CryptoPainter
CryptoPainter
老朋友叫我“画师”，技术\数据分析和量化交易，提供各种刁钻角度看市场，用时间做杠杆。 实盘为Agent账户，正在测试的一个自进化策略系统，请勿跟单！
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I saw a conclusion about divorce based on long nails on Douyin, damn, that's so clever...
Then I searched for divorce certificate related pictures on Xiaohongshu, damn, it actually turned out to be true...
In statistics, if there is a verifiable pattern, then its underlying logic must have a reasonable explanation...
Why do some people think this drop was caused by BN?
The big market backdrop is there: Anthropic is about to go public. If you look at BTC's trend before SpaceX went public, you'll see that a super IPO has a clear draining effect on the entire risk asset market...
Before SpaceX went public, BTC fell from 82,000 to 60,000. The overall market demand was weak, supply was strong, and as long as there was capital willing to short on the futures side, the price could smoothly come down...
The November market movement is actually no different. In my view, demand is still weakening, while supply gradually strengthens as the IPO approaches. This big backdrop evolved into a short-selling trend through the self-reinforcing cycle of futures short-selling speculators...
I sincerely appreciate this sharp drop. The previous rapid rally caught me off guard, and I once worried the bear market was ending early. Now I finally feel much more comfortable...
CryptoPainter
The persistent futures-spot divergence lasting over a month has finally started to fade...
With the continuous accelerated price drop over the weekend, the spot premium has shown a very obvious increase, indicating that spot funds represented by Coinbase did not participate in the BTC sell-off throughout the weekend, and the main supply came from the futures market.
In plain terms, on this weekend window, on-exchange funds suppressed futures prices significantly to create a liquidation event targeting the bulls, successfully attracting a large number of futures short positions and forced stop-loss sales of long positions during the accelerated market below 70k.
Since open interest rapidly decreased below 70k, it can be considered that the main short-selling funds gradually closed their short positions after 70k, with the counterparty being retail traders chasing shorts and forced stop-loss long positions.
Of course, the above views are my subjective guesses based on spot premium and open interest, without clear evidence proving that this weekend's market move was deliberate. After all, the overall market environment is like this. A more likely logic is that speculative funds took advantage of the weak market backdrop to smoothly execute a beautiful harvest!
My logic is very clear now. The systematic algorithmic dollar-cost averaging (DCA) is always on, never stopping. Since June until now, I have accumulated 0.3 BTC purchases at an average price of around 63,000...
This DCA algorithm historically always manages to buy at relatively low bottom prices in backtests. The only downside is it cannot absorb enough chips...
So my strategy is to use this DCA algorithm as a reference. Once the price falls below the DCA system's average price, I manually increase spot purchases, directly buying the equivalent of six months' worth of DCA volume.
This effectively makes the DCA system a control group acting as a guinea pig. If even such a cautious small-scale DCA investor loses money, then the price must already be very cheap...
Logically, this is somewhat similar to trading studios hiring gamblers to trade as a reference for contrarian trading cases...
CryptoPainter
The persistent futures-spot divergence lasting over a month has finally started to fade...
With the continuous accelerated price drop over the weekend, the spot premium has shown a very obvious increase, indicating that spot funds represented by Coinbase did not participate in the BTC sell-off throughout the weekend, and the main supply came from the futures market.
In plain terms, on this weekend window, on-exchange funds suppressed futures prices significantly to create a liquidation event targeting the bulls, successfully attracting a large number of futures short positions and forced stop-loss sales of long positions during the accelerated market below 70k.
Since open interest rapidly decreased below 70k, it can be considered that the main short-selling funds gradually closed their short positions after 70k, with the counterparty being retail traders chasing shorts and forced stop-loss long positions.
Of course, the above views are my subjective guesses based on spot premium and open interest, without clear evidence proving that this weekend's market move was deliberate. After all, the overall market environment is like this. A more likely logic is that speculative funds took advantage of the weak market backdrop to smoothly execute a beautiful harvest!
The persistent futures-spot divergence lasting over a month has finally started to fade...
With the continuous accelerated price drop over the weekend, the spot premium has shown a very obvious increase, indicating that spot funds represented by Coinbase did not participate in the BTC sell-off throughout the weekend, and the main supply came from the futures market.
In plain terms, on this weekend window, on-exchange funds suppressed futures prices significantly to create a liquidation event targeting the bulls, successfully attracting a large number of futures short positions and forced stop-loss sales of long positions during the accelerated market below 70k.
Since open interest rapidly decreased below 70k, it can be considered that the main short-selling funds gradually closed their short positions after 70k, with the counterparty being retail traders chasing shorts and forced stop-loss long positions.
Of course, the above views are my subjective guesses based on spot premium and open interest, without clear evidence proving that this weekend's market move was deliberate. After all, the overall market environment is like this. A more likely logic is that speculative funds took advantage of the weak market backdrop to smoothly execute a beautiful harvest!
