On September 16, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate hike, raising the interest rate range to 3.75%-4.00%. The vote was unanimous, 12-0, the first time this year.
On the same day, the 10-year US Treasury yield surpassed 5%—the first time it has reached this level since 2007.
In plain language: You can buy US Treasuries with your eyes closed and earn 5% annualized return without taking any credit risk.
According to traditional finance textbooks, this is the harshest curse on non-interest-bearing assets.
What does a 5% Treasury yield mean? It means the opportunity cost of holding gold or Bitcoin has been pushed to an extreme high. Your money earns interest every day in Treasuries, but holding BTC yields nothing.
Logically, BTC should be crushed.
But what did BTC do?
The day before the rate hike, BTC dropped to a monthly low of $75,900. After the hike, within two days, it rallied from $75,900 to above $81,000.
According to QCP Capital data: about $260 million in shorts were liquidated after the rate hike. On September 17, the US spot BTC ETF recorded a net inflow of about $159 million, with BlackRock's IBIT attracting $183.7 million in a single day.
The rate hike happened, 5% Treasuries are there, and BTC rose 6%.
The textbook was torn up again.
Why?
Because the worst expectations were already priced in before the rate hike.
Before the hike, the market's expected probability of this rate increase once reached 93%. Everyone knew it was coming. Everyone exited early. BTC fell from $82,000 to $75,900, fully reflecting the expected drop.
At the moment the hike was implemented, what did the market find? The dot plot showed a median year-end rate of 4.1%. After this hike, it might be over.
Not "endless hikes," but "just this one."
When the worst macro scenario is fully priced in, the exhaustion of bad news turns into good news. The roughly $260 million short liquidation was essentially shorts being forced to cover, not longs buying. What should fall, fell, and there must be some volatility.
Additionally, Galaxy Research head Alex Thorn provided a technical reassurance: BTC reclaimed the 50-week moving average. Historically, this line has been an important signal confirming the bottom of bear markets. ETF funds are flowing back, USDT market share is approaching a death cross, and capital is moving from stablecoins back into risk assets.
In the short term, this divergence has support.
But don't celebrate too early.
Bloomberg Intelligence's chief macro strategist Mike McGlone said something very sobering:
"US Treasury yields around 5% are becoming increasingly attractive compared to alternative assets that generate no interest income."
He directly pointed out: a 5% risk-free rate won't force you to sell BTC, but it will change your calculations when deciding where to put your next dollar.
To translate: you might not sell the BTC you already hold. But for your next new money, you'll hesitate between "buying BTC" and "earning 5% risk-free interest."
That hesitation is the biggest ceiling over BTC.
Moreover, what really matters is not whether the Fed hikes or not. It's the 10-year Treasury yield—if it stays above 5% while the Fed remains on hold, the pressure on non-interest-bearing assets will persist. More importantly, what is behind the 5%? If it's due to a strong economy and improved capital returns, funds will flow into dollar assets; if it's due to inflation expectations and fiscal deficit premiums pushing up long-term rates, BTC and gold will face more sustained pressure.
McGlone's judgment is straightforward: this cycle is different because the Fed has not shifted to easing but continues tightening. Risk assets have entered the "final stage."
So, BTC can ignore 5% Treasury yields for a day or two, but not for two months.
The divergence is a trading window, not a new normal.
$81,000 held, the 50-week moving average was broken through, ETF funds returned—these are all true. But the 5% risk-free rate is there, testing every holder's patience every second.
Don't mistake short-term resilience for long-term immunity.
$BTC$ETH$ZEC#BTC重返8万美元，资金面出现修复
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