陈桂林谈交易
陈桂林谈交易
X账号名称：陈桂林
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Bitcoin $BTC has had 6 consecutive weekly declines.
I think it's normal for the crypto market to have a correction after this round of gains, but if the depth and duration exceed expectations, that's just pure bad luck and misfortune.
Looking back at the market, after storage peaked and entered an adjustment cycle, the crypto market happened to be at a cost-effective and attractive position for capital. The previous 5 waves were very strong and fierce. When the first correction came, the bulls defended firmly, basically not letting you get on board; then under these circumstances, the oil price, which had been suppressing risk markets, started to fall.
At this point, everything was still developing according to a good script, and then things went wrong.
First, it coincided with US political struggles and a sharp drop in the US stock market, dragging you down hard; then there was trouble on our side, with Binance losing 6 billion; one external, one internal, you could only say it was a case of misfortunes never coming singly.
The current situation is: it might have started as just wanting to blow up some leverage and kill some contracts, but now even spot traders are being hit directly.
All I can say is, if you try to carve a mark on a moving boat, this cycle started teaching us lessons with a hard mode from the very beginning; more volatility, less time for rallies; if you don’t get on board, a few bullish candles will push the price to a level where you dare not enter; if you get on board, it won’t come down? It can keep falling and oscillating until you question your life.
Setting this tone early on, it’s foreseeable that this market cycle will be tougher than before.
There is no market that only falls without rising. As the dust settles on the US stock market side, I believe Bitcoin’s correction (whether the entire correction or just the first phase) is nearing its end. From late November to early December, I think the market won’t be very bad.
I still remember the last bull market when NVIDIA $NVDA repeatedly saved the day single-handedly. Now, without Huang, it's uncertain if NVIDIA will remain the same NVIDIA. It's truly a bittersweet feeling.
From a technical perspective:
1. This adjustment level targets the large upward wave from 10 to 243;
2. 0.382 retracement is at 154, 0.5 at 127, and 0.618 at 100;
3. The previous major consolidation range with turnover was between 90 and 150;
4. The weekly SMA200 moving average is at 124.
These indicate the approximate support zones.
The first wave of the sell-off was driven by news—a premeditated, carefully orchestrated squeeze targeting Huang and NVIDIA. After all, NVIDIA is the foundation of the entire AI industry, a visible juicy target. Since power has changed hands, naturally someone wants a piece.
Regarding the subsequent projection:
1. I believe this wave of sell-off is nearing its end, but overall it should resemble the N-shaped decline seen in MU and SNDK: a sharp first wave, then a big rebound, followed by a grinding third wave;
2. However, as the foundation of the AI industry, as long as AI continues to develop, no matter how much news NVIDIA releases, it will only be an adjustment. The downside is that after losing a generational leader like Jensen Huang, it’s uncertain whether NVIDIA will remain as rock-solid in future AI competition as it is now. In the short term, expect a rebound (about one month), then another adjustment (after one month), and after that, continued upward movement (no problem for the coming years). But the longer term depends on what NVIDIA looks like after the leadership change.
Why did Zhu Yuanzhang start by eliminating all the civil officials and aristocrats?
Because they really were a hindrance! Just look at the current party struggles in the US to understand—it's all about protecting their own little circles of interest, using every means possible, extremely vicious and disgusting.
They aren't blind to the bright future ahead; they're smarter than most people, otherwise they wouldn't have become part of these families or aristocratic clans.
But they can only be pushed along, driven by human greed and evil; one can only say that Musk and Huang Renxun are outstanding figures of the era, and this world doesn't deserve them…
An elderly northerner who moved to the south feels:
Having fewer children and ensuring good birth quality might really not just be a slogan. It feels like there's a pretty obvious difference between only children and those with siblings.
I have a friend’s family with 4 daughters and 1 son. Sometimes when we go out together, those 4 daughters clearly show on their faces how much they envy my son (an only child).
A discussion on my subjective perspective of the crypto space:
1. Core
$BTC and $ETH, as native core assets in the crypto space, have already been tested through several cycles; as the main BETA allocation in crypto, BTC has relatively low volatility but strong certainty; ETH has relatively higher volatility and can be unpredictable, but it offers more imagination (see Figure 1 ETH).
2. Old-timers
From the recent BTC rise from 57 to 87, many old-timers have fallen behind, including DOGE, XRP, ADA, BCH, ETC, LTC, and so on...
What does falling behind mean? BTC’s cycle is large, altcoins’ cycles are smaller. If altcoins cannot significantly outperform BTC during BTC’s rally, good market sentiment, and overall FOMO environment, then they are already stale. What we can see is that as traders have more tradable assets (like US stocks) and more ways to issue crypto assets, these old-timers’ ultimate fate is slow death (not dying outright, but gradually losing funding attention over time). ETC and LTC are already showing their endgame.
3. Platform tokens
Platform tokens like $BNB and $HYPE are completely tied to their platforms. If you want to allocate to them, I think you only need to consider whether they can significantly outperform BTC or ETH in the upcoming trading cycle. If the answer is no, then there’s no point. Platform binding has its advantages—platform support—but also its downsides—platforms can collapse. So, who still remembers the bankrupt $FTT?
4. Whales and pump tokens
Every cycle, I mean every cycle, new altcoins emerge in the crypto space (new rising altcoins). I divide them into Western and Asian types.
Western type: Similar to $ZEC, $NEAR, including last cycle’s KAS, RNDR, etc.; usually with long positioning times and growth cycles, possibly following an entire bull market, with manipulation cycles lasting 1-2 years or even several years. These are absolute high-quality ALPHA in a bull market.
Asian type: I won’t say much, there are too many. Manipulation cycles range from several months to just minutes. Personally, I think this money is better left for the pros to earn.
5. Back to the core
With the upgrades of trading platforms, around core assets, besides contracts, we now have more strategies, such as options, ETFs, 2X ETFs, DATs, and so on.
6. Still the E-guardians!
