诸葛投研✊
诸葛投研✊
17年进圈，9年web3老玩家，券商原持牌投顾。合约爆过仓，现在只玩主流币现货，向段永平看齐。
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The three main themes of the $OKB launch event have been confirmed: on-chain assets, AI automated trading strategies, and global digital finance.
As a result, the short positions on OKB that had been squeezed for half a month have finally dispersed in the past couple of days, with many shorts cutting losses and exiting.
The key point is that OKB's open interest is still rising, and the market sentiment has shifted from crowded shorts to long position building. It looks like a pump is about to happen.
The official even warned about the risk of "buying expectations and selling facts" to prevent excessive hype before the event.
Brothers with heavy $OKB positions really need to be cautious and try to reduce their holdings before the event to avoid a sharp drop if the event falls short of expectations.
+178.10%
Snapshot at Oct 03, 2026, 16:01
How do I explain my short position on $ZEC? I've held it for 2 days and experienced a 7% drop.
Let me explain again to avoid misleading anyone:
1. I usually trade spot and avoid contracts. Because in 2022, I lost several million due to a contract liquidation, which was very painful. I realized that even low leverage can lead to liquidation.
2. I only open low-leverage contracts with money I can afford to lose when I believe there's a high probability of a price drop. For example, I only used 3x leverage on ZEC.
3. Of course, I know that 10x or 50x leverage can earn more, but it can also lose a lot. The people in the screenshots are victims of high leverage on $BTC.
So why do I think $ZEC is likely to drop?
After breaking the support level, it didn’t have a decent rebound. The difference between a real break and a wick is this: a wick is recovered the next day, but a break means the price gets lower day by day.
Also, the old holders are exiting while new holders are entering. Whether the baton can be passed successfully will take time to verify.
That’s why I dare to open a small position with low leverage to short it.
+34.97%
Snapshot at Oct 03, 2026, 12:53
$BTC just exploded with 300 million in contracts yesterday, and today's leverage has piled back up 😂
Now the futures OI is not dropping but rising, already above 54 billion USD. Since there's more fuel, the spike movement probably won't end in the short term, and we still need to find opportunities to clear leverage again.
Currently, there's a huge whale sell wall around $BTC 91,000, and 82,000 is a cluster of long support; there's a story to tell both up and down.
The spot market is similar; although ETFs have flowed back, the quality is average: IBIT alone brought in nearly 200 million, but FBTC and ARKB have moved out nearly 100 million.
With thin volume during the holiday, don't chase the pulse that surged to 87,000; wait for trading volume to recover after the holiday to verify the quality.
+21.93%
Snapshot at Oct 03, 2026, 12:52
$ETH is now in a dense chip exchange zone: institutional funds from ETFs have been selling for three consecutive days, but long-term institutions are increasing their positions to support the price. Citibank even raised the target price to $4500.
Citibank's target price for $BTC is only 132,000, but for ETH it expects a 70% increase, indicating strong confidence.
Short-term channels are withdrawing while long-term research institutes are adding positions. In this split scenario, the price will only grind. Money is lining up at the door, just waiting for a reason to enter.
Before the ETF flows back, any rebound is just borrowed high volatility; take profits and run, don't get attached to the fight.
+24.97%
Snapshot at Oct 03, 2026, 12:03
Non-farm data released, $BTC sharply broke out of the consolidation range then fell back, with 24-hour liquidations exceeding 570 million at one point, cutting two groups of people at both ends.
The non-farm payrolls announced last night for September only added 29,000 jobs, far below the expected 90,000. Moreover, July and August were revised down by a total of 60,000, with July's data even turning negative.
When the data came out, the brothers in the group chat exploded, cursing and complaining that the US was faking data. But we have to admit, whether it's fake or not, the situation looks very good:
The 10-year US Treasury yield fell back to around 5.18, oil prices are also declining, giving risk assets a breathing window. The rate hike expectation has even shifted to December.
