投机实验室
投机实验室
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我要验牌。
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Baird cut Nvidia's target price from 500 to 200, mentioning Megaspeed in the downgrade report, and said that 10% to 30% of orders in the channel might be cut early 😮💨
Analyst Tristan Gerra means that after the congressional hearing, it's unclear how the government will act, so the rating was downgraded from outperform to neutral.
He wrote two possible outcomes.
One is that the US bans selling H200 to China again.
The other is that export controls block Southeast Asian data centers, the Department of Justice takes action against Megaspeed, and data centers in this region with Chinese demand either cut orders themselves or are forced to cut.
Megaspeed is the Singapore company once managed by Huang Le, which bought $4.8 billion worth of Nvidia chips in two years.
Yesterday I checked the Federal Register; the Commerce Department hasn't added any company to the entity list in 13 months, and there is no document on Megaspeed, still zero today.
Baird also mentioned Huang Le himself; it's uncertain if he can continue until 2027.
Nvidia's earnings report is on the 17th, and on the 18th the House will hold a closed-door briefing with Huang Le.
Trump is going to Shenzhen next week for APEC without Huang. On the 18th, Congress has scheduled a closed-door session with Huang in Washington to discuss the Huang Le matter 🧐
On Sunday, when reporters asked if he would bring Huang, Trump said: "I don't know, but I will definitely bring him." By Tuesday, the New York Times reported that he wouldn't be bringing him this time.
During the May trip to Beijing, Huang wasn't originally on the list either. Trump personally called him after seeing the news, and Huang flew to Alaska on his own to board Air Force One.
The New York Times' scoop this time is about that trip: Rubio told Trump about Huang Le's intelligence on Air Force One en route to China.
On Monday, when asked at a press conference, Trump replied: "I hadn't heard about it at that time."
On the Congress side, the chairmen of the House China Committee, Foreign Affairs Committee, and Intelligence Committee jointly wrote a letter inviting Huang for a closed-door briefing on the 18th, asking for a response by the 11th, which is today.
NVIDIA reports earnings on the 17th, Congress summons him on the 18th, and Trump is in Shenzhen the same day.
Today is the deadline, and the chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee said on Tuesday that he couldn't say whether Huang has replied or not..
How to talk about the claim that weight loss injections cause blindness?
On the same day the FDA said weight loss injections might harm the eyes, Eli Lilly's stock closed up 4.3%, showing the market clearly didn't take this warning seriously 😂
On November 9, the FDA required all GLP-1 class drugs—including semaglutide, tirzepatide, and Eli Lilly's newly approved weight loss pills this year—to update their labels to include a risk of the rare eye disease NAION, which in severe cases can cause permanent vision loss in one eye.
On the same day, Eli Lilly issued a press release reporting that in a Phase 3 trial of their weight loss pill Foundayo, occurrences of sleep apnea dropped by over 40%, and they plan to apply to the FDA for this new indication before the end of the year.
Novo Nordisk's stock also rose 2.7% that day.
The FDA's warning added to the drug labels is not the highest-level black box warning.
I translated the FDA's original announcement: according to FDA data, among 78,000 people who received injections, only 10 cases were identified, based on a summary of 126 clinical trials.
The European Medicines Agency included this disease in the semaglutide label last June, marking it as very rare—at most one in ten thousand.
The FDA's advice for injection users is that if you have had this disease before, consult your doctor about whether to continue the injections.
Just over 20 years old and already this impressive!! JJ Simon, a finance guy from the University of Washington, used $5,000 won from playing poker to trade, and in just over a year made more than $1.8 million, equivalent to over 10 million RMB. I've exposed his strategy!!
