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二牛他哥
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
HBM4能提振盈利，但Q3只是起点，不是主兑现窗口。Q3利润主力仍是传统DRAM/NAND涨价；HBM4已于Q2量产，下半年收入占比逐步抬升，对ASP和利润率的拉动在Q4更明显。花旗预计Q3营业利润81.3万亿韩元、超市场共识约8%，保守机构因韩元贬值下调至75万亿左右。财报关键看两点：传统存储涨价能否在汇兑逆风下守住利润率，以及HBM4良率爬坡和三星、美光竞争是否压制定价。若花旗预测兑现，将验证上行周期韧性；若落在保守区间，市场焦点会迅速转向Q4 HBM4放量斜率。
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