ETH at $2640, do you still dare to chase?
First, look at the surface: a big bullish candle, like an army gathering.
In the past 24 hours, it rose 1.1%, with a single-day surge of 6.7% on Friday, the price volume expanded from around 2440 to 2640. Market cap surpassed the 300 billion level, and trading volume clearly increased. The candlestick tells you: the price is far above the 50-day moving average of 2257 and the 200-day moving average of 2073, with moving averages in a bullish alignment—a textbook-level uptrend.
First thing: The SEC dropped a "nuke," but 99% of people didn’t understand it.
The US SEC launched a 5-year "innovation exemption" pilot, allowing tokenized NMS stocks to be traded via Ethereum smart contracts—synthetic assets are prohibited.
From now on, US stocks can be traded on-chain through Ethereum. This is not just a concept; it’s a compliance pilot, stamped by the SEC.
This is ETH’s "identity upgrade." From the king of altcoins to compliant financial infrastructure.
Second thing: Macro is dragging behind, but the market chose to "buy certainty."
On September 16, the FOMC raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, the first hike since July 2023. The dot plot is hawkish, with 2026 PCE inflation expectations at 3.7%, and possibly another hike by year-end.
According to the old script, rate hikes = risk assets crash, BTC should have crashed first as a warning.
But what actually happened?
BTC first dropped then quickly recovered, breaking through 80,000 directly. ETH followed, pulling out a big bullish candle on Friday.
Macro is a headwind, but the narrative is a tailwind. When the wind is strong enough, you can take off even against the wind.
Third thing: On-chain data tells an "old but always right" story.
Staking ratio about 35% of supply, exit queue almost zero—no one wants to sell.
On-chain fees dropped to an average of $0.095, L2 traffic clearly diverted, mainnet no longer congested.
Glamsterdam upgrade public test on October 6, focusing on parallel execution and ePBS.
Stablecoin market cap share is high, most RWA tokenization projects choose ETH.
ETH is transforming from a "speculative coin" to a "utility coin." The more users, the stronger the price floor.
On one side:
SEC tokenization pilot, ETH upgraded to a compliant settlement layer.
ETF inflow of $144 million in one day, institutional channels opening.
35% staking lock-up, zero exit queue.
Bullish moving averages, 50-day/200-day all below price.
On the other side:
Fed hawkish, possibly another hike this year.
RSI above 70, short-term overbought.
Positive funding rate, crowded longs.
Thin weekend liquidity, high risk of false breakout.
Resistance above: 2660-2686 (recent highs + psychological level) → 2746 → 2800 → 3000
Support below: 2600 (round number + breakout retest) → 2586-2590 → 2540-2550 → 2500 (psychological) → 2430-2450 (Friday start point, strong demand zone)
Daily close effectively below 2500 or 2430 signals short-term structural weakness.
Trading strategy
Conservative long:
Wait for a pullback to 2580-2605 area, enter light long positions. Stop loss below 2550 or 2530. First target 2680-2700, second target 2740-2760. Reduce half position at target, hold the rest to see if it can hold above 2700.
If it breaks out with volume above 2665-2680 and holds, chase a small portion with stop loss below 2640.
Short-term/swing:
Wait for 4-hour level pullback or clear rejection wick before considering. If it breaks below 2580 and rebounds weakly, short lightly to target 2500-2540 pullback.
Mid-term view:
If 2600 support holds + ETF continues net inflow, next target 2800-3000. If macro tightens further or ETF sees large outflows again, may retest 2500 or even 2430 to rebuild base.
Do not go full position; keep bullets for October upgrade test or ETF inflow confirmation.
ETH has never risen by hype calls, but by "more and more users."
From 2440 to 2640, you hesitated. When it reaches 3000, will you regret not buying?
At 2640, do you chase longs or wait for a pullback?
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