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渣打银行，2026年下半年，7份研报，7个标的。全涨了。 6月16日，首次覆盖UNI，目标价6.50美元。现在8.85美元，涨了210%，超额兑现。 6月23日，首次覆盖AAVE，目标价3500美元（2030年）。研报发布时70美元，现在160美元，涨了122%。 7月1日，首次覆盖Morpho，涨34%。 8月10日，首次覆盖LINK，涨74%。 9月11日，首次覆盖SKY，涨38%。 9月16日，首次覆盖ARB，涨34%。 9月30日，首次覆盖ENA，给出2028年2美元目标价。七连击，零失误。你可能会说：“渣打喊单，市场抬轿，FOMO而已。” 错了。渣打不是发了七篇研报然后撞大运。他们用的是一套框架。同样的框架选了七个标的，七个都涨了。今天我把这套框架拆开给你看。你自己去找下一个。 🧊 渣打的估值逻辑，就三句话。我把渣打数字资产研究主管Geoff Kendrick的报告翻来覆去看了一遍，核心筛选标准可以浓缩成三条：第一条：收入要真。不是“TVL很高”、“生态很大”、“路线图很性感”——是协议本身有没有真实的借贷、交易、清算收入。渣打覆盖AAVE的时候，核心论据不是“DeFi借贷龙头”这种标签，而是——Aave收入模式与借贷活动和存款高度相关，协议增长将较直接地转化为AAVE代币上涨。翻译一下：存款多、贷款多、利息收入多，代币才值钱。不是靠叙事，是靠现金流。现在AAVE的数据是什么水平？存款339亿美元，贷款132亿美元，TVL 206亿美元。过去30天存款增长约9%，借贷增长约5%。真实存款→真实贷款→真实利息→真实收入。这条链条是通的。第二条：回购要狠。有收入是一回事。收入能不能回到代币持有者手里，是另一回事。渣打覆盖的所有标的，几乎都有“费用开关”或“回购计划”。 UNI在2025年12月激活费用开关后，协议日均收入从11.8万美元飙升至32.5万美元，全部流入TokenJar合约，只有一个出口：买UNI，然后永久销毁。渣打给ENA的目标价2美元，核心论据就是回购机制。ENA治理层批准了费用开关：USDe供应达到特定门槛后，将各业务线净收入的95%用于回购ENA。按渣打测算，若USDe供应达到400亿美元，ENA年回购规模相当于流通市值的约23%。而UNI当前的回购比例稳定在3%到4%。渣打说这是“健康区间”。 23%意味着什么？意味着当前价格下，回购的钱根本买不够。价格必须涨，直到回购比例回落到可维持的水平。这就是缺口。这就是上涨空间。第三条：稳定币/RWA要沾边。渣打覆盖的每一个标的，都直接或间接绑在稳定币市场从3000亿到2万亿美元的扩张上。 Ethena的USDe，是继Tether、Circle和Sky之后的第四大稳定币发行方。 Sky的USDS，2025年供应量增长74%至92亿美元，2026年预计再增长124%至206亿美元。 AAVE正在从借贷协议变成链上信用层——不同资产可以借用同一套流动性基础设施。 Chainlink则是代币化浪潮的数据基础设施——代币化股票、RWA、DeFi借贷，全都需要预言机。渣打的逻辑很清晰：稳定币和RWA市场在扩大，谁在给这个市场提供基础设施、谁在给这个市场提供流动性——谁就能吃到最大的红利。 🎯 三条主线，你该怎么用？左侧布局：在渣打发报告之前。渣打的报告有催化剂效应。UNI在报告发布后单日涨超20%，AAVE最高涨超10%。等报告出来再追，你吃的是鱼尾巴。怎么提前找？沿着三条主线筛。筛“真收入”：去DefiLlama或Token Terminal，看协议的月收入、费用、P/E。不是看TVL，是看真实收入。筛“真回购”：查协议有没有“费用开关”或回购计划，算一下年化回购额占流通市值的比例。3%-4%是健康，10%以上是严重低估，20%以上是极度低估——这就是渣打找ENA的逻辑。筛“RWA敞口”：协议是不是直接受益于稳定币/RWA扩张？Ethena、Sky是直接标的。AAVE、Morpho是间接受益——它们给代币化资产提供借贷场所。右侧确认：报告发布后回调再介入。渣打的目标价是“2030年远期锚”，短期波动难免。UNI研报发布后先涨20%，然后回落，在2.3美元横盘了两个月才真正起飞。别在FOMO里接盘。等回调，等叙事冷却，等真正动手的人买完。风险控制：叙事驱动的拉升，不等于基本面立刻改善。有个很扎心的案例。Jupiter将50%的平台收入用于JUP回购，一年花了7000多万美元——JUP价格跌了89%。有回购，不等于币价一定涨。回购只是必要条件，不是充分条件。还需要收入持续增长、代币供应结构健康、市场流动性配合。渣打的报告之所以能兑现，是因为它选的标的同时满足真实收入+激进回购+稳定币/RWA敞口。三个条件缺一个，效果都可能大打折扣。 $AAVE $UNI $ENA

On the evening of September 30, the US August core PCE data was released — year-on-year 3.0%, lower than the expected 3.3%, hitting a six-month low. Inflation data is better than expected. How did Bitcoin react? It first surged to $85,000, then quickly fell back. After the PCE release, the probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in October is 52.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike is 47.1%. Good news came, but the money didn’t flow in. This is the real topic worth discussing today. 🔥 First, let’s look at the positive side, which is indeed tempting. First, inflation finally shows signs of cooling. Core PCE at 3.0%, a six-month low. The market originally expected 3.3%, but the actual figure was much lower. Second, October is historically the strongest month for Bitcoin. From 2013 to 2025, Bitcoin rose in 10 out of 13 Octobers, with an average return of 19.92% and a median of 14.71%. This is where the name “Uptober” comes from. Third, the price has already risen from the bottom. BTC was around $58,000 in summer, and in September it once surged to $87,400, an eight-month high. Fourth, ETF funds once flowed back. From September 21 to 25, the US spot Bitcoin ETF net inflow was $2.386 billion, setting the highest single-week record of 2026 and the strongest week since October 2025. With all these positives combined, Uptober looks solid. 