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There is still no effective information about the US and Iran. Yesterday, Iran confirmed it had received feedback from the US, and now it is time for both sides to weigh the pros and cons. In fact, regarding the US and Iran, it has been said before that both sides need to balance the peace and hardliner factions. Resuming negotiations is easy, but what's harder is how to present a reason for presenting oneself as a victor. #伊朗收到美国反提案, the US-Iran differences still remain. Currently, media reports indicate that earlier this week, while the US and Iran were communicating with the US, Iran did not stop attacking and interfering with the Strait of Hormuz, and the US even reported that Rubio had expelled the Iranian delegation. Whether Rubio's incident is true or not, it's clear that hardliners within the US and Iran are hard to suppress. So Iran's silence is actually a good thing. Not rejecting the US proposal means the leadership is weighing the pros and cons and seeking an opportunity to return to negotiations as a victor. On the other hand, it's worth noting that this week, media have repeatedly reported that energy exports in the Strait of Hormuz have returned to pre-war levels, but Brent's price hasn't dropped effectively. Clearly, the pricing logic of the energy market = supply environment + capital pricing + geopolitical risk premium. If energy exports from the Strait of Hormuz really return to pre-war levels and the US-Iran situation has reached the stage where Iran is responding, why is Brent's pricing still so high? The answer is simple: market confidence in the recovery of pre-war energy output data + confidence in the US-Iran situation remains insufficient. Personally, I even doubt whether the so-called energy output has returned to pre-war levels