美股投资young

美股科技投资者 ai狂热者分享每日快讯. all in ai

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's earnings report next Tuesday: I'm not too worried about revenue, but I'm concerned whether the new CEO will dare to fully commit. Let's look at the numbers first. The market expects this quarter's revenue to be between $108.8 billion and $109.4 billion, with earnings per share (EPS) of $2.47 to $2.49, both up about 90% from the same period last year. The company’s own guidance in August was $108 billion. Last quarter's revenue was $96.2 billion, EPS $2.22, beating expectations by $0.13. In the past eight quarters, seven have exceeded expectations. For the data center segment, Visible Alpha's consensus estimate is $101.8 billion. So delivering $109 billion should not be a big problem. Orders were placed several quarters ago; the CEO change won't make signed deals disappear. So what makes this earnings report challenging? First, the guidance. How much will they give for next quarter and what about 2027? This is Kress's first direct conversation with Wall Street as interim CEO, and as a CFO by background, she is naturally conservative. If she gives a very safe number, the market will interpret it as "the new management is unwilling to commit." Second, Rubin. The consensus expects Rubin to contribute $48.5 billion this quarter, but analyst estimates range widely from $37.6 billion to $65.5 billion, showing significant divergence. Rubin's volume ramp-up pace will determine whether can continue Blackwell's growth next year. Third, gross margin. The consensus for data center gross margin is 73.7%, down from 78% in the past two years. If it continues to decline, it indicates increasing competition and cost pressures. Fourth, customers. After this turmoil, are any major customers delaying orders, taking a wait-and-see approach, or shifting orders to and in-house chips? This can only be discerned during the Q&A session of the earnings call. Looking at market sentiment, six institutions downgraded their ratings in one day on Thursday, including KeyBanc, Melius, Evercore, William Blair, Oppenheimer, and Bernstein. Options are betting on about an 8% move up or down by next weekend. Expectations have already been set very low, which is actually good for the earnings report. My judgment remains the same: in the short term, this earnings report is very likely to clear out the bad news; if the numbers come through, there is room for a rebound after the stock has been oversold. But a rebound is just a rebound. The company's long-term certainty has been discounted; forward-looking prospects, leadership, and growth imagination are hard to return to the era of Jensen Huang. So in terms of trading, I won't use options to bet on the earnings, nor will I chase the stock just because it rebounds. If it really rises, I will treat it as an opportunity to reduce holdings.

This week's is like a chaotic weather forecast, what to do? young has a clever trick! Use young's strategy on OKX to carve out your own path in such a volatile market! 🌫 Fog As soon as the midterm elections ended, the market started worrying about the Democrats tightening data center approvals. On November 5, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped about 12% in one day, fell about 9%. What’s being crushed isn’t the immediate orders, but the AI expansion pace for the next few years. ⚡ Thunder Reportedly, Jensen Huang admitted to being unfaithful to his wife, and the board has launched an independent investigation. The espionage allegations are not confirmed yet, and he still holds the CEO position. Oh, young is really unlucky, young didn’t cheat, so why is my account bleeding? But as long as the investigation isn’t clear, this cloud will hang over the stock price. 🌧 Rain After the US market closed on November 17, earnings were released. Consensus expected revenue around $108.8 billion, EPS about 2.47. At the end of October, it was still above 200, now it’s dropped near 178. How heavy this rain will be depends on whether the guidance can blow away the previous two clouds. Fog, thunder, and rain all squeezed into the same week. Going out empty-handed will get you soaked, rushing in bare-chested is even more dangerous. So this week I prepared three umbrellas on OKX 👇 ☂️ Long-handled umbrella: Buy 185 call Path: Options → Simple Options → xNVDA → Expiring 11/20 185 call, premium 6.67 Break-even 191.67 If it rises to 200 → more than $8 left per share Stuck below 185 → 6.67 all lost Betting on a decent rebound after earnings, maximum loss fixed at order time. 🌂 Folding umbrella: Hold xNVDA, then sell a 195 call Switch to “Sell” on the same page, select 195 call, can collect 2.74 premium now. Selling calls requires xNVDA as margin, so this is a “spot + options” two-legged position. If it doesn’t exceed 195 at expiration → collect 2.74 steadily, lowering cost basis to 175.32. If it breaks 195 → sell at 195, max profit about 19.68 per share, roughly 11%. If it really falls → 2.74 cushions the fall first. Suitable for those bullish on NVDA long-term but don’t believe one earnings report will push it back to 200. 🚶 No umbrella, wait for the rain to stop before going out: Stock perpetuals Don’t touch before earnings. Wait for guidance upgrades, next day’s open holds, volume follows. Then open a small position with perpetuals, can exit anytime if wrong. Among the three umbrellas, I like the folding umbrella best. NVDA is originally a stock to hold long-term; during earnings week, instead of guessing direction, better to turn waiting time into premium. If you really want to gamble, use the long-handled umbrella, max loss just over 6 bucks. Tokenized US stocks, simple options, stock perpetuals—all switchable within the same OKX account. Bullish or bearish, buy or sell, all done on one page. When US stocks open at night, the whole operation can be completed inside a crypto account. @misaENFP @star_okx @okx @okxchinese #OKX达人 #交易TradFi就来OKX

