wesley教授
wesley教授
Founder of Block Infinity, Poker player, Trader, Chinese whale, @drhashclub
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This morning, a bunch of chip news stacked together only makes sense when viewed collectively: Broadcom is planning to invest $60 billion aggressively into AI chips, Toshiba is doubling its data center HDD capacity for the first time in five years with a major move, and even Google has raised the price of its entry-level Pixel by $100 due to storage cost increases. On one side, AI infrastructure is being heavily funded, while on the other, costs are already starting to pass on to consumers. As a trader, I don't just watch this for entertainment—when capex is burning at this level, the key question is when the returns will catch up. The more fiercely money is burned, the louder the bubble will burst. $BTC is now tied to the tech giants; when they catch their breath, crypto will tremble along. Do you believe "this time is different," or do you believe in cycles?
Don't just focus on the Federal Reserve when dealing with risk assets. This morning, Japan's Finance Minister Katayama Satsuki made consecutive statements: the government is trying to convince the market that Sanae Takaichi "is not pursuing re-inflation," and also mentioned that the exchange rate trend has changed after joint intervention. To translate— the Japanese government is sending a warning to the market, fearing the yen will be sold off again. What does this have to do with the crypto world? The yen is the world's largest source of cheap funding; once carry trades are forced to close, the first to get drained are high-risk assets, and $BTC won't escape. Everyone remembers how the flash crash in August 2024 happened. Keep an eye on the yen, not just the K-line.
The U.S. Cabinet held a closed-door meeting at Camp David for several hours on Friday, discussing the next steps regarding Iran and the Houthis—such unannounced meetings last happened just days before Israel took action against Iran last year. In the comments, some are shouting "War is here, quickly buy $BTC to hedge." Hold on. The pattern over the past two years is clear: geopolitical escalation → oil prices rise → inflation sticks → rate hike expectations return → gold and $BTC both fall. War is currently not priced as a safe haven but as "more rate hikes coming." If you really want to understand the risk, watch the two-year U.S. Treasury yield, not the crypto price line. Do you think this time will be different?
Many people think "kongshen" means going all-in short, but that's wrong. Right now, I am indeed short on both $BTC and $ETH, but I keep a high beta position on the spot side—just in case the market squeezes, it helps me bear some of the sentiment and drawdown. My net position is bearish, not naked. This morning, $BTC surged to 87,000 then was pushed back to just above 84,000, leaving a long upper wick, which perfectly confirms this rebound lacks volume. Winners at the table rarely push all their chips out at once; the real edge is "direction + structure," not "direction + all-in." When you short, do you leave yourself a hedge?
Many people ask me why I short $ETH instead of just focusing on $BTC. The answer is two words: pick the weak. Today, BTC was pressed down from 87,000 to just over 84,000, dropping less than half a percent; ETH directly fell from 2,770 to below 2,670, showing a clear weakness. The leg that leads in a bull market and falls first in a bear market is always the most comfortable to short. I don't predict who will crash first; I just follow the strength ranking to take sides—the strong ones are left to the bulls to hold, the weak ones are handed to the shorts to collect. This is not about being bearish on the whole world, but about only taking the side with the highest win rate in the same wave. Look at this position card below for yourselves, see how the returns go, the data won't lie for me.
A set of positions that are easily dismissed as boring data actually hides the attitude of big money: the latest CFTC report shows speculators continued to increase their short positions on U.S. Treasuries this week—net short positions on the 10-year hit a new high at 900,000 contracts, with the 5-year and 2-year also accumulating.
In plain language: smart money is betting on "higher and longer" interest rates.
What does this have to do with crypto? A lot. The heavier the short positions on U.S. Treasuries, the more the market believes that financing costs won’t come down in the short term, and high interest rates are a chronic drain on all risk assets that rely on leverage—including $BTC—not a sudden death blow, but a slow bleed.
So I’m not in a rush to chase longs on the rebound. The flood hasn’t eased; don’t mistake the tide going out for a tide coming in. Do you trust the bond market more, or the crypto community’s optimism?
Last night was quite lively for the US stock market: the Dow Jones, S&P, and Nasdaq all rose together, with the Nasdaq up over 1%. SpaceX surged 7% in one go, and Tesla, Broadcom, and Nvidia were all in the green. Normally, with such strong risk appetite, $BTC should be rallying along.
But the reality? BTC and $ETH actually pulled back today.
This divergence is worth noting: the money entering this round is flowing into AI computing power and physical technology, not spilling over into crypto. When the narrative of "everything rising together" only drives the stock market while leaving crypto behind, it shows that the preference of incremental funds has changed.
Don't comfort yourself with "it will catch up sooner or later." Catching up is a result, not the logic. First, recognize where the money is going. Do you think this wave of money will turn back?
This morning $BTC once surged to 87,000, then dropped back to just over 84,000 by the time I wrote this, with a daily high-low difference of more than 3,000 points, all swallowed by a long upper shadow.
Why am I positioned on the short side? It's not out of spite. At the table, I only recognize the cards: US stocks all rose last night, AI and semiconductors led the gains, risk appetite is clearly recovering, yet crypto just didn't keep up — failing to rise in a favorable environment is itself a signal.
Squeezing shorts to bloodbath short-term bears is often the exhaustion's end, not the start of a reversal.
I won't call price levels, just my stance: a high-volume surge that can't keep pace with the broader market rebound makes me prefer the sellers' side. What do you think of this upper shadow?
Another day of all correct $BTC
Don't just focus on the crypto circle when dealing with coins. One piece of news tonight is worth remembering: Anthropic plans to expand its frontier engineering team to 10,000 people by 2027.
This is not just a single company's expansion; the entire AI industry chain is crazily attracting capital—capital, talent, and computing power are all flowing there. Money is limited, and every bit flowing into AI is being drawn away from elsewhere.
The most comfortable days for the crypto circle in the past two years were when liquidity was abundant and money had nowhere else to go. Now smart money has a sexier destination, and the pool of risk capital is quietly being drained. $BTC, which relies purely on liquidity for pricing, fears not any particular negative news, but rather "everyone going elsewhere."