🧊 But don’t forget what happened last year. In early October 2025, Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $126,080. Everyone was shouting “Uptober is here.” Then on October 10, Trump announced a 100% tariff on China. Bitcoin crashed within hours. Over $19 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated — the largest liquidation event in crypto history. That October turned from “Uptober” into “Rektober” (Rekt meaning liquidated/destroyed). Historically, October’s average return is 19.92%, but last year it was a loss. The average is not a guarantee. 🎯 Now the most critical issue: there isn’t enough money. CryptoQuant said bluntly in its latest weekly report: Bitcoin’s upward momentum is weakening. Here’s the data: Profit-taking is soaring. On September 22, Bitcoin holders realized profits of 25,700 BTC, a single-day high in 2026. Short-term traders’ unrealized profit rate rose to 33%, the highest since December 2024. CryptoQuant pointed out that similar levels of profit-taking usually appear near short-term peaks after rapid rises. Demand is shrinking. In the last 30 days, estimated spot Bitcoin demand dropped to -170,000 BTC, continuing the contraction trend. Speculative futures demand plunged from 164,000 BTC on September 14 to 16,000 BTC. Altcoins are also preparing to sell. Transactions transferring altcoins into exchanges reached 76,000, and the number of addresses transferring into exchanges was 51,000, both the highest since October 2025. In plain terms: the price rose too fast, and holders are starting to want out. New money isn’t coming in; old money is flowing out. 🔍 A more painful detail: how much of that $2.386 billion inflow is real? Last week’s ETF inflow hit an annual high of $2.386 billion. Sounds like a lot. But looking closer, there’s a big problem. BlackRock’s IBIT had a weekly inflow of $1.158 billion, Fidelity’s FBTC $702 million, together accounting for nearly 78%. Meanwhile, Grayscale’s GBTC had a net outflow of $254.7 million. What does this mean? A significant portion of money was redeemed from the high-fee GBTC and then used to buy the low-fee IBIT. They bought the same underlying Bitcoin. The net contribution to demand is close to zero. River’s data is more direct: that week, ETFs only bought about 18,000 Bitcoin, below their monthly average since inception. Price rises came more from reduced supply than new buyers entering. ETF inflows look lively, but real new money isn’t that much. ⚔️ Macro environment: US Treasury yields are still rising. At the same time as the PCE data release, the 10-year US Treasury yield rose from a low of 5.20% to about 5.28%. The US dollar index rose 1.9% in September, hitting a two-month high. Stronger dollar + rising Treasury yields = headwinds for risk assets. Higher risk-free returns reduce the relative appeal of non-cash-flow assets like Bitcoin. Although PCE was below expectations, core inflation remains at 3%, and overall inflation is 3.4%, still above the Fed’s 2% target. The certainty of rate cuts is weakened by this “good data.” / To be honest October’s historical return of 19.92% is indeed tempting. But the other side of “Uptober” is that October is also a month of significantly increased volatility. Last October was the best example: all-time highs + everyone bullish + then $19 billion wiped out. Nexo’s analyst said it right: “Uptober has potential but no guarantees. If seasonality is confirmed by macroeconomics, the rally continues. If macro doesn’t cooperate, seasonal tailwinds turn into headwinds.” BTC is on track for its best quarterly performance since Q4 2024, that’s true. But the key to the next directional move isn’t inflation data. It’s whether ETF funds can accelerate inflows again. Whether spot demand can stop shrinking. Inflation good news gave the market a matchstick. The matchstick is lit. The question is, is there enough firewood. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高