Next week is the most critical week of the year, with four major events squeezed into three days. On Tuesday after the US stock market closes, will release its earnings report. This is the first earnings report since Jensen Huang left, and the interim CEO Kress will take the call. On Wednesday, the House of Representatives will hold a closed-door hearing about . That same evening, $ANT will be priced. On Thursday, $ANT will be listed on Nasdaq. A bit later, from December 8 to 9, the Federal Reserve meeting will take place. The rate hike is basically decided, with the market betting on either a 25 basis point or 50 basis point increase. I will explain clearly what to watch for each event, what counts as good, and what counts as bad. earnings report: The market expects revenue around 109 billion USD, and the company’s own guidance from August was 108 billion. This number is very likely to be met; orders won’t disappear just because of a CEO change. The real things to watch are twofold. First, whether they dare to give high guidance for the next quarter and for 2027. Second, how Kress talks about Rubin’s progress during the call, and whether customers have delayed orders due to this turmoil. If the guidance is high and the tone steady, that means the bad news is fully priced in. If the guidance is vague or they start saying "need time to assess," the stock price will likely drop further. Options are currently betting on about an 8% move by next weekend. I won’t bet on that 8%. The hearing is closed-door, so the content won’t be fully revealed immediately, but if even a little solid evidence about "chip flows to China" leaks out, the whole sector will get hit. If there’s no new info, it’s just the boot dropping. $ANT pricing: The range is $70 to $78, reportedly oversubscribed by 6 times. If priced at the high end or raised, it means money is still flowing and AI appetite remains strong. If pushed to the low end, it means people are really short on cash these days. $ANT first day: This is the most important signal of the week. If it rises on the first day, the money sold out of chips in recent days will slowly come back. If it opens below the IPO price, the market will think this AI rally is already overextended, and the major indexes might retest the lows from November 5. So this week, I only have one chart in my mind: If earnings guidance is steady and $ANT doesn’t open below IPO price, both pass, then the semiconductor index has a chance to push up to the 200-day moving average at 10,875. If one passes and the other doesn’t, it will continue to oscillate within the range, with the November 5 low as support and this week’s high as resistance. If both fail, then we need to seriously watch if the November 5 lows hold: SPY 733, QQQ 647, SOXX 130.75. I won’t bet on direction in advance this week. I’m keeping cash on hand and will adjust as each event unfolds. Four major events in three days — the winners won’t be those who guessed right, but those who still have bullets left that week.

This week, the S&P rose 2.5%, the Nasdaq rose 2.3%, finally breaking a 4-week losing streak. But fell 12.75% for the week, dropping for 6 consecutive weeks—the longest streak since 2012. The market rose, the leader fell; this week was such a contradictory market. Let's review this week. On Monday, semiconductors surged, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) rising from 9467 to 10034. I said at the time this was an oversold rebound, filling a gap, not a reversal; political factors were still significant. On Tuesday, it fell back again, with SOX bottoming at 9777 and SPY at 744.86. On Wednesday, it gapped up, SOX surged to 10787, the week's high, but still short of the 200-day moving average at 10875, failing to break above. On Thursday, Jensen Huang resigned. opened with a gap down to 151, intraday low 148.80. But SOX didn’t fall; and actually rose over 5% each. Everyone was betting that " weakens, giving rivals and suppliers a chance." On Friday, this story was overturned. fell 8.75%, fell 4.8%, SOX fell 3.4%, even briefly dropping below 10,000 intraday. The market suddenly realized isn’t just selling chips; it’s financially supporting the entire AI chain. If the leader stumbles, no one escapes. But overall for the week, chips still rose. SOX rose 8% for the week, SOXX up 9.35%. rose 19%, 18%, 14.6%, 13%, 12.8%, 12%, 10.8%. Only and fell. What does this mean? Money hasn’t fled semiconductors; it just shifted from to others. Looking at the market structure, I think this is the most important thing this week. The low points of the big bearish candle on 11/5: SPY 732.71, QQQ 647.05, SOX 8997, SOXX 130.75. At this week’s lows, SPY was 741, QQQ 662, SOX 9467, SOXX 137.97—all above the 11/5 lows. On Friday, four negative factors piled up: PPI year-over-year 6.5%, continued to fall, was downgraded, $ANT’s IPO was raising money. SPY closed down only 0.38%, and the equal-weighted S&P was still positive. Negatives kept hitting, but lows kept rising. I call this "testing the bottom." Resistance is also clear. SOX was pushed back twice when trying to reach 10700-10800, never breaking above the 200-day line at 10875. SPY’s weekly high was 763, still some distance from 775 on 11/4. So the current position is in a box between the 11/5 low and this week’s high. Next week will be the week this box breaks. Tuesday is earnings, Wednesday is the House hearing, Wednesday night $ANT pricing, Thursday IPO. December rate hike is almost decided, just whether it’s +25 or +50 basis points. My view hasn’t changed. November 9 was a rebound; this week was testing the bottom. As long as the 11/5 low isn’t broken, it’s a higher low, establishing a phase bottom. To break upward, two things must happen first: ’s guidance reassures the market, and $ANT’s first day doesn’t break the issue price. If both happen, SOX has a chance to break above the 200-day line. If the 11/5 low really breaks, I’ll admit I was wrong and reassess. Operations remain the same: reduce positions on rebounds, then buy back piece by piece by price level, not all at once. No leverage. No buying short-dated options before earnings to gamble. The biggest takeaway this week is seeing clearly that can fall 12% while the market still rises 2.5%. The leader is catching down, the market is testing the bottom—both can happen simultaneously.

