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This is a long-term fan benefit post: #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切
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❶ Follow @OKX Growth Academy
❷ Leave a comment or ask a question in the comment section of this post:
• It can be a term you are familiar with but haven't fully understood yet
• Or a question you still don't quite get so far
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🎁 Extra benefits: Whenever the number of fans reaches a whole number, a lucky user will be randomly selected in the comments to receive fan benefits (peripheral items or random USDT of choice)
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OKX Growth Academy | Curated Guide Collection
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#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
The job market has clearly cooled down, but to judge how weak it really is, we can't just look at the single number of new jobs added that month; we can further break it down:
❶ New Jobs Added: Hiring has clearly slowed
In September, nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, significantly below the market expectation of about 85,000, indicating a clear slowdown in overall job additions.
❷ Revisions to Previous Data: Earlier employment was weaker than initially reported
July nonfarm payrolls were revised down from an increase of 21,000 to a decrease of 10,000, and August was revised down from 162,000 to 133,000, totaling 60,000 fewer jobs added over the two months.
👉🏻 The weakening in employment is not just reflected in September alone
❸ Wage Growth: Is it also slowing?
Average hourly earnings in September rose only 0.1% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year, providing another clue to the cooling labor market.
❹ Unemployment Rate: The rise also needs to be understood "why"
While the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, the labor force participation rate increased to 61.8%, meaning more people entered or stayed in the labor market, which could also affect the unemployment rate. Therefore, we cannot judge the extent of employment deterioration simply by seeing the "unemployment rate rise."
💡 Overall, the job market in September did indeed weaken further: weak new job additions, downward revisions, and slowing wage growth all provide evidence. Although the rise in labor force participation means the unemployment rate increase cannot be simply interpreted as "fewer jobs," it is not enough to overturn the cooling signals presented by the entire report on employment.
OKX Macro Pulse
U.S. nonfarm payrolls added 29,000 in September, far below market expectations of 90,000, with the previous value revised down from 162,000. Private sector employment increased by 46,000, also below the expected 85,000, with the previous value revised down from 127,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, higher than the expected 4.1% and up from the previous 4.1%. Year-on-year growth in average hourly earnings fell to 3%, below the expected 3.2% and the previous 3.1%. All four indicators fell short of expectations, clearly signaling a cooling job market. According to financial media reports, August job openings fell to 7.079 million, below the expected 7.225 million, with the previous value revised to 7.335 million, consistent with the weakening direction of this nonfarm payroll and jointly pointing to continued contraction in labor demand. Rising unemployment combined with slowing wage growth means both supply and demand in the labor market are weakening simultaneously, a combination that may influence market expectations for future policy paths. #9月非农今晚公布, interest rate hike expectations become the focus
🧧 Next round integer preview 【10000 fans】🧧
OKX成长学院
This is a long-term fan benefit post: #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切
👉🏻 What can you do?
❶ Follow @OKX Growth Academy
❷ Leave a comment or ask a question in the comment section of this post:
• It can be a term you are familiar with but haven't fully understood yet
• Or a question you still don't quite get so far
👉🏻 What can you get?
🎁 The Growth Academy will periodically select "questions" or "terms" from the comments, and users whose submissions are successfully selected will receive a trading gift pack
🎁 Extra benefits: Whenever the number of fans reaches a whole number, a lucky user will be randomly selected in the comments to receive fan benefits (peripheral items or random USDT of choice)
🔎 <Term Explanation> PMI｜Why is everyone focused on the "50" line?
When looking at PMI information, you often see:
"Manufacturing PMI returns above 50"
"PMI falls below the boom-bust line"
—PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) is obtained by surveying purchasing managers or relevant responsible persons in enterprises to understand changes in new orders, production/business activity, employment, prices, etc., used to observe changes in business operations.
📅 PMI is usually released monthly. Since PMI is based on surveys of current business conditions, it can often provide early clues about changes in economic activity, making it a leading indicator commonly used by the market to observe economic trends.
📊 How to interpret PMI? Focus on two dimensions:
❶ Position: Is it above or below 50?
Above 50 → Compared to last month, the related industry is generally in an expansion state
Below 50 → Compared to last month, the related industry is generally in a contraction state
❷ Change: Is it rising or falling compared to last month?
For example, if PMI rises from 48 to 49, although still in the contraction zone, the degree of contraction has eased;
If it falls from 52 to 51, although still in the expansion zone, the expansion pace has slowed.
💡 In summary, 50 tells you whether the current state is expansion or contraction, and the rise or fall in value tells you whether expansion or contraction is accelerating or slowing. The market also combines sub-items like new orders, employment, and prices to further observe changes in economic activity.
