After checking Hayes' wallet, I found out he had already bought in a month ago.
This morning, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes shouted a signal again:
ENA will see $0.5.
The market immediately went crazy.
ENA surged straight from $0.17 to $0.21, with a daily increase of over 24%.
Retail investors rushed in, group chats flooded, FOMO maxed out.
And then?
I casually checked his address.
He had already laid out his base position a month ago.
According to Arkham on-chain tracking, Hayes' associated wallet accumulated 25.33 million ENA at an average price of about $0.09, spending approximately $5.53 million in total.
At today's price of $0.21, the unrealized profit on this position has reached $3.28 million.
The paper return rate—146%.
He bought at $0.09. Then at $0.21, he tells you it will rise to $0.5.
What you see is “$0.5 still has 138% upside.”
What he sees is the base position that has already earned 146% from $0.09 to $0.21, finally someone is taking over.
This is not shouting a signal. This is looking for a bag holder.
A whale who built a position at $0.09 doesn’t need to wait until $0.5 to make money.
He sells some at $0.25, some at $0.30, and has long recovered his cost. The remaining chips are all profit positions.
Retail investors think they are following the trend. In fact, they are providing liquidity for him.
When a hedge fund operator holding tens of millions of low-priced chips starts selling retail investors a far-future windfall expectation, it often means he is looking for an exit channel for huge unrealized profits.
And note—after he shouted, ENA quickly dropped.
You think the story ends here?
If you only see “shouting signal to dump,” you will miss more important things.
First, there is a ticking bomb on October 5.
The Ethena Foundation previously announced that all remaining original investors’ locked shares will be released in one lump sum on October 5, 2026.
Among them, StablecoinX alone holds about 3.03 billion ENA—equivalent to 20% of the total supply.
StablecoinX says “no intention to sell.” But legally, these tokens can be freely transferred after October 5.
The supply-side vacuum period may only appear after mid-October.
Before that, any price surge may be a golden window for early investors to exit.
Second, Ethena is indeed changing.
The proposal to buy back 95% of net income with ENA passed unanimously with 14.1 million votes in favor and zero against. If this mechanism works, ENA’s pricing logic will shift from “air governance” to real cash flow discounting.
But note—the engine of this machine is contract funding rates.
Once the market turns bearish and funding rates turn negative, the protocol not only won’t earn basis income but will have to subsidize hedge positions. The buyback amount will plummet, and the flywheel will stall.
Hayes’ $0.5 target price is not a pie in the sky.
It is his own exit roadmap.
His cost is $0.09. Your cost is $0.21 or even higher.
He can sell in batches at $0.3, $0.4, and walk away clean.
You chase in at $0.21, waiting for the day $0.5 is realized.
Keep an eye on his address.
Don’t listen to what he says, watch what his wallet does.
Every transfer out after a signal is a hundred times more real than his tweets.
When someone spends a month building a base position at $0.09, then tells you to meet at $0.5—
Guess if he’s helping you or helping himself?
$BTC$ETH$ENA
Disclaimer: OKX Orbit content is provided for informational purposes only. Learn more