$ANT will be listed next Thursday. This IPO, combined with private placements, can raise up to $90.4 billion, making it the largest in U.S. stock market history, surpassing SpaceX's $86.2 billion from five months ago. Let's clarify the timeline first: pricing on Wednesday 11/18, trading starts on Nasdaq on Thursday 11/19, ticker ANT. This time, 825 million shares will be issued, with a price range of $70 to $78. At the upper limit, the IPO itself can raise $64.35 billion. Additionally, there is a $26 billion private placement, with buyers including , , , , , , ; alone contributed about $10 billion, at the same price as the IPO. The underwriters also have an over-allotment option of 123.75 million shares; if fully exercised, total fundraising will exceed $100 billion. At the upper limit, the fully diluted valuation is about $1.405 trillion. The valuation from the May funding round was $965 billion, and a few weeks ago the market was still speculating about reaching $2 trillion. The valuation dropped from $2 trillion to $1.4 trillion; Amodei himself said they want to "promise less, deliver more." I think this is a smart approach, not squeezing out every last penny. Leaving some room for the secondary market makes it less likely to break the IPO price on the first day. How is the demand? Bloomberg says subscriptions exceeded about 6 times. CNBC reports institutional demand is even stronger than SpaceX's at the same stage; the roadshow was fully subscribed on the first day. Retail allocation is about 20%, while typical IPOs only allocate 5% to 10%. Now let's look at the business itself. Revenue for the first three quarters was $33.24 billion, compared to only $2.5 billion in the same period last year, a roughly 12-fold increase. Third quarter alone was about $17 billion. By the end of October, annualized revenue reached $81 billion, $10 billion more than at the end of September. Growth is slowing down. Third quarter quarter-on-quarter growth was about 47%, first quarter was 132%, second quarter was 144%. Still very fast, but no longer doubling repeatedly. Profit needs to be viewed separately. Net loss for the first three quarters was $104 billion, a scary number, but most of it comes from fair value remeasurement of convertible bonds and derivatives, not actual cash losses. Operating loss, which truly reflects operations, was $1.3 billion for the first three quarters, compared to $5.2 billion in the same period last year, significantly narrowed. The biggest risk lies in the computing power bill. $ANT's signed purchase and lease commitments total about $895.4 billion, almost all for computing power and infrastructure. In the first three quarters, spending on computing power and infrastructure alone increased by $14.4 billion, up 329%. Amodei said very frankly in a talk with Dimon that buying enough computing power without overextending themselves is their toughest challenge. They usually buy a bit less and replenish if demand exceeds. This IPO, frankly, is to raise money to cover this computing power bill. Based on $81 billion annualized revenue and $1.4 trillion valuation, the price-to-sales ratio is about 17x. Not outrageous for a company growing revenue 12 times a year, but the premise is that growth doesn't drop too fast. So is this good or bad for the broader market? Short term, it's a cash drain. $90 to $100 billion in new shares need buyers; funds wanting a bigger share must sell other AI stocks to raise cash. The chip and new cloud sectors fell sharply this week, while the equal-weighted S&P barely dropped—that's why money stays in the stock market but shifts within the AI chain. Also consider total supply. Last month announced about $98 billion in stock issuance; combined with $ANT, this year's U.S. equity financing has already surpassed 2021. With so many new shares to absorb in one year, the high-valuation batch will definitely be pressured. One more thing many overlook: the $26 billion private placement is not subject to underwriters' lock-up period. In the long run, I think this isn't necessarily bad. Most of the money $ANT raises will eventually turn into computing power orders. The $895.4 billion commitment is paid to , , SpaceX, new cloud providers, and behind them , , , . The seven companies in the private placement are also its suppliers, effectively investing money while locking in future orders. So after this money is taken out, it will return to the chip chain in the form of orders, just more slowly. Here's how I'll view next week: If pricing lands at the upper end or even is raised, and the first day doesn't break the IPO price, it means the market appetite for AI remains. Some of the money sold these days will flow back into chips, and this week's low is very likely a temporary bottom. If pricing is pressed to the lower end or the first day breaks the IPO price, it means money is really tight, and the broader market may retest the 11/5 low. In the same week, Tuesday is earnings, Wednesday is the hearing and $ANT pricing, Thursday is listing—three events packed together. I won't rush to buy $ANT on the first day, nor will I leverage before then. $ANT