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挖矿的小羊
挖矿的小羊
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2013年至今,比特币的10月行情,13次里涨了10次。平均回报率18.52%,中位数12.73%。2021年10月涨了42.92%。2013年10月直接翻了60%。 在币圈,这有个专门的名字:Uptober。 每年到了这个时候,全网开始吹。KOL们开始喊“10月必涨”,社区开始画大饼,你开始想“是不是该梭一把了”。 但今天我想聊的是:Uptober为什么会在2025年失灵,以及今年的10月到底在赌什么。 🧊 先泼一盆冷水:2025年的10月。 教科书式的Uptober开局。比特币在10月初就冲上了126,080美元的历史新高,连续7年10月收涨的纪录看起来稳如泰山。 然后特朗普甩出100%对华关税威胁。 10月10日,一天之内,超过190亿美元的杠杆仓位被清算。加密史上最大爆仓日。 到月底,比特币收跌约4%。Uptober变成了Rektober。 7年连涨,一夜终结。 规律这东西,从来都是用来被打破的。 💊 今年的9月,确实漂亮。 比特币9月收涨6.33%-7.33%,创下2013年以来最佳9月表现。以太坊9月涨8.77%,同样创历史第二好9月成绩。 要知道,历史上9月是比特币最差的月份——平均回报率负2.34%。连续四个9月收涨,是现有数据里最长的纪录。 三季度比特币累计涨幅逼近40%,有望创2017年以来最强三季度。 9月旺,10月更旺?历史规律说:是的。 但市场从来不是只靠历史规律运行的。 🎯 今年的10月,桌上摆着三张牌。 利好牌: 9月+6.33%,历史第二好9月,为10月奠定动能 花旗将比特币12个月目标价从8.2万上调至11.3万,理由是ETF资金流入增加和宏观环境改善 30年期美债收益率从5.6%高点回落,短期风险偏好改善 多位美联储官员暗示10月不会继续加息,10月加息概率从70%降至约25% 利空牌: 美联储9月16日加息25bp至3.75%-4%,为2023年以来首次加息,全票通过 虽然10月加息概率降温,但年内仍可能再加一次 9月30日ETF资金转为净流出1.487亿美元,打断了连续9日净流入的势头 10年期美债收益率9月底一度冲至5.289%,30年期5.632%,双双刷新52周高点 变数牌: 一张清算地图显示,比特币30天杠杆多头敞口高达43.5亿美元,集中在约74,170美元附近 如果价格跌破关键支撑,这些仓位会形成连锁爆仓,引发瀑布 去年10月10日一天清算190亿美元的教训,还热着呢 🤔 所以核心问题不是“涨不涨”。 核心问题是:季节性动能和宏观压力,今年谁大? 看多的逻辑:9月打出历史级表现,ETF三季度净流入约63.4亿美元,花旗上调目标价,10月加息概率降温到25%。 看空的逻辑:美联储已经动手加息了,而且全票通过。10年期美债收益率5.2%以上,无收益资产天然吃亏。ETF月末资金流向转负。43.5亿美元杠杆多头悬在头顶。 两边的论据都是真的。这就是市场最折磨人的地方。 💡 我自己的判断,就一句话: 季节性可以支撑趋势,但无法抵消宏观冲击。 9月涨得好,是因为美联储加息落地后“利空出尽”+ETF资金集中涌入。但到了10月,这个逻辑要面对两道关: 第一关:10月2日非农就业数据。 数据太强→加息预期回归→比特币承压。数据太弱→经济衰退担忧→风险资产照样承压。 第二关:10月14日CPI数据。 这是美联储10月底议息会议前最后一份关键通胀数据。通胀不下来,加息预期就会重新定价。 两道关都过了,10月底的议息会议才可能给市场喘息。 过不了,别说Uptober了,Rektober在等你。 / 说句实话。 Uptober是统计事实,不是命运保证。 13次里涨了10次,概率77%。听起来很高。但赌场里胜率77%的游戏,你押错的概率也有23%。 而且2025年的教训摆在那里——当宏观风暴来袭,季节性只是纸老虎。 190亿美元的清算,不会因为“历史上10月平均涨18%”就不发生。 市场不会因为你相信规律,就对你手下留情。 / 最后一句 今年10月,不是“涨不涨”的问题。 是“能不能扛住加息压力”的问题。 季节性给你的是概率。宏观给你的是现实。 别把概率当承诺。 $BTC $ETH $ZEC #9月非农今晚公布,加息预期成焦点
挖矿的小羊
挖矿的小羊
79.70. On January 19, 2025, TRUMP coin hit its all-time high. 2.06. On October 2, 2026, the price after the dinner announcement. Drop: 97.4%. After the announcement, the price once surged to $2.25, then immediately fell back. Increase: 10%. Then, nothing more. This is not the first time. In April 2025, when the first dinner announcement came out, TRUMP coin rose from $9 to $14.40, a 60% increase. In March 2026, the second dinner brought a 36% increase. Now the third time, 10%. What do you see? The same card played three times. The first time was a royal flush, the second a straight, the third—not even a three-pair. 