Web山大王
Web山大王
长期关注 Crypto、AI、美股与宏观趋势。 相信 BTC 是数字黄金，也相信市场与万物皆有周期。坚持以价值发现为锚、以周期思维应对波动；OKB Holder，长期主义践行者。 专属社群已开启，点击右上角「群聊」即可加入。群内定期分享市场观点、交易策略与福利活动，期待与你一起交流、洞见周期。
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#US September Nonfarm Payrolls Increase by Only 29,000, Unemployment Rate Rises to 4.2%
The poor nonfarm data really caught people off guard! 😮 Bitcoin surged but was quickly hammered back down.
Only 29,000 jobs were added for the whole month, while the market had originally estimated about 90,000, a big miss. The unemployment rate also rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, higher than expected.
This shows that the initial reaction was just a reflex to the news release; the real money willing to take the risk didn’t follow through.
Moreover, the previous two months were revised downward: August was revised from 162,000 to 133,000, and July from a gain of 21,000 to a loss of 10,000, totaling 60,000 fewer jobs than initially reported. September wages rose only 0.1% for the month!
$BTC was affected by the weak nonfarm data, weakening the case for rate hikes, and indeed surged to around 87,238, but failed to hold that level and fell back to 84,600 a few hours later. The price increase driven by this sentiment has basically played out.
$ETH was even weaker, touching around 2,760 when the data came out, then dropping faster than Bitcoin to around 2,680. It now needs to reclaim the lost ground between 2,800 and 2,900 before it can look toward 3,000.
$SOL followed down to about 122 at the time, then slid back to around 119, nearly erasing its gains. The macro news is back and forth, causing significant volatility.
If you want Bitcoin to have a grand, sweeping rally, you still have to watch the Federal Reserve, interest rates, and the US dollar’s performance!
+1.71%
Snapshot at 03 Oct 2026, 16:02
#BTC、ETH spot ETFs simultaneously see outflows, cooling capital heat
The sky is falling! 😱 Didn't institutions previously buy Bitcoin regardless of price?! 🤔️ Why are they all starting to run?!
The US Bitcoin spot ETF just had about $3.1 billion inflows over 9 consecutive days, but starting September 30, it had net outflows for two days totaling about $173 million.
Ethereum has also had net outflows for 3 days, with about $55.4 million leaving on October 1 alone.
Coinbase also said Bitcoin recently hit a yearly high on profit-taking, and spot buying has clearly slowed down.
$BTC is now consolidating between 85,000 and 86,000; only truly breaking above 86,000 would open the trend, with 82,000 as short-term support below.
$ETH just poked out of the 2,600 range, currently around 2,700 to 2,750. Resistance near 2,770; only if it breaks above can we look toward 2,800.
$SOL is currently around 120, with strong support at 118 below. Last week, the spot ETF set a weekly inflow record of about $188 million, but it has also seen outflows recently, with $5.9 million leaving on October 1.
Mainly, high interest rates have caused institutions to temporarily withdraw from risk assets! If rate hike expectations cool down, these players might bring money back into the crypto market!
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解
-0.01%
Snapshot at 03 Oct 2026, 07:15
The non-farm payroll data has just been released! It's also today's main event. With such weak employment data, will the Fed have room to cut rates later?!🤔️
In September, the US added only 29,000 jobs, while the market had originally expected about 90,000; the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%.
It’s important to note that Treasury yields are still very high, and the dollar is not weak, so poor data does not mean immediate easing is guaranteed.
$BTC has already climbed back above $86,000 this morning, and after the non-farm release, it nudged up a bit more, once approaching $87,000, rising two to three percent in a day. That’s good!😄
$ETH also rose from $2,600 to around $2,750, breaking through the sideways range from late September. The momentum is moderate.
$SOL showed a bit more elasticity, rising to about $122, with a 24-hour gain of 3% to 4%, slightly stronger than Bitcoin and Ethereum.
The market basically hasn’t stirred up much excitement. But interest rates and the dollar are still weighing down! It’s hard to tell if the bull market has truly arrived now!
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解
+1.72%
Snapshot at 02 Oct 2026, 21:32
The key is the September non-farm payrolls at 20:30 Beijing time tonight!
