Do you know which month Bitcoin performs best in during the year?
It's not November, not December, and not even the halving month.
It's October.
From 2013 to 2025, in 13 Octobers, Bitcoin closed higher 10 times and lower 3 times. The average return was 18.52%, with a median of 12.73%.
No other month is stronger than October.
Within these 13 Octobers, there are three stories. Understanding them, you can probably guess what will happen this October.
📖 October 2013: +60.79% — Bitcoin is seen by the world for the first time
In October 2013, Bitcoin was just over $100.
No one took it seriously. The mainstream narrative was "Tulip bubble 2.0" or "a toy for dark web drug dealers."
The turning point happened in Cyprus.
At the beginning of 2013, Cyprus experienced a banking crisis. The government directly froze bank deposits and even proposed confiscating part of depositors' money to fill the gaps. People suddenly realized: the money you think is in the bank might not actually be yours.
At that time, few people knew about Bitcoin. But those who did started buying like crazy.
By October, Bitcoin rose from just over $100 to nearly $200. The monthly increase of 60.79% remains the strongest October in Bitcoin's history.
Then what? Mainstream media began reporting on Bitcoin for the first time. CNN, Forbes, The Wall Street Journal all had headlines asking, "Is this a currency or a bubble?"
October 2013 taught us one thing: a big October rally needs an "external catalyst" — a reason for ordinary people to suddenly realize "I need this thing."
📖 October 2017: +47% — Building momentum for the $20,000 frenzy
In October 2017, Bitcoin was around $4,300.
That was the height of the ICO craze. Everyone was issuing tokens, everyone was scrambling for coins. Whitepapers of just a couple pages could raise tens of millions of dollars.
But the real explosion happened after October.
October saw Bitcoin rise from $4,300 to $6,300, a 47% increase. Then November and December followed with a wild surge — two months later, Bitcoin hit $20,000.
October 2017 taught us: October isn't necessarily the end point; it can be the "starting gun." The gains that month laid the foundation for an even crazier rally ahead.
📖 October 2021: +42% — The trumpet call of institutional entry
In October 2021, Bitcoin was around $43,000.
After the dark moments of May when Chinese miners were expelled and July when it dropped to $30,000, the market was just crawling out of the shadows.
Then, the ProShares Bitcoin Futures ETF was approved, the first Bitcoin ETF in the US was launched.
This was the first compliant entry channel for institutional funds. Bitcoin rose from $43K to $61K, up 42%. Ethereum rose 42.92% in the same period, marking ETH's best October on record.
October 2021 taught us: October's catalyst can come from breakthroughs in "compliance." When regulators open a door, funds flood in like a torrent.
📖 October 2025: -4% — The October blown up by "tariffs"
Last October deserves a special mention.
Because it was the only recent October that closed down despite large ETF inflows.
The story goes like this: at the beginning of October, Bitcoin surged to an all-time high of $126,080. Everyone was shouting "Uptober is back."
Then, on October 10, Trump suddenly threatened to impose 100% tariffs on China.
The market exploded instantly.
Over $19 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated, the largest liquidation event in crypto history.
"Uptober" turned into "Rektober."
October 2025 taught us: even if all conditions are in place, a black swan event can overturn everything. Geopolitical risk is the biggest uncertainty in October.
🔑 Summary of the pattern: What does a big October rally need?
Connecting the four stories above, you find:
A big October rally requires two conditions to be met simultaneously —
1. Expectations of loose liquidity (or at least no tightening)
2013: Banking crisis sparked "debanking" demand.
2017: Global central banks were still easing.
2021: The Fed was still buying bonds.
2025: Tariff shock → expectations of liquidity tightening → crash.
2. A new narrative catalyst
2013: Cyprus banking crisis — Bitcoin was first seen as a "safe haven asset."
2017: ICO frenzy — a new paradigm for token fundraising.
2021: Spot ETF approval — a milestone in compliance.
2025: Tariff shock — narrative violently interrupted.
What about this year?
🔥 Two key variables for October 2026
Variable one: Waller's stance
On September 16, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4%, the first hike since 2023.
But the story reversed at the end of September. August core PCE data was below expectations, and New York Fed President Williams publicly said "no need to rush the next step." The probability of a rate hike in October dropped sharply from 70% to 40%.
Meanwhile, Trump publicly pressured Waller, saying the Fed chair "should have voted against the rate hike," complaining that "good data actually led to higher rates."
Waller's position will determine October's direction.
If he presses pause at the October 28 meeting — market expectations for rate cuts will reignite, and Bitcoin's overall backdrop will warm up.
If he continues hiking — the dollar strengthens, and risk assets come under pressure.
Variable two: ETF ledger
From September 21 to 29, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows for 7 consecutive trading days, totaling about $2.483 billion.
On September 30, ETFs had a net outflow of $139.2 million, the first in 7 trading days.
On October 1, ETFs resumed net inflows of $103 million, with BlackRock's IBIT seeing a single-day net inflow of $196 million.
ETF fund flows are the most direct "fuel" for this rally. Continuous inflows support the market; interruptions in inflows make pullbacks inevitable.
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