TraderS | 缺德道人
TraderS | 缺德道人
宏观 × 美股 × Crypto 交易员 拆解美联储、战争与全球资金流 提前捕捉 美股 / 原油 / BTC / 金银 / 风险资产拐点 和读者一起看金融风暴 🌪 推特同名TraderS | 缺德道人，账号TraderS18
38Following
1.9kfollowers
Feed
Livestream
Feed
If we explain today's drop from Dazi's perspective, it's that after yesterday's emotional sell-off, the market temporarily breathed a sigh of relief with a relatively smooth handover and a rebound, but gradually started to realize the situation again. Dazi's internal management is too flat; apart from Lao Huang, no one can take over in the short term. The person needs to understand all departments' work, maintain good relationships with these 60 executives, understand technology, plan for the future, maintain good relations with countries worldwide, and coordinate all supporting factories in the industrial chain...
In short, the CEO's capability requirements are too high; it's not something that can be handled by parachuting in someone, and no successor has been cultivated internally.
If NVIDIA suddenly suffers a brain death, then the US AI giants, which have maintained high valuations through unconventional means like ladder cloud cross-shareholdings and nested structures, truly face a risk of funding chain rupture. Once a stampede-style stock crash occurs, the current drop is nothing to worry about. $NVDA #美联储鹰派信号密集释放，12月加息节奏分歧显现
TraderS | 缺德道人
Today's broad market decline is likely caused by a combination of previous bottom-fishing profit-taking, the rise in the 10-year US Treasury yield, and the upcoming liquidity withdrawal triggering a rush of funds.
On the 10th, it was mentioned that the liquidity withdrawal might be later than previously expected. According to the Treasury's plan: the rhythm from now on might be tightening for two weeks, loosening for one month in December, tightening again from January to mid-February, and then continuous easing starting late February.
From now until the end of November: withdraw about 110 billion, the tightest period
December: inject about 175 billion, the loosest period
From January to mid-February: withdraw about 175 billion again
From late February onward: continuous easing
However, there is also the possible government shutdown on December 12. The Republicans might take advantage of the procedural control in both chambers, but funding requires 60 votes in the Senate, needing Democratic cooperation. The Democrats will probably only agree to a two- or three-month extension, delaying until they are in power to negotiate.
This means the new deadline will fall between mid-February and mid-March, coinciding with the debt ceiling. If the debt ceiling is raised, the easing starting late February will disappear. If deadlocked, money might still be injected, but public opinion and market sentiment will be focused on the shutdown and default risks. Liquidity recovery and sentiment recovery will be out of sync, making it difficult for the market to improve. #美联储鹰派信号密集释放，12月加息节奏分歧显现
Today's broad market decline is likely caused by a combination of previous bottom-fishing profit-taking, the rise in the 10-year US Treasury yield, and the upcoming liquidity withdrawal triggering a rush of funds.
On the 10th, it was mentioned that the liquidity withdrawal might be later than previously expected. According to the Treasury's plan: the rhythm from now on might be tightening for two weeks, loosening for one month in December, tightening again from January to mid-February, and then continuous easing starting late February.
From now until the end of November: withdraw about 110 billion, the tightest period
December: inject about 175 billion, the loosest period
From January to mid-February: withdraw about 175 billion again
From late February onward: continuous easing
However, there is also the possible government shutdown on December 12. The Republicans might take advantage of the procedural control in both chambers, but funding requires 60 votes in the Senate, needing Democratic cooperation. The Democrats will probably only agree to a two- or three-month extension, delaying until they are in power to negotiate.