✍️ Interactive question: Which terms do you find confusing every time you see them, or which data do you only know as rising or falling but don't really understand? Feel free to submit in the comments 📖
🎁 Selected term questions will be replied to individually by the Growth Academy and arranged with random trading gift rewards
OKX Macro Pulse
The US September ISM Manufacturing PMI recorded 54.5, below the market expectation of 55 and down 0.1 points from the previous value of 54.6, remaining above the 50 threshold and continuing to expand manufacturing activity. Looking at the past four months, the index fluctuated between 53.3 and 55.6, with September readings in the middle of this range. The expansion strength weakened from the July high but did not slip into contraction territory. This time, the disappointment indicates that the momentum for manufacturing expansion is slightly milder than the market's previous assessment, but 54.5 is still above the threshold of 4.5 points, indicating that corporate purchasing managers remain optimistic about the overall current production and order situation. Manufacturing is one of the early observation windows for the US economy. Its continued expansion is often seen as evidence of overall economic resilience, but the slowdown in growth also indicates that the pace of expansion on the demand side has not accelerated further.
🔎 <Term Explanation> Nonfarm Payrolls｜How many jobs were added in the U.S.?
"#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 "
"Job growth slows, labor market cools"
"After Nonfarm Payrolls release, changes in Fed rate expectations"
— The Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) we often see in various news flashes usually refer to the monthly change in U.S. nonfarm employment, used to observe changes in the U.S. job market. It covers a large number of non-agricultural sectors such as manufacturing, construction, retail, healthcare, but excludes some positions like farm employment.
📅 Nonfarm Payrolls are usually released once a month, generally on the first Friday of each month for the previous month's data. The exact date may be adjusted due to holidays and other factors.
❓Why does the market pay attention to Nonfarm Payrolls?
Employment is one of the key references for the Federal Reserve to assess economic conditions and formulate monetary policy. Continued strong employment may indicate the economy remains resilient; a clear cooling in employment could change market expectations for future interest rate paths and further impact assets like the dollar, U.S. Treasuries, U.S. stocks, BTC, etc.
⚠️ Worse Nonfarm Payrolls do not necessarily mean risk assets will rise. If employment suddenly deteriorates sharply, the market may instead worry about a recession, causing risk appetite to decline.
❓What to focus on when encountering Nonfarm Payrolls information?
❶ Number of jobs added: More additions usually mean strong labor demand; a sustained slowdown may indicate the job market is cooling
❷ Actual value vs market expectations: Is there a significant beat or miss?
❸ Revisions to previous data: Have previously released employment figures been revised up or down?
💡 Nonfarm Payrolls are not just about how many jobs were added; you also need to consider market expectations and revisions to previous data to judge whether the job market is maintaining resilience, gradually cooling, or showing clear deterioration.
✍️Interactive question: Which terms always confuse you when you see them, or which data do you only know as up or down but don’t really understand? Feel free to submit in the comments📖
🎁Selected term questions will be individually answered by the Growth Academy and arranged with random trading gift packages as rewards
OKX星球
📅 What are the important milestones in October?
We have compiled the key macro data, US stock earnings reports, digital industry, and AI technology events worth watching this month into the "October Financial Calendar"
No need to follow every event; just bookmark the calendar and focus on market expectations and the latest developments before key dates arrive.
🧐 Which event are you most interested in this October? Feel free to share in the comments below ⬇︎ (Original image available for download)
【Strategy QA Special】Question from @乐川Fight
——Will the redemption time of spot staking affect smart arbitrage? #NewbieMustSee: Everything you need is here
✅ No. The main assets supporting staking rewards in smart arbitrage are ETH and SOL, both using liquid staking methods: after staking ETH, you receive BETH; after staking SOL, you receive OKSOL. The staked assets remain liquid and support quick redemption.
➡︎ Therefore, even if the price spread changes during strategy operation, you can stop the strategy at any time. When stopping, you can choose to keep all spot assets or sell all spot assets according to your needs.
➡︎ If you choose to keep all spot assets, the purchased spot will be transferred back to the trading account, and the BETH and OKSOL will continue to earn the corresponding staking rewards; if you choose to sell all spot assets, the purchased spot will be sold and will no longer earn staking rewards.
📚 ETH Staking QA https://www.okx.com/zh-hans/help/eth-staking-faq
📚 SOL Staking QA https://www.okx.com/zh-hans/help/how-do-i-stake-and-redeem-oksol-crypto
【Strategy Q&A】Rate Arbitrage: When the rate changes, should you keep holding?
🧐 When opening a position, the funding rate is very high, but during the holding period, the rate changes, and the original arbitrage space also changes accordingly. So at this point, does this strategy still have value to continue executing?
——Question source: @一土·兑巾 @Gavin— @咖啡奶爸
❶ First, look at the funding rate
High APY is an annualized reference value calculated based on the current rate, which will continue to fluctuate. If the funding rate drops significantly, it means the funding fee income you can earn next will also decrease.
❷ Then calculate profits and costs
After the strategy starts, first calculate the four transaction fees from spot buying/selling and contract opening/closing, which serve as the trading costs that this strategy needs to cover.
