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August PCE has lowered the probability of a rate hike in October. Will the September non-farm payrolls bring the October rate hike probability back? As of now, the probability of a rate hike in October is 23.8%, and in December it is 63.4%. Although the rate hike expectations have been pushed back, strictly speaking, the probability of a rate hike is still in an uncertain phase. #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 For the market, a predictable pace of rate hikes is not scary; what is scary is uncertain rate hikes, which make the market hesitant to price in advance. Therefore, tonight's major non-farm payroll data is very important. Currently, the forecast range for this month's non-farm payrolls is 350,000 to 1.8 million, with the main expectation concentrated between 840,000 and 900,000. The previous August figure of 1.62 million was considered by most economists to be amplified by seasonal factors. So tonight, we need to look not only at the September non-farm payrolls but also at the revision of the August data. Based on tonight's 900,000 figure, three different scenarios can be classified: a. Best data: ≤ 500,000, unemployment rate ≥ 4.2%, wages ≤ 3.1%. This is dovish data indicating cooling employment, which limits the Fed's rate hike space. It will not only further weaken the October rate hike expectations but may also lead the market to discuss whether to hike in December!? b. Neutral data: This is also the Fed's most ideal data combination, with non-farm payrolls between 800,000 and 1 million, unemployment rate at 4.1%, wages around 3.2%. This means stable employment and wage growth, economic resilience, and is most favorable for rate hike space. At this time, the probability of a December rate hike will further increase, so the market should pay attention to December