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比特币日内反弹至7.85万美元附近,涨幅约0.7%,但恐惧贪婪指数仅34,仍深处恐惧区间,且此前现货ETF单日净流出6.43亿美元,反弹缺乏机构资金承接,更像技术性修复而非趋势反转。原油因美伊谈判推进而跳水,布伦特跌1.59%至111.62美元,WTI跌1.73%至102.32美元,表面是“和平定价”,实质是地缘风险溢价被动回吐。问题在于,美国最快11月4日中期选举后恢复对伊打击的威胁并未解除,油价随时可能脉冲式反弹、重新点燃通胀忧虑并压制降息预期。一个靠情绪勉强撑住的资产,叠加一个被乐观提前定价的地缘缓和,任何一条反向消息都足以触发比当前涨幅更剧烈的回撤。
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