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峰哥的交易日记
峰哥的交易日记
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1565美元的ZEC,你还敢买吗? 先看表面:涨疯了,但没人敢下车。 过去一个月从470干到1565,涨幅170%+,周涨30%+,市值冲到250亿。突破了2018年高点,进入价格发现阶段——上方没有套牢盘,理论上能涨到任何位置。EMA多头排列,ADX趋势强度爆表,多周期Strong Buy。趋势还在,但过热了。 第一件事:这波不是炒概念,是真金白银在进场 Grayscale ZCSH现货ETF,8月25日上线,AUM从5亿快速抬到7-8亿,还有3拆1计划。Paradigm的Matt Huang公开持仓ZEC,还投了生态开发。NU7治理投票,240万ZEC参与,99.9%支持把出块时间从75秒砍到25秒——隐私交易速度快3倍。 机构通道已经打开,钱在往里灌 顶级VC不只是看,是真金白银在投 网络要升级,隐私交易体验直接起飞 第二件事:隐私正在被重新定价 AI监控遍地、链上分析公司天天扒你钱包、监管越来越细——这个时候,"可选隐私"从"极客玩具"变成了"刚需"。 ZEC是少数能做到:透明+屏蔽双轨,总量2100万硬顶,减半机制跟BTC一模一样。屏蔽池占比已经到30%,Ledger接入,社区锁仓开发基金态度明确。 第三件事:技术面出现了一个必须警惕的信号 日线RSI约75,周线更高,布林带上轨就在1565附近。4小时出现顶背离,上攻节奏变钝。 抛物线主升浪的特征是什么?涨得让你怀疑人生,然后一波20-40%的回撤让你怀疑自己。 上方:1588-1633(近期高点),突破看1800、1865、2000 第一支撑:1500-1518 强支撑:1400-1420、1375 生死线:1330,跌破主升浪结构受损 1565不是"闭眼买"的位置,是"贵了还是还能贵"的博弈区。 多空对决,你自己看 一边是: ETF持续吸金,AUM从5亿到8亿 Paradigm公开持仓+投资生态 NU7升级11月主网,速度翻3倍 屏蔽池30%,隐私刚需被重新定价 减半周期还在,供给持续收缩 一边是: RSI 75,日线周线双超买 一个月涨170%,获利盘随时砸盘 周末流动性薄,插针风险高 利好已经定价,兑现就是利空 1330跌破,主升浪结束 操作策略 偏多思路: 等回踩1518-1500或1400-1420企稳(长下影+放量止跌),分批做多。止损1375或入场下方5-8%。目标1588-1630,突破看1800。到第一目标减仓一半。 偏空思路: 冲1588-1600滞涨、长上影、4H顶背离,轻仓试空。止损必须1630上方,目标1518、1420。 关注10月20日NU7最终决定 跌破1330放量,认主升浪结束 ZEC现在就像2020年的比特币—— 所有人觉得"隐私币没戏",结果ETF一上线,机构直接买爆。 但记住:涨了170%之后,你需要的是耐心,不是FOMO。 1565这个位置,你敢追还是等回调? $BTC $ETH $ZEC
峰哥的交易日记
峰哥的交易日记
UNI at $9.1, did you chase the L? First, look at the surface: it took only 48 hours to go from unwanted to in high demand. Up 17% on September 17, up another 13% on the 18th, a 45% surge on the weekly chart, and a 140% surge on the monthly chart. 24-hour trading volume exploded, contract open interest soared, and short liquidations far exceeded longs. The weekly chart broke out of a nearly two-year descending wedge, the daily chart is above all major moving averages with a bullish alignment, and the trend is strengthening — but the short-term RSI is already overheated. First thing: the SEC handed UNI a knife, and the market instantly understood. On September 17, the SEC issued an "innovation exemption," allowing qualified venues to trade tokenized U.S. stocks through licensed AMMs for five years. Uniswap v4’s permissioned pools fit exactly this framework. UNI used to be the "governance token of a decentralized exchange," now it’s the "compliance infrastructure for Wall Street assets on-chain." Second thing: UNI is no longer just air; it’s starting to burn tokens. By the end of 2025, UNIfication will launch, protocol fee switches will open, and part of the trading fees will be used for buyback and burn. UNI burned $9.3 million in August alone, and protocol revenue from January to July 2026 is about $28.2 million. Cumulative trading volume is $3.7 trillion, TVL is $3.8 billion, multi-chain deployment, the absolute leader in DEXs. If tokenized stocks really go on-chain, if RWA really explodes, UNI will be the toll collector. If you think it’s expensive now, wait until it really captures Wall Street’s volume, then you’ll be slapping your thigh saying, "Why didn’t I buy at $9?" Third thing: the technicals have fundamentally changed, but chasing short-term highs is just giving away your head. Weekly chart broke out of a two-year descending wedge, the 200-week EMA turned from resistance to support, daily moving averages are bullish — the mid-term structure has indeed turned bullish. But: From 6.6 to 9.3, it surged 40% straight without a decent pullback Low timeframe RSI is overbought, weekend liquidity is poor, false breakout probability is high Contract funding rates are positive, open interest rising, longs are crowded Long-short battle, judge for yourself On one side: SEC innovation exemption directly benefits Uniswap v4 permissioned pools Protocol fee switch + burn mechanism gives UNI cash flow capture RWA + tokenized U.S. stocks narrative opens incremental ceiling Weekly breakout of two-year descending wedge, mid-term structure turns bullish On the other side: Severe short-term overbought, strong pullback demand Clarity Act not passed, regulatory uncertainty remains Hawkish rate hikes landed, altcoin liquidity under pressure Competing DEXs (Aerodrome, etc.) continue to siphon volume Resistance above: 9.34-9.50 → 10-11 → 12.70 (wedge target) Support below: 8.80-8.90 → 8.11 → 7.69 → 7.50 (lifeline) Trading strategy Aggressive short-term: Quickly recover from 8.8-8.9 pullback with volume support, light position long, stop loss below 8.65, target 9.3-9.5 to reduce position. Steady swing: Wait for pullback to 7.7-8.2 range, volume contraction and bottom structure appear, then enter mid-term longs. Mid-term logic is protocol fee burn + RWA narrative, target 10.5-12.7, stop loss at 7.4 or daily close below 7.5. Bearish idea: At 9.35-9.5, volume stalls, long upper shadows or divergence, light position short, target 8.8, stop loss above 9.6 At 6.6 you said it was just a governance token, at 9.3 you say chasing high risk is big. So, when exactly do you plan to buy? UNI has transformed from a "pure governance token" to an asset with "burn mechanism + RWA imagination space." Mid-term structure turned bullish, but the short-term surge from 6.6 to 9.3 is an emotional climax that needs time to digest. Prioritize waiting for pullback confirmation rather than chasing at 9.1. At 9.1, do you dare to chase? $BTC $ETH $UNI

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