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峰哥的交易日记
峰哥的交易日记
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81250美元的BTC,你敢追吗? 先看表面:利空扎堆,但价格不跌反涨。 9月16日美联储三年首次加息25bp,日本央行同步加息,CLARITY法案推进失败。按剧本,BTC应该崩。但它只跌到75000就刹住了车,然后V型反转,四小时爆掉3亿空单,一路干到81700,创9月7日以来新高。现在周末横在81250附近,小实体震荡,像极了暴风雨前的平静。 第一件事:加息加了个寂寞,市场用脚投票 三年来第一次加息,日本央行还来凑热闹,结果BTC从75000弹到81700。为什么? 因为利空落地就是利好。市场早就把加息price in了,真加的时候,空头反而成了燃料。4小时爆3亿清算,绝大多数是空单——那些赌"加息必崩"的人,被机构抬轿子抬到爆仓。 第二件事:ETF资金回来了,而且是真金白银 9月18日,美国现货BTC ETF净流入4.33亿美元。Fidelity一家贡献3.11亿,BlackRock 1.08亿。17日还有1.59亿。前两天的大幅流出,两天就被买回来了。 机构不是"暂时抄底",是持续建仓 ETF累计净流入超550亿,总AUM约1020亿 现货ETF买走的BTC,短期内根本不会回到市场流通 第三件事:K线打出了一个"教科书级反转" 日线从75000-76000强支撑区V型反转——这个位置是前期低点加斐波那契38.2%共振区。放量大阳线突破80000,一口气收复20日、50日、200日均线,50日线上穿200日线,金叉。 RSI日线64,没超买。4小时Supertrend翻多,支撑上移到78600-79000。 阻力:81700-82000(近期高点+清算密集区)→ 82500-83000(站稳才算真突破) 支撑:80800-81000(震荡下沿)→ 80000(心理关)→ 78500-79000 → 76500-77000 一句话:82000是生死线,80000是底线。破了80000,这波反弹就是骗炮。 多空对决,你自己看 一边是: 加息落地,利空出尽,空头被血洗3亿 ETF单日流入4.33亿,机构买盘凶猛 日线金叉+收复200日均线,技术面转多 SOPR重回1.00上方,获利盘被买方完全承接 一边是: DXY美元指数100.22高位,压制风险资产 油价99-107,通胀担忧没消,10年美债收益率4.9-5% 资金费率+0.010%,多头略拥挤 周末流动性差,周一ETF若变脸,随时回踩 操作策略 短线选手: 现价81250附近小仓试多,目标82500-83000,止损80800下方。稳健的等回踩80800-81000企稳再加,或等放量突破82000确认后追。跌破80000且反抽无力,轻仓做空,目标78500。 波段玩家: 等日线收盘站稳83000以上再重仓,目标88000-90000,止损80000。 长线信仰者: 70000-80000分批定投。距126000高点回调35%,拿6-12个月,赌的是加息周期见顶+机构持续吸筹。目标先看100000。 加息你怕,监管你怕,ETF流出你怕,现在ETF流入、空头爆仓、技术金叉,你还是怕。 那你到底什么时候才敢买? BTC从126000跌到75000你没跑,现在弹回81000你反而想跑了? 82000这个位置,你是追多还是等回踩? $BTC $ETH $ZEC
峰哥的交易日记
峰哥的交易日记
ARB at $0.21, are you still chasing it? First, look at the surface: after a surge, a pullback, some are shouting "it's peaked." ARB rose from 0.135 on September 15 to 0.23 in four days, nearly doubling. Today (from 0.23 it fell back to around 0.21), a slight intraday decline, fluctuating between 0.208-0.213. After a 24-hour volume spike, it retreated, RSI once hit 84 indicating overbought. First thing: Standard Chartered's research report is no joke. Standard Chartered set a $10 target for ARB by 2030, with a clear path: 0.50 by the end of 2026, 1.50 in 2027. You might say Standard Chartered is painting a pie in the sky, but they’re not guessing—the core logic is "TradFi on blockchain." The SEC just granted an "innovation exemption," allowing compliant venues to trade tokenized US stocks for five years. Arbitrum and Robinhood Chain are right at this point. Second thing: ARB is no longer just an "airdrop governance token," it now has revenue. This is the most critical change, many haven’t realized yet. Robinhood Chain launched its mainnet in July, using Arbitrum’s tech stack, paying licensing fees to the ecosystem via AEP. On-chain fees once exceeded those of Arbitrum One itself. DAO monthly revenue reportedly surged to about $5 million, several times previous levels. Those buying ARB in 2024 are buying air. Those buying in 2026 are buying a ticket to TradFi on-chain. Third thing: The technicals tell you this is the first pullback after the main uptrend. 2024 high was $2.4, then a steady decline to around 0.07 in June-August 2026. Started rising from 0.08 in mid-late August, accelerated in September. Daily chart has crossed above 50/100/200 EMA (0.11-0.13 range), mid-term trend officially turned bullish. From 0.135 to 0.23 in four days, that’s the main uptrend. Today’s pullback to 0.21 is the first decent retracement after the main uptrend, not a top. Strong support: 0.208 (today’s low) → 0.193 (Fib) → 0.17 (previous high platform) Resistance: 0.223-0.230 (this round’s high) → 0.25 psychological level As long as the daily close doesn’t effectively break below 0.193, the short-term structure remains intact. Breaking below 0.193 requires reassessment. Bull vs. bear, you decide. On one side: Standard Chartered’s $10 target, Wall Street coverage begins SEC innovation exemption, tokenized US stock policy implemented Robinhood Chain brings real revenue, DAO monthly income $5 million RWA scale keeps growing, Arbitrum leads in deployments Daily chart above all major EMAs, mid-term trend bullish On the other side: Doubled in four days, RSI overbought, short-term profit-taking needed Hyperliquid chain-level TVL briefly caught up, capital rotation CLARITY Act stalled in Senate, regulatory uncertainty remains Fed just hiked 25bp, high rates suppress risk assets Weekend liquidity thin, prone to spikes Trading strategy Short-term players: Aggressive: light long positions at 0.208-0.212, stop loss below 0.198 Conservative: wait for pullback to 0.193-0.200 with volume contraction and stabilization before adding First target 0.228-0.232, second target 0.25 Reduce half position near previous highs, don’t be greedy Stop loss on longs if daily close breaks below 0.193, reassess at 0.17 Swing players: Build positions gradually at 0.19-0.21, stop loss 0.17 Targets 0.35-0.5 Long-term believers: Dollar-cost average blindly at 0.17-0.21, add every 10% drop Betting on TradFi on-chain + RWA explosion + Robinhood Chain revenue growth Targets $1.5-3 (2027), $10 is the 2030 dream ARB now is like ETH in 2020— Back then everyone said "Ethereum is too slow, will be replaced by new chains," but what happened? It became the settlement layer for TradFi. At $0.21, you’re not buying an L2 governance token, you’re buying Wall Street’s ticket to bring stocks, funds, bonds on-chain. At $0.21, do you dare to get on board or keep waiting? $BTC $ETH $ARB

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