American trader JJ Simon, just in his early twenties, has earned over 1.8 million USD, equivalent to more than 12 million RMB, all within just over a year. According to him, this money is all profit sharing from his proprietary trading firm. He started with only 5,000 USD, which he won playing poker while in college. He made a lot of money, but also spent a lot. Just on paying for assessments to get accounts, he spent over 500,000 USD, and the risks remain high. He graduated from the University of Washington in 2025, majoring in computational finance, and was an honors graduate. He says that his trading is based on what he learned in college, so he is professionally trained. Simply put, he mechanically applies that knowledge to the K-line charts. The only instrument he trades is Nasdaq futures, and he only looks at the one-minute chart, with no indicators on the chart. The one-minute chart moves very fast, so he doesn't need those. When to enter, how much profit to take, and how much loss to cut are all fixed. His trading logic is: after a large wave of buy and sell orders pushes the price out, it will sooner or later return to a fair price. For example, at 9:30 AM New York time when the market opens, overnight orders and large institutional orders flood in together, and the price often overshoots on the first move. He calls the price at the moment of the open the "fair price," meaning the fair value. The farther the price overshoots, the more profit can be made by trading back toward it. So for each time period, his approach is: first set the fair price, make a trade in the direction of the open, then wait for signals to trade back toward the fair price. First, how to set the fair price. On normal days, he uses the 9:30 AM opening price. He
Last week everyone was mocking Korean retail investors, but last night they won, no need to go to the rooftop.
They dumped $1.6 billion into bottom-fishing SOXL over the week, and last night it surged 22%🤑
SOXL is a triple-leveraged ETF for semiconductor stocks. Last Thursday it dropped nearly 40% in one day, and that was exactly when Korean retail investors jumped in. Last night, FIH (fee half) rose nearly 7%, and SOXL closed at $56. Counting from last Thursday's close, it has gained back nearly 40% in two days.
This morning, the Korean stock market also opened sharply higher, with KOSPI up 4.5% at the open.
But this rally only saved those who bottom-fished last week.
In mid-October, Korean retail investors poured over $2.5 billion into SOXL. That week, SOXL fluctuated between the 90s and 130s. Based on last night's close, those who bought that week are still down 40% to nearly 60%.
From the early October level of over 150, SOXL needs to rise another 170% to break even..
Among the 30 stocks in the US chip ETF, 29 rose tonight, with only Nvidia falling 😂
The biggest gainer was Astera Labs, up 12%, and AMD rose 9%.
Nvidia dropped more than 4%, losing nearly $200 billion in market value overnight, while AMD gained almost $70 billion.
The Nasdaq also rose 2.7%. It seems the money hasn't left the chip sector, just shifted from Nvidia to others.
On the first day of the short-selling restriction, the Taiwan stock market rose nearly 5%, while foreign investors directly sold 90 billion TWD 😂
Last April, when the same short-selling restriction was implemented, the Taiwan stock market dropped nearly 10% on the first day, and foreign investors even bought 16.8 billion that day.
I just checked the three major institutional investors data released by the Taiwan Stock Exchange; today, only local Taiwanese funds had net purchases of 26.7 billion, while proprietary trading desks of brokerages were selling, with the three combined having a net sale of 94.5 billion.
The short-selling restriction controls borrowed stocks, cutting the quota for short-selling on borrowed shares by 90%, and raising the margin requirement for short sales to 130%. Foreign investors selling their own stocks, which do not require borrowing, are not affected.
Including last week, foreign investors have sold over 610 billion in the Taiwan stock market over 6 trading days.
The 94.5 billion worth of stocks sold were all picked up by retail investors and money outside the three major institutional investors.
Do you dare to chase this bullish candlestick? 🥲
The name Huang Le was written in a report shorting Nvidia half a year ago, item 9. That post has been viewed by nearly 1 million people now, and Nvidia's stock rose 4% the next day 😂
In the early morning of May 14, the short-selling firm Culper posted 17 tweets on X, saying Nvidia's business with China has not disappeared at all; more than 20% of its computing power revenue still comes from China, routed through intermediaries in Southeast Asia.
Item 3 says Nvidia gave Megaspeed a guarantee, stating there are no Chinese shareholders and no transshipment. Documents uncovered by Culper show that Megaspeed's funds come from Alibaba through a Singapore shell company.
Item 4 shows Megaspeed's accounts, with assets growing from $33 million to $3 billion in one year.
Item 9 points to Huang Le: Old Huang and her threw a party together in June 2024, and in May 2025, right after the US tightened export controls, the two had dinner together again.
Item 10 is more detailed; Megaspeed employees say that every time Old Huang visits them, people from Alibaba come along.
The night before the report was released, Old Huang boarded Air Force One in Alaska and went to Beijing with Trump.
Half a year later, Nvidia's board launched an independent investigation on its own..
