#The probability of another Fed rate hike in October exceeds 55%
The probability of another rate hike in October has already surpassed 55%. Is BTC about to replay 2022? I think it's not that simple.
In 2023, the Fed raised rates 4 times, yet $BTC rose from 16,000 all the way to 32,000. Later, the market shifted from "continued rate hikes" to "pause," then to "rate cut expectations," and BTC ultimately surged to 73,000.
What the market is really trading is not the rate hike itself, but whether expectations have started to turn.
Now that the probability of another rate hike in October has risen back above 55%, there is naturally short-term pressure. BTC is currently around 77,000, with 75,500 being a key support level I’m watching. Only if it climbs back above 78,000 will there be a chance to test 80,000 or even 81,500.
$ETH is also looking at around 2,400; as long as it holds here, the structure isn’t broken. Only by climbing back above 2,500 can the weakness truly be reversed.
So don’t just focus on "more rate hikes" now. What really matters is whether this probability can drop back down from 55%. As long as oil prices, inflation, or employment start to improve, the market may begin to trade the next phase early.
By the time rate cuts actually happen, it’s often no longer the most comfortable position to be in.
