無名先生
無名先生
主攻領域｜#Airdrops • 金融分析師、信息搬運工！
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Bitcoin mining difficulty will be cut by 7.8% the day after tomorrow, the largest reduction since June. Miners have faced two consecutive difficulty increases and are starting to struggle.
On October 16, difficulty increased by 5.92%, and on October 30, it rose again by 5.54%, nearly a 12% increase in one month.
During the same period, $BTC dropped from 81,600 to 73,600, a decline of about 10%.
Calculating the rise and fall, the same mining machine now mines about 20% less coin per day in USD terms than a month ago (excluding fees).
Machines that can't hold on are shut down, slowing block production: this round averages nearly 11 minutes per block, while the normal is 10 minutes. According to 's estimate, the adjustment will be around 8 AM Beijing time on November 14.
This difficulty forecast, cited by Wu, is based on data from the mining pool F2Pool. Meanwhile, according to Lookonchain, F2Pool co-founder Wang Chun has been buying back 5,246 $ETH at an average price of $2,054 these days.
A downward adjustment in difficulty does not mean miners' hard times are over, nor does it mean the coin price has bottomed out.
The most steadfast bull market supporter tonight is holding a short position.
Jiang Zhuoer posted at 22:34, starting with "There is no doubt the bull market is still ongoing," but in the same post he also wrote: "Forced to open a hedging short at 73k (essentially a stop loss)."
This afternoon I wrote that $BTC pierced through the 200-day moving average at night, hitting a low of 72,727. It was this very spike that hit his 5% stop loss line.
He admitted his mistake very specifically: after Binance was hacked, he bottomed out DeFi small coins at 76.6k, which he thought was fine; the mistake was simultaneously going full 100% long on BTC, mixing long-term and short-term positions into one.
Now BTC is around 73,600, just 600 dollars away from his short position, with the 200-day moving average at 73,191 right in between. His next target is 70.5k: if it falls there, he will close this short position.
Being bullish on the bull market does not mean being bullish this week, and saying bull market with your mouth does not equal having long positions on your account.
Sandisk pocketed $1.01 million, but in less than 6 hours, Nvidia caused him an unrealized loss of $2.48 million.
Still the same 0xc8b5 on Hyperliquid.
Last night at 19:41, Baird downgraded Nvidia's rating, he didn't run, from 21:20 to 22:43 he added 53,970 shares of $NVDA perpetual stock at an average price of 174.66.
From 23:55 to 00:14, Sandisk closed all long positions, pocketing $1.016 million.
At 05:55 this morning, Nvidia started to drop, followed immediately by widespread reports of Jensen Huang's second extramarital affair.
At 06:28, the Wall Street Journal said the board was preparing to remove Jensen Huang, and the price crashed from 165.48 to 156.14 in one minute.
He now holds 190,952 shares of Nvidia, 5x leverage, average price 174.43, with an unrealized loss of about $2.48 million; at the lowest point during that minute, the paper loss was about $3.49 million.
Nasdaq is still closed, this hit was taken on-chain. The forced liquidation price of 86.66 is far away, he can't be liquidated, but Sandisk's $1 million can't fill Nvidia's pit.
On the same morning, $BTC only dropped from 74,584 to 73,480, the crypto circle is just watching this time.
The same $BTC, one made 27.73 million and left, another lost 30.36 million and gave up.
According to Ember tracking, early this morning:
1000 coins hoarded 5 years ago at 46,700 entered Binance at 2 AM;
929.5 coins hoarded 1 year ago at 107,125 entered Kraken at 4:30 AM.
The fear and greed index is 28.
At 09:19, Arthur Hayes only posted "Nibble nibble nibble," without saying what he was nibbling on.
Now at 73,680, only about 500 dollars away from the daily 200 moving average at 73,170.
Transferring to an exchange doesn’t mean it’s already sold, and nibbling bit by bit doesn’t mean bottom fishing.
Last Thursday night, this person cut their long positions in SanDisk, Marvell, and SK Hynix on Hyperliquid within 23 minutes, suffering a real loss of 4.7 million USD, with SanDisk alone losing 2.81 million.
Today they are back, betting even bigger.
0xc8b5 bought a total of 136,982 shares of $NVDA stock perpetual contracts from 14:14 to 18:04, 5x leverage, average price 174.33, about 24 million USD. Meanwhile, they bought back SanDisk: 12.6 million USD, 2x leverage.
At 18:45, Nvidia touched 178.37, and their account showed an unrealized profit of about 550,000 USD.
