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峰哥的交易日记
峰哥的交易日记
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93美元的HYPE,你追不追? 先看表面:新高后回落,但趋势没坏。 24小时从94.5回撤2%,现货92.3-92.6,OKX永续93附近。市值232亿,排前10。日线、4小时全是上升趋势,从75-76启动,突破下降趋势线后加速。4小时RSI一度79超买,日线RSI 66——短线烫手,中线没病。 第一件事:新产品上线,HYPE从“币”变成了“抵押品” 平台刚推出手动借贷:用户可以用HYPE或BTC抵押,借USDC/USDT。上线首日借款规模2.69亿美元。 翻译成人话:以前你拿着HYPE只能等涨,现在可以抵押借钱继续玩。 HYPE的需求不再只是炒作,而是变成了平台里的“硬通货”。 第二件事:99%手续费回购销毁,但高估值是原罪 Hyperliquid年化手续费约10亿美元,99%进入Assistance Fund,回购并销毁HYPE。永续DEX收入份额约80%。 流通市值232亿,FDV约880亿 收入高度依赖永续交易量 9月29日解锁1420万枚,10月6日核心贡献者解锁992万枚 回购是真香,解锁也是真疼。 过去几次解锁价格都消化了,但这次名义规模不小,你怕不怕? 第三件事:宏观不友好,但BTC站上了8.1万 美联储刚加息25bp到3.75%-4.00%,偏鹰。无收益资产承压。 但BTC从前天7.6-7.7万反弹到8.1万附近,加密总市值2.76万亿,情绪偏贪婪。HYPE相对BTC更强,属于“有基本面的高Beta”。大盘给脸色,HYPE自己争气。 多空对决,你自己看 一边是: 新产品落地,HYPE抵押需求真实增加 年化10亿手续费,99%回购销毁 TVL追平Arbitrum,未平仓创纪录 机构持仓2930万枚,Kraken母公司计划合规接入美国用户 一边是: 刚创ATH,短线超买,回调概率不低 9月29日+10月6日连续解锁,抛压悬顶 FDV 880亿,高估值需要持续高收入撑 美联储偏鹰,宏观不友好 上方阻力:95-97 → 100心理关 → 108-115 下方支撑:89-90(前高+心理关)→ 80-82(前期突破区)→ 74.8-76.4(本轮启动平台) 操作策略 激进短线: 93附近轻仓试多,止损91.5-92下方,目标95-97先出部分,再看100。小仓位,别上头。 稳健做法: 等回踩89.5-91分批做多,止损88下方。第一目标100,第二目标108。跌破88减仓或观望。 空头条件: 日线收盘跌破89且放量,或回踩80-82不守,再考虑逢高做空,目标76-78。 中长线: 认可回购逻辑,93可视为趋势持仓位,但要扛得住解锁波动。真正大跌到75-80,才是大幅加仓的位置。 HYPE不是meme,它是永续DEX的现金奶牛—— 但再好的资产,买贵了也会套人。 你怕高,它怕你不追;你追了,它怕你不割。 93这个位置,你敢追还是等回踩? $BTC $ETH $HYPE
峰哥的交易日记
峰哥的交易日记
$0.062 AKE, do you still dare to chase? First, look at the surface: it’s gone crazy, but crazily enough to make people uneasy. In the past 24 hours, it shot up vertically from 0.026 to 0.062, a 130% increase, with an intraday high of 0.068, hitting a recent peak. Market cap is 1.3-1.5 billion, trading volume exploded. Moving averages are in a bullish alignment, RSI is overbought across the board, sometimes above 80, a typical "accelerated topping" characteristic. First thing: OK perpetual contracts launched, liquidity maxed out in 3 days On September 16, OK officially launched AKE/USDT perpetual contracts with up to 20x leverage. Funding rates briefly turned negative, indicating shorts and hedgers entering the market. Open interest surged, intense long-short battles. Second thing: Unlock in 2 days, a sword hanging overhead On September 21, about 211 million AKE will unlock, accounting for 2.1% of total supply and about 9% of current circulating market cap. Unlock recipients: investors 47%, insiders 22%, community 30%. At the current 0.062 price, that’s about $120-130 million selling pressure. Historically, for mid-small cap projects, after a surge and before unlock, the script is almost identical: Before unlock: hype expectations, pump, FOMO entry At unlock: first dump to cash out, then panic selling After unlock: either zero out or shake out for three months before pumping again Third thing: AI+GameFi narrative is sexy, but fundamentals are still lean Akedo positions itself as an AI-native game creation engine + Launchpad on BNB Chain, using multi-agent systems to turn natural language prompts into playable games within 2 minutes, then one-click game token issuance. The narrative fits current market preferences; the team reportedly has PUBG and LOL backgrounds, with a $5 million seed round. But the truth is: Total supply 100 billion, circulating only 22.8 billion (22.8%), with unlocks continuing until 2029 Actual daily active users, game retention, fee income — data is not solid enough Market cap 1.3-1.5 billion, fully diluted valuation even higher, narrative premium is already very full Long-short showdown, you decide On one side: OKX perpetual launch, liquidity surges AI+GameFi+Launchpad, narrative matches current market BTC above 81,000, altcoins broadly rising, greed index high Community FOMO, X posts showing hundreds to thousands of times gains On the other side: 211 million unlock in 2 days, 9% selling pressure of circulating market cap 600% monthly rise, RSI severely overbought, parabolic topping Only 22.8% circulating, unlocks continue until 2029 Copycat projects flooding, actual data not solid Resistance above: 0.065-0.068 (today’s high) → 0.07-0.08 (sentiment target) Support below: 0.055-0.058 (intraday pullback) → 0.045-0.050 (previous dense zone) → 0.035-0.040 (strong support, break accelerates dump) Trading strategy If holding longs: Scale out to lock profits. Don’t wait for 0.1. Set take profit/stop loss below 0.058-0.055, or reduce position to a comfortable level for sleep. Volatility will increase 2 days before unlock, don’t be greedy. If wanting to go long: Wait for a pullback to 0.052-0.055 with shrinking volume to stabilize, or clearly hold above 0.065 and test pullback without breaking before trying a small long. If bearish/hedging: Wait for a failed rally (0.065-0.068 repeatedly resisted, long upper shadows or volume stagnation), short lightly, target 0.055 then 0.048, stop loss above new highs. AKE now is like the busiest table in a casino— The music is still playing, drinks are still pouring, but you don’t know when the music will stop, the lights will come on, and you’ll realize you’re the one paying the bill. A coin up 600% monthly, doubling one day and halving the next, 10 years of experience tells me: the ones who lose the most at this time are always those who think "it’s already gone up so much, it must double again." At 0.062, do you dare to chase long or prepare to short? $BTC $ETH $AKE

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