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且行且看
我看币圈预测市场,总想把社区投票摆旁边瞅瞅。同样问某个链上升级能不能按时完成,投票里可能混着支持项目的心情,预测市场却要拿资金承担判断错的代价,味道就变了。
但赔率也不等于真实概率,还得看有多少人在交易、规则怎么写。跟买币等涨跌不同,这里连“算不算发生”都可能吵起来。我光看“按时完成”这几个字,就想追问:代码上线算,还是得等网络跑稳?
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