At 19:41, Baird downgraded Nvidia to neutral, cutting the target price from 500 to 200. On Monday, after the news that Jensen Huang was being investigated by the board came out, it still maintained 500. The news went viral for 20 minutes, the price dropped to 175.28, and the unrealized profit once shrank to about 130,000, now about 190,000.
Before the US stock market opened, the chain took the hit for Nvidia first. At the same time, $BTC barely moved around 74,000. Tonight, it’s not the coins shaking, but the AI chips.
The New York Stock Exchange boss and OKX jointly launched a 7×24 hour stock exchange, set to open on November 23. But among the 62 companies initially invited, 56 said no.
Those who said no: Nvidia, Apple, Tesla, Amazon, Microsoft, JPMorgan.
The 6 that didn’t say no: Strategy, Coinbase, Circle, Robinhood, BitGo, Securitize.
Big Wall Street companies didn’t enter; those who did are still insiders from the crypto world. What you can buy on the weekend isn’t Nvidia, but Strategy holding 850,000 $BTC.
But the crypto world doesn’t care about this. At 21:00, after the news broke, $OKB surged from 97.5 to 103.53 in 6 minutes, up 6%, then dropped back near 100 in less than half an hour, losing more than half of the gain.
The NYSE’s endorsement doesn’t mean Wall Street has entered, and the shelf opening doesn’t mean anyone is buying.
The most steadfast bull market supporter tonight is holding a short position.
Jiang Zhuoer posted at 22:34, starting with "There is no doubt the bull market is still ongoing," but in the same post he also wrote: "Forced to open a hedging short at 73k (essentially a stop loss)."
This afternoon I wrote that $BTC pierced through the 200-day moving average at night, hitting a low of 72,727. It was this very spike that hit his 5% stop loss line.
He admitted his mistake very specifically: after Binance was hacked, he bottomed out DeFi small coins at 76.6k, which he thought was fine; the mistake was simultaneously going full 100% long on BTC, mixing long-term and short-term positions into one.
Now BTC is around 73,600, just 600 dollars away from his short position, with the 200-day moving average at 73,191 right in between. His next target is 70.5k: if it falls there, he will close this short position.
Being bullish on the bull market does not mean being bullish this week, and saying bull market with your mouth does not equal having long positions on your account.
The day before yesterday at 15:00, Maji closed out his ETH long position on Hyperliquid, transferring the remaining 50,000 U. That main account is still at zero.
Today at noon, he is selling monkeys.
At 12:56, he accepted a 7 WETH offer and sold Bored Ape #4628, receiving 6.93 $ETH
At 13:00, these 6.93 ETH were swapped for 14,285 USDC on CowSwap
At 13:02, USDC was sent out via Circle's cross-chain channel
At 13:03, the money arrived at Hyperliquid, going to the same address as the 50,000 U from the day before yesterday
From selling the ape to the money arriving at Hyperliquid, 7 minutes.
An hour ago, #4617 took the same route: received 7.425 ETH, swapped for 15,308 USDC two minutes later.
He still has 75 left. Roughly calculating at today's transaction price of 7 to 8 ETH each, selling all would be just over 500 ETH. $BTC has been fluctuating between 73,200 and 74,000 all morning; his monkeys are being sold off minute by minute.
Back then, the monkeys were his identity; now they are his cash machine.
In just over 3 hours, $170 million was traded, and $BTC reversed direction three times. The total loss from closing positions was $12,700, but the fees paid amounted to $44,100.
This is AguilaTrades' account today on Hyperliquid.
From 10:22 to 10:30, he kept adding short positions between 73,212 and 73,236. At 10:30, BTC hit the morning low of 73,174. At 10:40, he started closing shorts, and at 10:54 reversed to go long.
At 12:12, he closed longs and reversed to short; at 12:35, he closed the short positions, losing $35,000, and at 12:42 reversed to go long again.
Now he holds a 40x long position on 340 BTC, with an average price of 73,815, a liquidation price of 73,011, less than $900 away from the current price.
I wrote this morning that the key is to hold the daily 200 moving average at 73,191. His liquidation line is just $180 below this line.
If the moving average holds, he continues to bet; if it breaks, he only has a $180 buffer left.
Yesterday afternoon I wrote that $BTC currently needs to hold the daily 200 moving average, around 73,200.
At night it really broke below: at 00:37 the low was 72,727, about 460 dollars below the moving average, the first time since August 20.
But this morning at 8:00 the daily close was at 73,796, back above the moving average by about 600 dollars.
The needle pierced through but held at the close. However, this is also the lowest daily close since August 20: if the next one closes below 73,191, it won’t be called a needle anymore.
