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峰哥的交易日记
峰哥的交易日记
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1.01美元的SUI,你敢追吗? 先看表面:24小时涨5-10%,7天涨30-47%,一个月涨25-30%,成交额爆到20亿美金。日线突破下降楔形,站上所有均线,1.00心理关口被踩在脚下。突破确认,目标1.25-1.38。 但TVL从26亿崩到5.37亿,跌了80%。Phantom钱包9月24日下架SUI。10月初解锁2300万枚代币。 第一件事:Basecamp是解药,还是狗庄的出货道具? 10月7-8日,新加坡,Sui Basecamp 2026。Mysten Labs CPO亲自预热,要发布“重大金融产品”——智能体金融、支付、即时结算、隐私交易。 但你看清楚时间线: 9月24日:Phantom下架SUI(利空) 10月1-3日:2300万枚解锁(利空) 10月7-8日:Basecamp大会(利好) 利空在前,利好在后。你猜狗庄是先砸盘吸筹,还是先拉高等利好出货? 第二件事:TVL崩了80%,这才是最扎心的 2025年10月,SUI的TVL还有26亿美金。现在,5.37亿。 这不是腰斩,这是脚踝斩。 有人说“TVL是滞后指标”——对,但滞后这么久、跌这么狠,说明什么?说明上一波冲着生态来的资金,已经跑光了。 更扎心的是SUI市值42亿,TVL只有5.37亿。涨的全是情绪,不是价值。 第三件事:技术面超买,追高就是送人头 短周期RSI 70-86,日线RSI 57-76——超买信号拉满 布林带上轨被突破,回归需求强烈 MACD动能强劲但开始走平——上涨动能正在衰竭 1.01这个位置,性价比极差。 多空对决,你自己看 一边是: Basecamp大会10月7-8日,重大产品预期 突破下降楔形,技术面转多 BTC突破8.5万,山寨季轮动启动 21Shares等ETF提供机构通道叙事 成交额20亿,资金参与度爆棚 一边是: TVL从26亿崩到5.37亿,链上真实需求萎缩 Phantom 9月24日下架SUI,入口减少 10月初2300万枚解锁,抛压就在眼前 RSI超买,短期追高风险极大 距ATH 5.35跌了81%,上方全是套牢盘 上方阻力:1.05-1.08 → 1.10 → 1.16 → 1.38-1.40 下方支撑:0.97-0.99 → 0.91 → 0.86-0.82 → 0.77(楔形突破确认区) 操作策略 短线选手: 等回踩0.95-0.97,出现长下影或放量阳线再轻仓进,止损0.91。目标1.08先出一半,站稳1.08加仓看1.15-1.20。 波段玩家: 等日线站稳1.05-1.08再上车,目标1.25-1.38,止损0.97。但记住——Basecamp利好落地前,必须减仓。 长线信仰者: 0.85以下再考虑定投。SUI的基本面需要时间验证,TVL不回来,价格就是空中楼阁。赌的是Basecamp后生态真正起量,不是赌一根阳线。 SUI现在就像2024年初的SOL—— 所有人都在喊“要重回巅峰”,但真正涨回去的,是那些在底部默默建仓的人,不是追高的人。 1.01这个位置,你不是在抄底—— 你是在赌狗庄的良心。 而狗庄,从来没有良心。 1.01这个位置,你敢追还是等回踩? $BTC $SOL $SUI
峰哥的交易日记
峰哥的交易日记
Bitcoin just broke through $87,000, an 8-month high. But have you noticed—the biggest gainers are all a bunch of "useless" stuff. PEPE up 32%, DOGE up 18%, WIF up 27%, BONK up 16%, SHIB up 12%. The old Meme board is flying. Who exactly is buying? Where is the money coming from? Can you chase it? Five numbers, three minutes, to explain today's situation thoroughly. ① 32% PEPE's 24-hour increase, leading the top 100 coins. Daily trading volume exceeds $1 billion, market cap back above $2 billion, weekly increase surpasses 40%. This isn't PEPE's first time as the Meme leader. But this time there's a detail: on-chain data shows addresses holding over $1 million in PEPE increased by 12 in the past week, and net outflows from exchanges are expanding—whales are accumulating. Meanwhile, small addresses decreased by over 3,000. Whales are buying, retail investors are running. ② 18% DOGE's increase. But more worth noting is the whales' positions. On-chain data shows that in the past week, whales cumulatively increased holdings by over 240 million DOGE, raising their holdings from 18.6 billion to about 18.84 billion. One whale even used maximum leverage to go long on BTC, DOGE, PEPE, and FARTCOIN, with unrealized profits exceeding $9 million, setting take-profit prices for DOGE between $0.35 and $0.7. This isn't retail gambling; it's whales positioning. ③ 919 million Total short liquidation amount across the network in the past 24 hours—shorts accounted for 919 million, total liquidation $1.09 billion, about 140,000 traders liquidated, short liquidations surged 248% from the previous day. Meme tokens are the biggest beneficiaries of the short squeeze. Bitcoin first forced shorts to cover, pushing to $87,000, shorts got blown out, funds overflowed into high-beta Meme sectors. The "surge" you see is essentially a pile of short squeeze casualties. ④ 78 Fear and Greed Index. Yesterday 70, today jumped directly to 78—from "Greed" to "Extreme Greed." Sentiment is overheated. But note: this number jumped from 70, not climbed slowly from 50. An 8-point jump in one day means sentiment is accelerating. Extreme greed doesn't mean an immediate crash but indicates the margin for error is rapidly shrinking. ⑤ Convergence The most critical number. When the Meme group broadly rose in August: WIF up 36%, BONK up 36%, SHIB up 24%. This time? WIF dropped from 36% to 27%, BONK from 36% to 16%, SHIB from 24% to 12%. Each rise is less than the last, yet every time someone shouts "Meme season is here." A more painful detail: WIF rose 27% this time, outperforming DOGE and BONK. The Solana-based Meme tokens are starting to diverge internally. Funds are not broadly distributed but concentrated in PEPE and a few highly recognizable old coins. This is not a broad rally; it's a rotation within the sector. 💡 In one sentence summary: BTC short squeeze → short stampede → funds overflow to Meme. But the slope is weaker each time, with insufficient evidence of new liquidity. On-chain data is already diverging: PEPE whales are accumulating, WIF whales are distributing, retail investors are taking the bags. The money fueling the Meme riot isn't new; it's taken from other pockets. You can chase, but don't get carried away. $BTC $DOGE $PEPE #BTC冲高$87000,加密总市值重返3万亿

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