➡︎ Suppose an arbitrage strategy where both spot and contract values are 1000U.
At lv1 level, spot maker fee is 0.08%, contract maker fee is 0.02%, totaling 2U in fees for four transactions.
➡︎ If the contract funding rate in this strategy is 0.1%,
settled every 8 hours, expected daily funding fee income is 3U (enough to cover the fee cost).
➡︎ But if spot borrowing is also involved, then borrowing interest rate and holding time must be considered to calculate the interest generated during the same period. After deducting fees & interest, the net profit remains, and you need to evaluate how long it takes to become profitable.
👉 Therefore, after the rate changes, the core is to recalculate: how much more can you earn, how much more you have to pay, and how much will be left in the end. #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切
【Strategy QA Session】Question source @有 余
This question is actually asking: In extreme market fluctuations, buy and sell prices change rapidly, slippage increases, and arbitrage opportunities that initially look good may no longer be profitable after execution. In such cases, how can risk be minimized? 🔗Guide: https://oyidl.co/ul/DeHG7br
🧐 It can be divided into two stages: order placement and strategy operation
❶ At order placement:
• Spread rate: First check if the current spread is large enough and if there is sufficient arbitrage space
• Fees, borrowing interest, and other potential costs: Calculate if the remaining profit margin after deducting these costs is enough
• Market depth and expected execution price: During volatile markets, order book changes quickly, so pay attention to whether the actual execution price deviates significantly from expectations
• Settings like overprice, queue price, auto chase order, check interval, pause threshold: These affect whether orders on both sides can be executed smoothly and if execution prices deviate from expectations
❷ During strategy operation, focus on:
• Arbitrage profit: How much has actually been earned so far
• Fees, borrowing interest: How much cost has been incurred
• Total profit: Combine profit and costs to see the overall performance of the strategy
• Maintenance margin ratio, estimated liquidation price: Check if the current position risk is still within an acceptable range
👉 Simply put: Before placing an order, first assess if the arbitrage is worth doing; during operation, monitor actual earnings, costs incurred, and whether position risk has increased. #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切
【Strategy QA Special】Question source @玲珑骰子安红豆
—— Arbitrage strategies seek potential profit opportunities by exploiting price differences or rates (Guide: https://oyidl.co/ul/DeHG7br)
In theory, as long as exploitable price differences or rates exist, arbitrage opportunities exist. However, profitability depends on whether arbitrage returns can cover the associated costs.
🔸 For example, price difference arbitrage:
Trading fees are incurred during buy and sell processes, and the price difference itself fluctuates continuously with the market. Therefore, the strategy operation can focus on changes in the “price difference rate.” If the actual price difference rate keeps narrowing, it means the available arbitrage space is shrinking; at this point, combining data on fees and arbitrage returns helps determine whether the current opportunity is still worth pursuing.
🔹 Now consider rate arbitrage:
The core source of profit is the funding rate, so attention should be paid to changes in the current funding rate. If the funding rate keeps declining, the theoretical arbitrage space also shrinks; then, combining fees, borrowing interest, and other costs helps judge whether the remaining profit margin is still sufficient.
Therefore, it’s not about the strategy making a wrong judgment and then “intelligently correcting” it by some means, but first checking whether the current arbitrage opportunity still holds: price difference arbitrage looks at the price difference rate, rate arbitrage looks at the current funding rate, and by combining actual returns and trading costs, it judges whether the strategy is still worth running.
🌟 【Capture price differences or rates when opportunities exist, and promptly stop the strategy when the remaining profit margin is insufficient to cover related costs.】
#新手必看：这里有你需要的一切
【Strategy QA Session】Question source @Gavin—
——You can't just look at the win rate; you need to see if the long-term returns are sufficient to cover the risks.
The performance of the Martingale strategy is influenced by factors such as position scaling parameters, market volatility, and market conditions. Therefore, a high long-term win rate alone is not enough to determine if the strategy is effective.
What really needs to be observed is whether, under different market conditions, the strategy's returns can continuously cover trading costs and whether the risk remains within an acceptable range.
🔴 For example, key points to observe include:
• Long-term cumulative returns: whether the strategy can still achieve positive returns after a sufficiently long period;
• Maximum drawdown: the largest possible drawdown the strategy might experience under adverse market conditions;
• The match between returns and risk: whether the returns from a high win rate are enough to cover losses caused by large fluctuations;
• Performance under different market conditions: including sideways, sustained uptrends, and sustained downtrends.
In other words, to judge whether a Martingale strategy is effective, you cannot just look at "whether the win rate is high"; you should see if it can continuously achieve returns commensurate with risk over a sufficiently long time, across different market environments, and under significant volatility.
➤ Win rate is an outcome metric but not the sole indicator for judging strategy effectiveness. #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切
