TraderS | 缺德道人
TraderS | 缺德道人
宏观 × 美股 × Crypto 交易员 拆解美联储、战争与全球资金流 提前捕捉 美股 / 原油 / BTC / 金银 / 风险资产拐点 和读者一起看金融风暴 🌪 推特同名TraderS | 缺德道人，账号TraderS18
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The PPI data will be released again tonight at 9:30. In this market, sensitive and turbulent autumn, even slightly worse data could be the last straw.
Intuitively, the poor CPI data on Tuesday might suggest that tonight's PPI won't be great either. But actually, a hot CPI doesn't directly equate to a hot PPI, as their statistical scopes differ.
However, what currently impacts the market is still the rebalancing of various factions after Trump's election loss weakened his power control.
At present, market expectations, especially the overall month-on-month compared to previous values, have dropped significantly. After the data is released, news headlines might look better, but the key is whether it's better than expected.
Let's wait. This time, if we can't guess, we won't guess. The market is not suitable for gambling at this stage. Besides the PPI, there will also be Federal Reserve officials' speeches and randomly updated uncertain events. In a volatile market, good risk control and taking profits when appropriate are very necessary. A trending market may still take another month or two to arrive.
Today, the news about Huang Renxun's third extramarital affair hasn't really escalated, but Bitcoin just dropped below 68k, Ethereum fell below 1900, market sentiment remains poor, and liquidity hasn't improved. It's said that Nvidia employees have already started a joint petition asking Old Huang to return and be given another chance.
Although Old Huang is Chinese and his situation might not be replicable, how could those around Trump not feel threatened?
Today, they managed to take down the weakest link, Huang Renxun. After this success, their appetite might grow to target Musk, Hegseth, Pence, and eventually Trump himself. So where is the bottom line for Trump's team? Will they just let this happen? $NVDA #英伟达宣布黄仁勋辞去CEO职务
Damn, Chuan, are you serious? Are you really going to replace Cook? Gay definitely won't make gender mistakes... Colorful graphics cards are probably going to sell like crazy🌚$NVDA #英伟达宣布黄仁勋辞去CEO职务
Overall, Elon Musk is harder to deal with than Huang. When Musk was handling DOGE, he gathered a lot of dirt, basically like a "Record of Officials," so messing with him comes at a high cost and they might not necessarily go after him. Besides, Musk is white and originally jumped from the Democratic Party to the opposition, so he's someone who can be courted. As long as the deal is good, it's not impossible for him to jump back to the Democratic Party after Trump leaves office. After all, he's young and anything is possible $SPCX $TSLA
It seems that the current market is somewhat about contributing to Anthropic's IPO. Nvidia, along with a bunch of AI followers, is dropping to release funds, and gold, silver, Bitcoin, and Ethereum are also contributing as gifts.
A÷ is truly A÷, increasing account bans to scam retail investors' money while also plundering the funds of big players. It seems the investors behind the scenes are eager to cash out by going public and securing their profits, $ANTHROPIC #AnthropicIPO进展：获数倍超额认购，估值或上调
To be honest, this is already the best solution under the circumstance that it’s impossible to keep Huang.
The board definitely doesn’t want to let Huang go, as it would be a huge loss to their interests.
But the situation is stronger than people; after all, Trump lost, and the reckoning has just begun. Who knows what surprises might come next.
These people have a clear goal: to get rid of Huang. If Huang isn’t enough, they add female subordinates; if that still doesn’t work this time, they’ll keep escalating. If Huang can’t hold on, even if he tries, a lot more explosive information will come out.
Having been a helmsman for decades, leading the world’s largest market cap and most advanced technology company, he’s inevitably targeted by countless people. Without top-level protection, he’s just fish on the menu.
Retiring bravely while still useful might allow him to make a comeback in the future, but that probably depends on the next presidential election when the president again controls all three branches. $NVDA #英伟达宣布黄仁勋辞去CEO职务
TraderS | 缺德道人
Unable to retain Jensen Huang, Nvidia's board chose the second-best solution, which is Plan Two
2. Orderly transition: the proxy and a heavyweight name announced simultaneously. Target price $145–160, a close gain on the day is not ruled out. $NVDA #美媒曝英伟达拟罢免黄仁勋，股价盘后跌超9%
Unable to retain Jensen Huang, Nvidia's board chose the second-best solution, which is Plan Two
2. Orderly transition: the proxy and a heavyweight name announced simultaneously. Target price $145–160, a close gain on the day is not ruled out. $NVDA #美媒曝英伟达拟罢免黄仁勋，股价盘后跌超9%
TraderS | 缺德道人
Everyone is watching the drama unfold, but the most interested question is definitely when to bottom-fish Nvidia.
This mainly depends on whether he will step down and the handover situation afterward. The short-term decline has already gone quite far, basically pricing in emotional panic and the imminent loss of Nvidia's soul founder.
According to Polymarket information, the probability of Jensen Huang stepping down is over 80%.
We can divide the future into four scenarios:
1. Jensen Huang is retained and does not step down, then the stock price will likely rebound sharply above 170.
2. An orderly handover: an acting leader and a significant name are announced simultaneously. The price range would be $145–160, with a chance of closing higher that day.
3. Only an acting leader is appointed, with a statement "initiating selection": $135–150.
4. Chaos: no decent acting leader or additional investigations follow. $120–135.
From the perspective of chip support, the next major daily support is near 100, which is too far away and would require a long time plus many black swan events to reach. The next weekly support is around 111–118, which matches the worst-case scenario if Huang steps down and can be considered a safety zone. So, friends eager to bottom-fish now can set their liquidation price below 110–120 and then count their money when the situation improves. Those not in a hurry can watch and wait for better opportunities. $NVDA #美媒曝英伟达拟罢免黄仁勋，股价盘后跌超9%
Everyone is watching the drama unfold, but the most interested question is definitely when to bottom-fish Nvidia.
This mainly depends on whether he will step down and the handover situation afterward. The short-term decline has already gone quite far, basically pricing in emotional panic and the imminent loss of Nvidia's soul founder.
According to Polymarket information, the probability of Jensen Huang stepping down is over 80%.
We can divide the future into four scenarios:
1. Jensen Huang is retained and does not step down, then the stock price will likely rebound sharply above 170.
2. An orderly handover: an acting leader and a significant name are announced simultaneously. The price range would be $145–160, with a chance of closing higher that day.
3. Only an acting leader is appointed, with a statement "initiating selection": $135–150.
4. Chaos: no decent acting leader or additional investigations follow. $120–135.
From the perspective of chip support, the next major daily support is near 100, which is too far away and would require a long time plus many black swan events to reach. The next weekly support is around 111–118, which matches the worst-case scenario if Huang steps down and can be considered a safety zone. So, friends eager to bottom-fish now can set their liquidation price below 110–120 and then count their money when the situation improves. Those not in a hurry can watch and wait for better opportunities. $NVDA #美媒曝英伟达拟罢免黄仁勋，股价盘后跌超9%
