for privacy coin ETFs, as the product recorded its first weekly net outflow since launch, with about $93.6 million withdrawn this week. In contrast, just two weeks ago, this ETF posted a single-week net inflow of $98.2 million, indicating a complete reversal in capital flow.
The market weakened in tandem, with ZEC falling from a previous high of $1690 to around $1300, a drop of nearly 17.5% within a week.
The key issue is not just the simple capital outflow, but that the market just pushed the privacy narrative to a peak, and institutional funds chose to cash out and exit.
Next, focus on key support and resistance levels. $1300 is the first line of defense, while the previous high of $1690 serves as strong trend resistance; only if the price stabilizes above $1500 can the selling pressure caused by the current high-level capital flight be eased.
The short-term market is weak, with the primary observation on whether the $1300 level can hold. If the ETF continues to see outflows for multiple weeks, the strong logic behind this round of privacy coin rally will need to be reassessed. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #ZEC现货ETF连续3日流出，NU7升级临近
+3,504.31%
Snapshot at 04 Oct 2026, 21:46
There have been significant changes in the Ethereum staking end in the past two days.
Data shows that at the beginning of October, the validator exit queue surged to about 850,000 ETH, a nearly 392% increase compared to the start of the month, with a queue waiting time for redemption close to 15 days, hitting a new high this year.
This large-scale exit was mainly due to issues with MetaMask's staking service.
On September 30, MetaMask announced that its infrastructure suffered a security incident and proactively withdrew a batch of affected validator nodes. Rough estimates indicate a total of 17,000 validators involved, amounting to 523,000 ETH. MetaMask stated externally that no user wallets or assets were found to be stolen.
But one thing must be clear: staking exit ≠ direct market sell-off.
Ethereum itself has an exit rate limit mechanism; funds withdrawn from staking can only be unlocked in batches through a queue. Meanwhile, the new staking entry queue still has about 1.51 million ETH, a scale larger than the current exit queue.
The total network staking amount remains stable around 43.7 million ETH, indicating that this is only a localized concentrated unstaking, not a collapse of the entire network's staking wave. $BTC $ETH $SOL
+4,737.28%
Snapshot at 04 Oct 2026, 21:04
#贝森特: The rise in US Treasury yields aligns with the global trend. Besent's statement aims to dispel market fears of a "collective sell-off of US Treasuries by foreign investors and a fiscal crisis in the US." He emphasized that the current rise in long-term bond yields is not unique to the US; countries like Germany, Japan, and the UK are experiencing simultaneous increases in long-term yields, reflecting a global market trend rather than a credit issue specific to the US.
The key implicit message here is: the Treasury Department will not urgently intervene to suppress yields at this stage.
• He admitted he cannot directly price the bond market and is currently only managing expectations, without immediately deploying large-scale long-term bond repurchases to support the market.
• Intervention tools will only be activated if there is a unique sell-off crisis where funds abandon US Treasuries exclusively and shift to sovereign bonds of other countries.
• As long as the rise is synchronized globally, even if long-term rates continue to climb, it remains within the official acceptable range.
Although nonfarm payroll data weakened significantly and the market began betting on a Fed pause in rate hikes, long-term bond yields have not fallen. The root causes are global fiscal financing, geopolitical factors pushing up oil prices, and massive financing in the AI sector creating capital competition. This reflects an increase in term premium, which is no longer solely determined by short-term benchmark rates. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
+3,505.64%
Snapshot at 04 Oct 2026, 20:35
#VanEck: Bitcoin may continue to expand its market share. The core logic comes from the capital tilt brought by the opening of compliant channels. The US spot Bitcoin ETF has become the preferred entry point for traditional institutional allocation, with registered investment advisors, high-net-worth clients, corporate treasuries, and sovereign funds entering in batches. Compared to other crypto assets, Bitcoin's asset attributes are simple and liquidity is the strongest; institutional funds prioritize BTC, and capital will continuously flow from altcoins to Bitcoin, increasing its dominant share in the entire crypto market.
At the same time, Bitcoin's volatility has significantly decreased compared to previous cycles, asset maturity has improved, and more institutions regard it as an alternative inflation-hedging asset in their portfolios, alongside gold. Against the backdrop of ongoing US fiscal pressure and high long-term bond yields fluctuating at elevated levels, capital will continue to seek hard assets that can hedge against currency depreciation.
However, this does not mean all crypto assets benefit simultaneously. VanEck implies a judgment: this round is a typical capital differentiation market, with compliant large funds avoiding most small coins, and capital further concentrating on Bitcoin.