The earlier PCE and ADP reports were just warm-ups! Is the big one coming?! 🤔 Up or down?
If the data is clearly stronger than expected, the dollar and US Treasury yields are likely to surge, and BTC will probably crash.
If weaker than expected, rate hike expectations will fall back, the dollar will retreat, and crypto will definitely rally first.
$BTC has been consolidating recently around 82,000–85,000, with resistance above at 85,000–87,000 and support below at 81,000–83,000.
Funds are clearly waiting for the non-farm data; volume and volatility are suppressed. No big trend can emerge before the data is released.
$ETH is still following BTC, fluctuating roughly between 2650–2750; the chance of an independent move before the non-farm data release is very low.
$SOL has been more active recently, rising more than BTC and ETH over the past month. The price is currently around 118 to 123, about to test resistance at 123 to 126. Support between 116 and 120 has been repeatedly tested and held these days.
Tonight's data will cause significant market volatility, so do not blindly take heavy positions. Only after the data release can a higher probability direction be determined!
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
#Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市
#美伊升级风险再升，布油重回100美元
-0.88%
Snapshot at 02 Oct 2026, 15:12
The market on the first day of October had some short-term support as PCE inflation was slightly below expectations. But whether it can withstand the upcoming non-farm payroll data is the key!🤔️
The 10-year US Treasury yield is still hovering around 5.3, and for crypto assets to surge, this interest pressure needs to be digested first!
$BTC is hovering near $84,000, spiking to $84,300 during the day but quickly pushed back down. There are buyers around $83,000, but sellers keep hitting above $85,500.
The overall trend hasn’t broken down; since rising from above $70,000, the market seems to have lost some momentum.😩
$ETH is also fluctuating, with the price stuck around $2,700, trapped between $2,600 and $2,800! Compared to Bitcoin, it’s less elastic, and it feels like money prefers to stay in Bitcoin.
$ZEC is the riskiest! The nearly doubled gains before have retraced about 6% on October 1st, and it has dropped 13% to 15% over the week. The previous upward channel seems to have been broken, and now it’s oscillating between $1,300 and $1,400.
Overall, the inflation data is a bit better, giving the market a breather, but interest rates haven’t come down, so a big rally is still unlikely!
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键
#比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出
#伊朗收到美国反提案，美伊分歧仍在
+0.04%
Snapshot at 02 Oct 2026, 06:36
Bitcoin looks bearish based on many data releases, it clearly should have plunged hard, but stubbornly refuses to have a big waterfall drop? 🤔️ Is Bitcoin really that strong?? 🤔️
The US 10-year Treasury yield has risen so high that ordinary people find it worthwhile to put money in banks or buy government bonds. The Fed just raised rates once in September and may raise again at the end of October.
The US spot ETF saw institutional inflows of over two billion dollars in one week in late September. Many listed companies treat Bitcoin as reserves, and big holders no longer easily sell off. So the price is holding up, institutions are indeed buying with real money, buying, buying.
$BTC has a lot of trapped positions between 84000 and 86000, and with the 10-year Treasury yield high, money feels safer buying government bonds.
$ETH has been hovering between 2680 and 2720. It closely follows Bitcoin’s pace, rising when the market is good and falling quickly when bad. There is support between 2620 and 2660, and 2500 is a key strong support below that.
$SOL is the most volatile! It’s bouncing around the 119 area. The ups and downs are quite fierce. 116 to 117 is a nearby support, 112 is strong support; if it can’t hold, a big waterfall drop may happen!
Now it’s Friday night with the US September nonfarm payroll data coming out. If employment is too strong, rate hike expectations will definitely rebound again!
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键
#比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解
+9.43%
Snapshot at 01 Oct 2026, 15:36
The PCE data felt like a sudden cool breeze in summer.😄
Inflation was lower than expected, so the market sentiment somewhat relaxed, and the crypto prices jumped a bit accordingly.
But the fact is that bond yields are still hanging high, so now all eyes are on Friday's nonfarm payrolls! If jobs are easy to find and hiring is strong, the higher-ups will be even less likely to cut interest rates.
$BTC spot ETFs are still surging, with institutions treating it as digital gold to hoard. If the 83100 level can hold, consolidation will continue; if it can't break above 84900, reaching previous highs will be even harder.