Controlling market expectations to control inflation is one of the Fed's jobs. Data fabrication is one of the strategies.
So the divergence in capital flows has intensified: BTC spot ETFs saw an inflow of $102.7 million on Thursday (IBIT alone nearly $200 million), ending outflows; $ETH ETFs have outflows for the third consecutive day, totaling over $110 million in three days—the narrative of BTC strong and ETH weak is deepening.
The SEC made two moves: a 760-page custody rule allowing institutions to self-custody crypto assets, and a joint statement with the CFTC clarifying that spot digital commodities can be traded on registered exchanges. Regulatory infrastructure is being added.
Liquidity is thin over the weekend, plus the National Day holiday, so the recovery rally is likely to be on low volume; don't mistake the rebound for a reversal.
+21.99%
Snapshot at Oct 03, 2026, 09:23
Today's non-farm payroll data looks like a fake, far below expectations.
But whether it's fake or not doesn't matter; what matters is that the US wants to use this signal to lower everyone's expectations of a rate hike. The difference is simply: fake means a subjective decision not to raise rates; not fake means an objective decision not to raise rates.
So interpreting this as no rate hike, which is positive for $BTC, is perfectly reasonable
+25.05%
Snapshot at Oct 02, 2026, 22:04
$XRP is indeed gathering strength. Its gains in the third quarter are the highest in four years, about 48%. Even $ETH didn't perform as well year-over-year. This week is just a breather caused by profit-taking.
Because the total holdings of the US spot XRP ETF have reached 1.16 billion tokens, with net inflows for 11 consecutive weeks. The support effect of this buying is very obvious.
Moreover, on-chain whales are also replenishing, with on-chain whales increasing their holdings by 470 million tokens last month.
Just waiting for the volume to break above 1.6 someday. After five days of sideways movement, the direction won't be far off. Hold your chips and wait for the wind to come.
+36.93%
Snapshot at Oct 02, 2026, 21:40
$HYPE is still strong, with a secret large order of $330 million quietly settled off-exchange, indicating that big institutions are secretly accumulating HYPE.
The settlement date is the 7th, with a total of 3.75 million tokens, not going through the public market, which means the buyer wants the chips, not to dump them.
Also, the regulatory cloud has partly cleared: the Congressional inquiry into prediction markets did not target the HYPE entity itself, and Lion Group has instead shifted its position to buying HYPE. This shows institutions are voting with their feet.
+35.72%
Snapshot at Oct 02, 2026, 19:02
$BTC has risen so much, why did $SOL just surge briefly and then fall back? Clearly, its fundamentals are also very strong!
1. SOL's monthly ledger is solid: September's ecosystem revenue was about $180 million, and the SOL-focused ETF attracted $272 million throughout September, setting a quarterly record.
Both fundamentals and capital are adding up, yet the price has been stuck around 120 for half a month, and just after breaking through for an hour, it feels like it's about to fall back.
This is because the capital hasn't rotated in yet, and there's a liquidation cluster right below.
There are a lot of longs stacked at 116; if it pulls up slightly, many will take profits, so small funds simply can't push it up.
But large funds definitely prioritize flowing into BTC and $ETH first; it's not yet time for SOL inflows, so SOL's price is hovering around 120 now.
No need to worry, once BTC and ETH stagnate, it will be SOL's time to perform.
+66.94%
Snapshot at Oct 02, 2026, 12:15
The old $ETH whales are still cashing out, and this rebound's height is being suppressed by them:
Since last week, many ETH whales have been selling off, and in the past two days, it has intensified, with even ICO whales doing clearance-style sell-offs.
According to Lookonchain on-chain data, in just two days, they sold 19,000 coins, equivalent to about $47 million.
Fortunately, contracts are taking over: on 10/1, a single transfer of 200,000 coins, about $850 million worth of ETH, was moved into Deribit. Not sure if it's hedging or genuine optimism.
In a volatile market, hold spot assets and avoid high leverage.
+26.55%
Snapshot at Oct 02, 2026, 11:50