OKX Macro Pulse
OKX Macro Pulse
聚焦全球宏观经济、政策动态及市场热点，持续关注可能影响加密市场的重要事件。
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Official U.S. data shows that the PPI rose 0.3% month-over-month in October, below the market expectation of 0.4%, and significantly down from the 1.3% increase in September. The core PPI, excluding food and energy, also rose 0.3% month-over-month, in line with expectations, and narrowed sharply from the previous 0.7%. Both indicators cooled down, and the overall and core PPI month-over-month rates have returned to the same level, indicating that the price pressure seen in September did not continue. Historically, the month-over-month PPI from June to September this year was -0.3%, 0%, 0.4%, and 1.3%, showing a monthly upward trend, which was halted by the October data. The easing of price pressure on the production side contrasts with the rising inflation concerns during corporate earnings calls in the same period: according to financial media reports, inflation was mentioned 820 times in S&P 500 company earnings calls in October, a monthly high since February 2024, mainly due to oil prices pushing up costs for fuel, fertilizer, and resin. The divergence between wholesale price data and corporate cost concerns means that further data is needed to verify the subsequent consumer price trends and the Federal Reserve's assessment of the inflation path.
The US October nonfarm payroll data was comprehensively better than expected. The private sector added 159,000 jobs, far exceeding the market expectation of 64,000, with the previous value revised up from 46,000. Overall nonfarm payrolls increased by 165,000, also significantly higher than the expected 65,000, with the previous value revised up from 29,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, below the expected 4.2%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous 4.2%. Wage growth also strengthened, with average hourly earnings rising 3.1% year-on-year, higher than the expected 2.9%, and accelerating further from the previous 3%. This report shows a pattern of multiple employment market indicators improving simultaneously: the number of new jobs far exceeded expectations and the data for the previous two months were revised upward, indicating that the actual strength of labor demand was previously underestimated; the unemployment rate declined against expectations, showing that the labor market has not cooled as quickly as the market had feared. The acceleration in wage growth combined with the rebound in employment points to continued solid support for household income, providing a foundation for consumer spending. Regarding the monetary policy path, the simultaneous strengthening of employment and wage data means the labor market does not yet present an urgent reason to push for further easing. #NonfarmRevealedTonight, how will the market bet on December rate hikes after the US stock market plunge?