$ETH's basic trend is following $BTC without deteriorating, but ETFs have seen some outflows recently. The 2660 level is a key battleground between bulls and bears, with the overall trend still consolidating.
$SOL ETFs have had buyers for many consecutive weeks. Online discussions say it’s still speeding up block production, highly elastic, rising fast but also falling quickly. On nonfarm days, its volatility usually intensifies, so managing position size is the top priority.
Friday's data is very critical and may set the major direction going forward! Let's wait and see! Trading opportunities come to those who wait!
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高
+0.01%
Snapshot at 01 Oct 2026, 06:26
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键
$BTC
Looking out the window at the bustling, hurried crowd, everyone usually wonders if the prices of daily expenses have really gone up?!🤔️
Actually, the number to watch isn’t CPI but PCE! Tonight’s report is the last one before the October rate decision meeting. The market expects the core PCE to rise about 0.3% month-over-month and stay around 3.3% year-over-year.
If it’s lower, the rate hike hand might pull back first. If it’s higher, the rate hike blade will be swung again at the end of October. Bitcoin has been sideways these days, just waiting for this news.
By the way, take a look at ZEC—is it a wild coin?!
The U.S. already has the first privacy coin spot ETF, and Europe’s Valour has also launched an ETP. About 30% of coins on-chain have entered shielded pools, so fewer can be sold immediately outside.
Holders just voted to approve NU7, aiming to reduce block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds by November 5, making private transfers faster. It has recently pulled back from highs somewhat and will still be influenced by macro news in the short term.
Before the data comes out, it’s all a gamble. A proper trader doesn’t gamble but waits for the data to land before making a move!
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高
-4.63%
Snapshot at 30 Sept 2026, 15:36
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3%
When interest rates rise, people naturally put their money into places that earn income even while they sleep.
This is a result that anyone can figure out.
US Treasury yields keep pushing higher every day! The 10-year yield has reached around 5.2, and the 30-year yield has topped just above 5.5, levels not seen in nearly twenty years. 😱 Witnessing history again!
The expectation of another rate hike in October has risen to about 70%. Gold doesn’t generate interest, and with bond yields so attractive, funds naturally flow into the dollar and bonds.
Neither gold nor Bitcoin generate interest, so is it possible that big money might flee?! 🤔️
Bitcoin has also fallen along with gold! But gold is worse off this time, being directly crushed by the high interest rates.
Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain relatively stable. The US spot Bitcoin ETF has attracted over two billion dollars in the past week, pulling this year’s net inflow from negative back into positive.
But if yields don’t fall, don’t expect a sudden surge to 100,000!
This week also brings PCE and nonfarm payroll data. Until the data lands, no one knows the outcome!
Expectations for PCE and rate hikes need to ease for Bitcoin to get some breathing room!
The current situation is very awkward 😅 with the direction unclear!
Learning to wait is actually part of a trading system!
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
+0.31%
Snapshot at 30 Sept 2026, 06:32
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
Where does $BTC get the confidence to hold around 84,000?! 🤔️ Who's buying?
It used to be driven by retail sentiment, but now veteran asset managers like BlackRock and Fidelity are pushing in daily with spot ETFs, and the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund is quietly increasing its position.
Could it be that inflation and employment data can't stop Bitcoin from charging toward $1 million for institutions?! 😊
This Wednesday at 8:30 PM, August PCE will be released first. The market roughly expects core year-over-year at 3.4% and month-over-month at 0.3%.
The Fed just raised rates by 25 basis points in September, and the dot plot hints at possibly one more hike this year. PCE is their most trusted inflation data; if the numbers are soft, the urgency for further hikes can ease.
Otherwise, the probability of a rate hike in October will rise again. At the same time on Friday, September nonfarm payrolls will be released. The expectation is an increase of 80,000 to 90,000, less than August's 160,000, with unemployment possibly at 4.2%. If employment remains strong, it means the economy isn't falling apart, making rate cuts even harder.
Currently consolidating around 84,000, no one can guess the direction before the data drops. The safest approach is usually to build a small position and wait for the data to come out and the market trend to become clear before making a move to seek steady wins!
This PCE is still very important for the market; a mature trader won't go all in recklessly!
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3%
-0.19%
Snapshot at 29 Sept 2026, 15:50