💊 Breaking down the illusion of the “Dinner Market Rescue” First, the details of this dinner: November 22, Washington Trump National Private Club The first 185 registered investors invited VIP status scored by “participation,” locked on November 12 Slogan: “The world’s most exclusive dinner” Three “legendary figures” will attend—the names not yet announced The club clearly states: “No attendee will have the opportunity for a private meeting with the president” Translation: You spend money to buy coins to climb the ranking. Once ranked high enough, you get a ticket. The president will come in, but you won’t meet him. You will get a commemorative poster and a bottle of “TRUMP perfume.” At the last event, Trump only made a “brief appearance.” Some participants didn’t even get to see him. This time they make it clear in advance: don’t expect a private meeting. The organizer knows the last experience wasn’t great. 📉 Why is the “Dinner Effect” getting weaker each time? Because the market isn’t stupid. The first dinner sold novelty—the president hosting a crypto dinner was unprecedented. The second sold inertia—some still hoped for a miracle. The third, the market has seen clearly: This isn’t about “benefits for holders,” it’s about “creating reasons to buy.” When a token needs constant dinners, posters, and perfume giveaways to maintain its price, it’s no longer an asset. It’s an ongoing paid fan meeting. Analyst Crypto Patel puts it bluntly: this crash was “entirely predictable” because the token lacks real use cases, ecosystem, and roadmap, relying solely on brand appeal and political hype. 🔪 The issuer’s “self-rescue” is even more chilling TRUMP issuer Fight Fight Fight is doing one thing: raising $200 million to $1 billion to establish a “digital asset reserve company” to hoard TRUMP coins. In plain language: The project team plans to buy their own coins to prop up the price. Think about this logic. When a company needs to set up a special entity to buy its own product, you have to ask the simplest question: Who will take the risk? The issuer hoards coins themselves. After hoarding, the price goes up. Then what? Who buys? More painfully, Fight Fight Fight controls about 65% of the total supply—out of 1 billion TRUMP coins, about 650 million are in their hands, gradually unlocking. On one hand, they say they will establish a treasury company to “hoard coins,” on the other, they hold 650 million waiting to unlock. Guess what, after unlocking, will they choose “long-term holding” or “sell while liquidity lasts”? 😐 The overlooked number Nansen data: by the end of June 2026, 988,905 accounts lost money on TRUMP coin, with cumulative losses of $3.81 billion. About two-thirds of buyers are at a loss. Meanwhile, Trump himself earned $636 million from this project. You lost. He profited. Is this a “win-win”? No. It’s “you won a ticket to his fan meeting, he won your principal.” / Final calculation From $79.70 to $2.06 took 20 months. From $2.06 back to $79.70 requires a 38x increase. The first dinner brought a 60% increase. The second 36%. The third 10%. At this decreasing rate, the next dinner’s increase will probably only buy a bottle of TRUMP perfume. Will the third dinner bring 38x? You do the math. $BTC $ETH $TRUMP

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