Subjective dollar-cost averaging starts now!
Bought one BTC at 65k!
Next, please, the bears keep increasing the pressure!
Don't stop!
CryptoPainter
ASR channel 4h level price has touched the oversold line, and then finally made a volume-increasing rebound...
In my personal view, the short-term supply has been fully released, both in futures and spot markets. Next, I plan to take profit in batches on all futures short positions and invest all the profits into spot dollar-cost averaging and subjective bottom-fishing.
Subjective bottom-fishing is similar to dollar-cost averaging, but with a larger amount. The plan is to buy one BTC each time in multiple rounds...
After all, my system tells me that although the short-term is in place, whether there will be a new trend in one or two months is completely unpredictable. So even if I am very optimistic about the cost-effectiveness of this price right now, I cannot go all in blindly...
ASR channel 4h level price has touched the oversold line, and then finally made a volume-increasing rebound...
In my personal view, the short-term supply has been fully released, both in futures and spot markets. Next, I plan to take profit in batches on all futures short positions and invest all the profits into spot dollar-cost averaging and subjective bottom-fishing.
Subjective bottom-fishing is similar to dollar-cost averaging, but with a larger amount. The plan is to buy one BTC each time in multiple rounds...
After all, my system tells me that although the short-term is in place, whether there will be a new trend in one or two months is completely unpredictable. So even if I am very optimistic about the cost-effectiveness of this price right now, I cannot go all in blindly...
CryptoPainter
Feels like it should be about right?
Altcoins only opened positions of tens of thousands of USDT and still made over 20k, that's really strange...
BTC has made three wave trades recently; yesterday the short at 68k took profit at 63k, the last accelerated drop was automatically abandoned, and this morning I shorted again on the rebound...
From the feeling, the short-term supply has already been fully released. If it continues to fall next week, that would be beyond my understanding...
My expectation is that it will fluctuate here for a week before briefly breaking a new low, but the bottom should be very close.
Feels like it should be about right?
Altcoins only opened positions of tens of thousands of USDT and still made over 20k, that's really strange...
BTC has made three wave trades recently; yesterday the short at 68k took profit at 63k, the last accelerated drop was automatically abandoned, and this morning I shorted again on the rebound...
From the feeling, the short-term supply has already been fully released. If it continues to fall next week, that would be beyond my understanding...
My expectation is that it will fluctuate here for a week before briefly breaking a new low, but the bottom should be very close.
CryptoPainter
For spot trading, you should still stick firmly to regular investment and keep buying!
However, since 67k seems a bit unstable, I’m hesitant about the originally planned manual subjective position increase. For now, I’ll just keep letting the automatic investment system work…
Some people are really bad, already shouting about breaking 30k, even someone as resolute as me is affected!
As I always say, if you made your long-term plan or strategy with a clear and rational mind, then during this highly emotional phase, it’s best to avoid refreshing Twitter too much and just follow your plan every day…
The new fins are really great!
Although the diving speed is slower, the oxygen consumption rate has clearly decreased. Now I can lie at a depth of 16m for 50 seconds...
Also, because the instructor said that practicing with fins can be done without wearing weights, it should be much easier for me to get the three-star certification later!
50 dives in 3 hours, burned 1000 calories again today!
Feeling comfortable 😌
By the way, the Matcha fins don’t refer to an exchange, but to a diving equipment brand...
We are all people of the old era now……
Sometimes I still miss the time 6-7 years ago, when the crypto circle had no Twitter, no Weibo Square, only the TradingView ideas page…
Did I make big money? Yes…
But it was all blown by the wind, gifted by luck…
In the early stage of the last bull market, I recklessly traded and went all in, and in the end lost nearly 1 million yuan. At the toughest times, I even had to live by selling stocks…
But later I realized, that was tuition, not a loss. Because the loss was so deeply engraved, I am now cautious and prudent…
Everyone understands the big principles and can talk about them fluently, but when it comes to execution, there is an unimaginably huge gap between knowing and doing!
So now I don’t even expect to earn back my former peak; those numbers mean nothing. The harder it is to forget, the stronger the obsession…
The first step to restart is to stop looking back. Keep the lessons learned, and throw away regrets and remorse.
I don’t expect to replicate past success; I only ask that every step in the future is taken steadily. If luck gives it, I accept it; if luck doesn’t, I don’t force it…
More important than making big money is: "feeling happy"…
路遥Trader【自我拯救版】
This bull market trough capital: 4 million
This bull market asset peak: 18 million
Now
Final principal: 200,000
150,000 in spot trading, 30,000 in contracts, 20,000 playing on-chain
600,000 outside the circle, enough for 2 years of daily expenses, still a bit in Myanmar A...
In this bull and bear cycle, I am a complete loser
Ready to study hard, reflect, and prepare for the next round 🙂🙂🙂
This is the sixth year of full-time trading
If I lose again, I can only update my resume and look for a job
Who’s hiring a down-and-out trader? 🤣🤣🤣
