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峰哥的交易日记
峰哥的交易日记
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3.70美元的NEAR,你要追吗? 先看表面:利好轰炸,但价格不涨了。 过去一周涨47%-53%,月线翻倍以上,24h成交量放大到十亿美元级别。但今天在3.70附近磨蹭,RSI冲到73-77,超买。短期过热,别追。 第一件事:机密永续+Intents,这次不是空气。 Hyperliquid集成机密永续,默认隐藏仓位、方向和身份。NEAR Intents跨链意图层TVL月增77%到1.69亿,周成交破10亿。手续费回购,通胀目标降到2.5%。 NEAR从“分片L1”变成了“链抽象+隐私交易+AI Agent基础设施” 机构有SVRN囤币,Bitwise/21Shares/Grayscale质押产品在跑 周线已经涨了五成,利好已经被吃掉一大块。 第二件事:美联储加息,高Beta山寨最怕的刀。 9月16日美联储加息25bp到3.75%-4.00%,还放话“后续可能继续收紧”。BTC在8万附近,ETH 2570,BTC主导率59%,山寨季没确认。 NEAR是高Beta。BTC跌,它跌更狠。 第三件事:技术面倒头肩突破,但位置不对。 周线倒头肩,颈线3.10-3.12,放量突破。目标有人看5,甚至8-11。日线均线多头排列,但RSI超买,价格贴着布林上轨。从2.34拉到3.7,抛物线后半段。 多空对决,你自己看 一边是: 机密永续+Intents放量,产品落地 TVL月增77%,手续费回购 周线倒头肩突破,结构多头 机构质押产品+囤币叙事 一边是: 美联储加息,高利率压制风险资产 RSI 73-77超买,获利盘随时兑现 BTC若破8万,NEAR优先被砍 周末流动性差,假突破概率高 上方阻力:3.75 → 3.90-4.00 → 4.20 下方支撑:3.50-3.55 → 3.35 → 3.20 → 3.10 操作策略 短线选手: 等回踩3.48-3.55且4H止跌,轻仓试多,止损3.32-3.35,目标3.75/3.95-4.20。突破3.78-3.80站稳再追,止损突破K低点。 波段玩家: 3.50-3.75箱体震荡3-7天,消化RSI,这是最健康的。日线失守3.35放量,回踩3.10颈线是趋势考试,不是抄底理由。 长线信仰者: 等回踩3.50以下或突破4.0确认再动手。仓位总风险1%-1.5%,10x以上别碰。NEAR有产品托底,但3.70追多就是给狗庄送钱。 NEAR这次有产品,不是纯空气拉盘—— 但3.70这个位置,最贵的是情绪,最便宜的是等待。 同样的倒头肩,3.10你没上车,3.70你追进去,一个回调你就扛不住。 你的NEAR成本是多少? 3.70这个位置,你敢追还是等回踩? $BTC $ETH $NEAR
峰哥的交易日记
峰哥的交易日记
$0.05 AKE, do you still dare to bet? First, look at the surface: it tripled in a week, and multiplied six times in a month. It surged wildly from the low point to 0.08-0.16, then suddenly crashed back to 0.05. The 24-hour trading volume is hundreds of millions of dollars, contract open interest is off the charts, parabolic rise followed by high-level oscillation, overbought pullback, RSI dropped from the sky to the ground. Everyone knows a correction is coming, but everyone thinks they can escape before the correction. First thing: Tomorrow’s unlock, will $100 million dump the market or is the good news already priced in? On September 21, 2.11 billion AKE tokens will unlock, accounting for 2.11% of total supply, worth about $105-127 million at current prices. Recipients: Investors 47%, insiders 22%, community 30%. In plain terms, more than half of the unlocked tokens likely cost only a tenth of your price. They got them from the seed round until now, multiplying many times over. The market has already priced in some selling pressure, but are you really sure the pricing is enough? Second thing: OKEx launched 20x leverage contracts, is it an opportunity or a meat grinder? On September 16, OKEx launched AKE USDT perpetual contracts with up to 20x leverage. Liquidity has indeed improved, but the flip side of better liquidity is — more efficient harvesting. Third thing: Fundamentals, the narrative is sexy, but where is the product? Akedo positions itself as an AI multi-agent game engine + Launchpad on BNB Chain. The narrative hits AI + GameFi, seed round raised $5 million. Total supply is 100 billion, circulating only 22.8 billion (22.8%), with monthly unlocks on the 21st. Circulating market cap is $1.1-1.3 billion, fully diluted valuation is absurdly high. There is currently no strong support from product launch or actual usage data. What supports the valuation? The narrative, liquidity, and retail investors like you rushing in. High narrative, high dilution, high volatility — a triple-high target, suitable for speculation, not for investment. Bull vs. bear, you decide: On one side: Tomorrow’s unlock, $100 million selling pressure looming Insiders + investors hold 69% of unlocked tokens, very low cost On-chain wash trading/suspicious volume inflation Technical overbought pullback, support at 0.0418; if broken, downside to 0.03 Fed just hiked 25bp, macro is tight, altcoins rely on their own narrative On the other side: AI + GameFi narrative is hot, seed round backed by institutions OKEx contract launch improves liquidity, high capital attention Negative funding rate, crowded shorts may trigger a rebound Community rewards distribution, active community holdings BTC above 80k, ETF inflows, risk appetite intact Resistance above: 0.055-0.062 → 0.068 → 0.08+ Support below: 0.0418 (strong support) → 0.029-0.031 (deep water zone) Trading strategy: 1. Wait and see first: Tomorrow’s unlock is a clear event, watch the reaction 4-12 hours after unlock. If volume spikes and it breaks below 0.042 without holding, downside could open to 0.03 or even lower. 2. Short-term short idea: If it rebounds to 0.055-0.062 and meets resistance with long upper shadows or volume stagnation, consider light short positions. Stop loss above recent structural highs (around 0.068), targets at 0.042 and 0.03. 3. Long idea: After unlock settles, if it stabilizes with low volume around 0.042-0.045 and then rallies with volume above 0.055, consider light long positions to play the rebound. AKE’s biggest problem now is not the narrative, not the market — It’s the token structure. You entered at 0.05, insiders at 0.005. You open 20x leverage, they dump spot. You watch the candlesticks, they watch your principal. It rose 6 times, you dare not go up; it dropped 50%, you dare not cut losses. You’re not trading coins, you’re being traded by coins. After tomorrow’s unlock, the market will give the answer. But remember one thing: In this market, the most expensive thing is not the coin, it’s your illusion. What is your AKE cost? Tomorrow’s unlock, do you dare to bet? $BTC $ETH $AKE

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