This means the new deadline will fall between mid-February and mid-March, coinciding with the debt ceiling. If the debt ceiling is raised, the easing starting late February will disappear. If deadlocked, money might still be injected, but public opinion and market sentiment will be focused on the shutdown and default risks. Liquidity recovery and sentiment recovery will be out of sync, making it difficult for the market to improve. #美联储鹰派信号密集释放，12月加息节奏分歧显现
The market is so eager for good news that even a PPI data, which is usually not that important and actually didn't perform that well tonight, has significantly reduced the probability of a 50BP rate hike in December #美联储鹰派信号密集释放，12月加息节奏分歧显现
Tonight's data release is basically over, but those old folks at the Fed are about to start talking again. Let's see if they can avoid spouting nonsense this time. The market is already in such a mess; logically, they should at least pretend to be the good guys.
TraderS | 缺德道人
Tonight's PPI data can be interpreted in both directions; the overall annual and monthly rates are both below expectations.
From a journalistic perspective, it can be seen as below expectations, but also as the highest value in nearly four years.
Regardless, the overall impression is better than Tuesday's CPI, serving as a small comfort in the cold wind? #美联储鹰派信号密集释放，12月加息节奏分歧显现
Tonight's PPI data can be interpreted in both directions; the overall annual and monthly rates are both below expectations.
From a journalistic perspective, it can be seen as below expectations, but also as the highest value in nearly four years.
Regardless, the overall impression is better than Tuesday's CPI, serving as a small comfort in the cold wind? #美联储鹰派信号密集释放，12月加息节奏分歧显现
TraderS | 缺德道人
The PPI data will be released again tonight at 9:30. In this market, sensitive and turbulent autumn, even slightly worse data could be the last straw.
Intuitively, the poor CPI data on Tuesday might suggest that tonight's PPI won't be great either. But actually, a hot CPI doesn't directly equate to a hot PPI, as their statistical scopes differ.
However, what currently impacts the market is still the rebalancing of various factions after Trump's election loss weakened his power control.
At present, market expectations, especially the overall month-on-month compared to previous values, have dropped significantly. After the data is released, news headlines might look better, but the key is whether it's better than expected.
Let's wait. This time, if we can't guess, we won't guess. The market is not suitable for gambling at this stage. Besides the PPI, there will also be Federal Reserve officials' speeches and randomly updated uncertain events. In a volatile market, good risk control and taking profits when appropriate are very necessary. A trending market may still take another month or two to arrive.
The PPI data will be released again tonight at 9:30. In this market, sensitive and turbulent autumn, even slightly worse data could be the last straw.
Intuitively, the poor CPI data on Tuesday might suggest that tonight's PPI won't be great either. But actually, a hot CPI doesn't directly equate to a hot PPI, as their statistical scopes differ.
However, what currently impacts the market is still the rebalancing of various factions after Trump's election loss weakened his power control.
At present, market expectations, especially the overall month-on-month compared to previous values, have dropped significantly. After the data is released, news headlines might look better, but the key is whether it's better than expected.
Let's wait. This time, if we can't guess, we won't guess. The market is not suitable for gambling at this stage. Besides the PPI, there will also be Federal Reserve officials' speeches and randomly updated uncertain events. In a volatile market, good risk control and taking profits when appropriate are very necessary. A trending market may still take another month or two to arrive.
Today, the news about Huang Renxun's third extramarital affair hasn't really escalated, but Bitcoin just dropped below 68k, Ethereum fell below 1900, market sentiment remains poor, and liquidity hasn't improved. It's said that Nvidia employees have already started a joint petition asking Old Huang to return and be given another chance.
Although Old Huang is Chinese and his situation might not be replicable, how could those around Trump not feel threatened?
Today, they managed to take down the weakest link, Huang Renxun. After this success, their appetite might grow to target Musk, Hegseth, Pence, and eventually Trump himself. So where is the bottom line for Trump's team? Will they just let this happen? $NVDA #英伟达宣布黄仁勋辞去CEO职务
Damn, Chuan, are you serious? Are you really going to replace Cook? Gay definitely won't make gender mistakes... Colorful graphics cards are probably going to sell like crazy🌚$NVDA #英伟达宣布黄仁勋辞去CEO职务
