Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly cooled rate hike expectations, but I'm still holding short positions
Tonight's nonfarm payrolls came in at 29,000, expected 90,000, a direct surprise. Rate hike expectations dropped sharply, the market got excited, BTC surged to 87,000, ETH also pulled up. But I'm still holding short positions, why? Because the current risks are not in rate hikes, but elsewhere.
$BTC
BTC surged to 87,000, up over 3%, looks strong. But the range from 87,000 to 90,000 is all previous trapped positions, it's not easy to break through at once. The nonfarm surprise is indeed positive, but when the good news is fully priced in, it turns negative. Also, oil prices remain high, the situation in Iran is tense, the Strait of Hormuz can be closed at any time, if oil prices spike, inflation returns, and rate hike expectations rise again. Trump's midterm elections are approaching, policies can change suddenly, uncertainty is high.
$ETH
I'm still holding my short at 2671 on ETH, now around 2750, a small loss. But I'm not worried, ETH is weaker than BTC, strong resistance at 2800 above, it can't break through. ETF funds have been flowing out, the ecosystem has no new stories, price rises just follow the market. The nonfarm positive news has been digested, it should fall.
$ZEC
The privacy coin logic still holds, but this coin is very volatile, nonfarm data has limited impact, mainly speculation by capital. Play with small positions only.
Summary: The nonfarm surprise is positive, but only short-term. The real risks lie in oil prices, Iran situation, and Trump's midterm elections. Without resolving these uncertainties, the market won't trend unilaterally. Holding short positions, wait until the positive news is fully digested before reassessing