Constraints need to be noted. If macro conditions rapidly shift, liquidity tightens significantly, or crypto regulations tighten again, this trend will be interrupted. Additionally, current BTC and ETH spot ETFs often experience simultaneous capital outflows; short-term capital fluctuations can only be seen as a medium- to long-term trend, not a one-sided market. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
+3,501.38%
Snapshot at 04 Oct 2026, 20:15
#贝森特: The rise in U.S. Treasury yields aligns with global trends. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen has publicly spoken out, attempting to calm panic in the bond market. She stated that the current rise in U.S. Treasury yields is not a crisis unique to the U.S.; long-term bonds in Germany, Japan, the U.K., and other countries are rising simultaneously, reflecting a global common trend and should not be overinterpreted as a U.S. fiscal meltdown.
The core purpose is to dispel market doubts: if U.S. Treasuries were being sold off globally en masse, with funds massively shifting to other countries' bonds, that would be a dangerous signal, but this phenomenon has not appeared so far. At the same time, she admitted she cannot directly control the bond market and will not immediately intervene to support the market or suppress yields at this stage, only guiding the market toward rational trading.
In her view, the current rise in long-term rates mainly stems from geopolitical conflicts pushing up oil prices, massive bond issuance by the global AI industry creating capital competition, combined with investors demanding higher term premiums for long-term bonds. The inflationary impact from energy is temporary, and the U.S. economy itself remains resilient.
This statement is somewhat bearish for risk assets, essentially telling the market that the current high yields are temporarily within an officially acceptable range, and there will be no strong debt rescue policies in the short term. Even if nonfarm payroll data weakens significantly, the room for long-term bond yields to fall will be limited, and U.S. stocks and crypto assets will continue to be suppressed by high interest rates. Only if there is an abnormal, isolated sharp drop in U.S. Treasuries will the Treasury Department possibly use bond repurchase tools to intervene. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
+3,513.06%
Snapshot at 04 Oct 2026, 19:34
Will there be an interest rate hike in October?
The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have successively released the minutes of their September monetary policy meetings. Both central banks chose to raise interest rates in September, mainly due to concerns about inflation rebounding from rising energy prices. However, after the meetings, U.S. nonfarm payroll data came in much weaker than expected, and the market quickly lowered its expectations for a Fed rate hike in October. Currently, the probability of a rate hike in October is only 17%, which is completely different from the market environment at the time of the September meeting. These minutes represent an "old meeting, new pricing" scenario, which can easily trigger market volatility. Key points to watch in the Fed minutes The minutes will reveal the real disagreements and concerns among committee members at the September meeting. 1. Focus on how many members support further rate hikes and whether there is a general belief that inflation risks remain, with service sector inflation being a core concern. 2. Although the September meeting was still hawkish, employment has clearly weakened since then, and the market will compare whether the previous judgments are out of sync with the latest economic data. 3. If the minutes' wording is clearly hawkish, it will temporarily push up U.S. Treasury yields and suppress risk assets; if they mention economic downturn and employment slowdown risks extensively, the market will interpret this as dovish, benefiting stocks and crypto assets. 4. The current market focus has shifted from "whether to raise rates" to whether there is still a possibility of a rate hike at the remaining December meeting this year. Key points to watch in the ECB minutes 1. The Eurozone is also affected by rising oil prices, showing signs of inflation rebound, but the Eurozone economy is weak, facing stagflation pressure. 2. Pay attention to divisions within the Governing Council: some members worry that energy prices are pushing up inflation and advocate continuing rate hikes; others are concerned about...
Rush rush rush
大魔的财富之路
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% In September, the US nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, far below the market expectation of 90,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, wage growth weakened simultaneously, and the labor market significantly cooled down, marking a major disappointment in this round of employment data.
This data directly undermines the core support for the Federal Reserve's rate hike in October. The previously high probability of a rate hike priced in by the market will be quickly downgraded, and the rate hike expectations will be further delayed. Long-term US Treasury yields are likely to face downward pressure, the US dollar weakens, bringing macro-level benefits to risk assets.
However, the market showed a divergence from expectations. Before the nonfarm data release, BTC had already surged past 87000 in advance, but after the data was published, it quickly retreated, resulting in a profit-taking rally. The core reason is that the prior rise had already priced in the expectation of weakening employment, combined with a large amount of profit-taking near 87000, triggering short-term selling pressure and causing a double whammy for bulls and bears.
The underlying driving force of this rally comes from continuous capital inflows into spot ETFs and institutional accumulation at low levels. The nonfarm data is merely a catalyst accelerating the breakout, not the starting point of the rally. In the short term, the macro environment is warming up, but high-level profit-taking pressure cannot be ignored. Chasing highs carries significant risk, and the market is prone to violent fluctuations.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
+3,551.42%
Snapshot at 02 Oct 2026, 23:22